Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 shipped 19M units FY 2017, it has peaked

How much will PS4 end up selling?

< 100M 0 0.00%
 
100M-110M 5 13.89%
 
110M-120M 12 33.33%
 
120M-130M 12 33.33%
 
130M-140M 3 8.33%
 
140M-150M 1 2.78%
 
> 150M 1 2.78%
 
over 9000 2 5.56%
 
Total:36

I just saw the results for the financial year 2017 for Sony, and realized the PS4 has officially peaked. On page 9 you see the sales of the PS4, and it states, in FY 2016 it sold 20M, in FY 2017 it sold 19M and the forecast for FY 2018 is 16M. So the shipments has slightly dropped and Sony expecting it to drop further. So PS4 is over it's peak.

This does not mean doom, it is the normal life-cycle, but it is a big deal for a sales website, as it helps determine the final outcome. So, what do you think with this information, how much will PS4 have sold after everything is said and done? And when do you expect PS5?

I personally think PS4 will go past 100M, but I'm not sure it clears 110M. And I still think a normal 6-year-cycle with a release of PS5 at the end of 2019 seems likely. That is still 1 and a half year away.

EDIT: Thinking about it, my prediction for 100M-110M is probably off. I thought about it, and with this projection from Sony PS4 is at 95M in April 2019 and the next financial year should be around 10M, so 105M. The last 5M should be possible. So with some more thought into this, I think the 110M-120M window is more realistic.

Last edited by Mnementh - on 01 May 2018

3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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123 million



100m is an easy goal for it



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I expected it last year, but Sony did an excellent job at it. I don't think PS5 will come in 2019. 2020 is more likely.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

Mnementh said:

I personally think PS4 will go past 100M, but I'm not sure it clears 110M.

Thats almost lol worthy.
Next year around this time itll be 95-98M shipped (end of Q1 in 2019).

PS5 isnt comeing until november 2020 imo, thats like ~19 months of sales (after the 95m-98m mark).
So its basically 100% sure thing, it ll cross 110M.  (By the time PS5 launches it ll be 115-120M)

I think it ends up in the 130-140M range, by the time of 2025 or so, if Sony makes a 7nm Super Slim for 149$.

Last edited by JRPGfan - on 30 April 2018

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The PS4 will have one last push when Sony finally reduce the RRP cost of the base PS4 to under $200 (£200), this may or may not happen this year...but I fully expect it will happen early next year. Once this happens (alongside a price reduction for the Pro as well), then sales will sky rocket for a bit, before the PS5 is released.

Also, don't forget that there are still a decent chunk of console owners that still use the PS3, so when these people eventually upgrade when the cost is sub $200.

Even if the PS5 releases at the end of 2019....I'm sure we will still see solid PS4 sales for a good 2-3 years as we are only 4.5 years into it's cycle...and I fully expect it to have a longer cycle than the PS3.

Even after all that..I will go with a conservative prediction of 118m.



Prediction (June 12th 2017)

Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

The forecast of 16m will certainly be increased, sales to consumers aren't going to drop enough to let that be a viable number.

But let's assume that this number (16m) does not increase anyway:

If PS5 Launches Nov. 2019:

FY18 - 16m (Total: 95m)
FY19 - 11m (Total: 106m)
FY20 - 5m (Total: 111m)
FY21 - 1.5m (Total 112.5m)

If PS5 Launches Nov. 2020:

FY18 - 16m (Total: 95m)
FY19 - 13m (Total: 108m)
FY20 - 10m (Total: 118m)
FY21 - 4m (Total 122m)
FY22 - 1m (Total 123m)


But I fully expect the forecast to be increased to 17-18m.

 

Also another thing worth noting, while last FY shipped less it was the highest sales to consumers by far.

FY16 - Shipped: 20m   Sold to Consumers: 17.51m
FY17 - Shipped: 19m   Sold to Consumers: 20.03m

Obviously sales to consumers is what reflects actual demand rather than shipments, and it's these sales that will drive the current 16m forecast up.

Last edited by Barkley - on 30 April 2018

LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Yeah, it seems that FY 2017. was peak year for PS4, I will stick to my prediction that PS4 will have around 120m LT.



When the Nintendo Wii peaked, it was around 70 million units sold. But 2019 is gonna be a wicked year for Sony, and I guarantee you anyone who's a PlayStation fan that hasn't bought a PS4 most certainly will when The Last of Us 2 launches in Q3 2019. (Ghost of Tsushima and Death Stranding will boost console sales for 2019 as well)



JRPGfan said:
Mnementh said:

I personally think PS4 will go past 100M, but I'm not sure it clears 110M.

PS5 isnt comeing until november 2020 imo, thats like ~19 months of sales (after the 95m-98m mark).

According to VGC-numbers, I looked to the peak-year (calendar-year) for sales.

PSP peaked 2008, Vita released 2011.

DS peaked 2008, 3DS released 2011.

PS3 peaked 2011, PS4 released 2013.

X360 peaked 2011, Xbox One released 2013.

Wii peaked 2008, WiiU released 2012.

WiiU peaked 2014, Switch released 2017.

So, with the exception of the transition Wii-WiiU (and Wii had an unusual life-cycle), the successor followed 2-3 years after the peak year. Remember also that 3DS and Switch came early in their respective year, not late. That leaves only the transition from PSP to Vita at a full 3 year-window.

Now the shipments for PS4 peaked already in the financial year 2016 according to Sony, sales peaked in 2017 (calendar-year) according to VGC. We know now 2017 is the peak year in sales, as Sony projects much lower shipments for the next financial year. So while November 2020 is still supported by the data, it is actually the latest possible date according to earlier transitions. The data suggest more that the successor follows after two years, but a bit longer (WiiU->Switch, DS->3DS) is possible. So yes, I'm a bit sceptic to the November 2020 date.

Anyways, my prediction for 100M-110M is probably also off. I thought about it, and with this projection PS4 is at 95M in April 2019 and the next financial year should be around 10M, so 105M. The last 5M should be possible. So with some more thought into this, I think the 110M-120M window is more realistic.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter