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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - [Updated] [Super Bold Prediction] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild Will Sell 20m Lifetime

 

Will it?

Yes 19 24.68%
 
No 33 42.86%
 
It will be very close 25 32.47%
 
Total:77

Update 3: The game is at 11.78m as of September 30th according to Nintendo, having shipped 1m in the last quarter (Jul/Aug/Sep).

Yes, I know it will sound crazy for most of you, but 10m also sounded like too much before the game released. Hear me out: The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild will reach 20m LT combined.

You may ask what's the point of this thread if it's going to hypotetically take at least 5 years for it to reach those numbers, the answer is simple: we will know if it will be able to reach that amount by this year's end. At first, I thought after the holiday season the game would slow down a lot, but it seems like that's not the case. It's still charting very well on Amazon (well, before it went out of stock), it did over 400k this year already in roughly a month according to VGC and the attach rate seems to remain high till this day. 

Another shocking thing: Zelda is outlegging Mario in Japan.

Nintendo will announce their figures later this month, so we'll know for sure how it did this quarter. After analyzing the weekly sales in the Zelda comparison thread I run (http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228876&page=1) I came to the following conclusion/prediction:

2017: 6.7m

2018: 3.9m

2019: 2.8m

2020: 1.8m

2021: 1.5m

2022 onwards: 1.2m+

Wii U version: 2m LT (it's at 1.5m as of December 31st)

To note: Zelda BotW already outsold Twilight Princess.

Last edited by LipeJJ - on 10 December 2018

Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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Things are so slow around here tonight. Hi Lipe! This is possible.....but I think it will fall short. 2019 and onward is where it gets iffy for me. But hey, if you're correct, or even close, you'll have some great bragging rights. I'm almost ready for bed. Goodnight Lipe!



Chinese food for breakfast

 

OP's numbers still won't add up even in one of the more highly optimistic cases ...

Assuming that's how it'll all play out with 2022 and 2023 doing 1.2M each, it'll still be shy of 20M units ...

In one of BotW's worst weeks in 2017 it did 40K so it's not hard to imagine that it'll become next year's average thus watering down OP's numbers further and I have no idea why Nintendo would do a reprint for a system out of production such as the Wii U ...



COKTOE said:
Things are so slow around here tonight. Hi Lipe! This is possible.....but I think it will fall short. 2019 and onward is where it gets iffy for me. But hey, if you're correct, or even close, you'll have some great bragging rights. I'm almost ready for bed. Goodnight Lipe!

Yeah, it's very quiet and slow this late. And I'll be sure to brag about it in some years. Good night, I'm off to bed too!

fatslob-:O said:
OP's numbers still won't add up even in one of the more highly optimistic cases ...

Assuming that's how it'll all play out with 2022 and 2023 doing 1.2M each, it'll still be shy of 20M units ...

In one of BotW's worst weeks in 2017 it did 40K so it's not hard to imagine that it'll become next year's average thus watering down OP's numbers further and I have no idea why Nintendo would do a reprint for a system out of production such as the Wii U ...

They're close as I believe it will be close in the end anyway, give or take. 

It doesn't need to do 1.2m in 2022 and 2023 each, it only needs to do 1.2m from 2022 onwards. The numbers on OP give us ~18m on Switch, then you add at the very least 1.5m from Wii U and we have at least 19.5m.

Btw, 40k would be a great baseline for 2019 and it's the opposite of what you said... it helps the case of my prediction. That would be more than enough to meet the 2.8m mentioned, as it would put it at 1.8m up until october, then it would only need a million during the holidays. I think this won't be much of a problem for Zelda.

Anyway, I guess we'll have an awesome idea later this month when figures are released.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

I'd dance in the streets if a Zelda game ends up that high.

I sadly don't think this'll happen however, I think you're too optimistic from next year onwards, maybe even this year onwards even. I also doubt they gave the WiiU version another shipment, so it shouldn't be much higher than the number we already know. It keeping up with Mario in Japan is interesting though.

I hope this would happen, but I think we can be happy if the game gets to something like 12m on Switch. That would already be amazing.



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close and best selling Zelda ever considering unique SKU (BOTW Switch) but not 20 millions.

sadly



Switch!!!

Now this is a bold prediction, 20m will be quite a feat to achieve I can however see the game hitting 15m though especially with the Switch's performance and attach rate.



Won't happen. Maybe if Nintendo had better DLC plans.
But games that sell that much are always games that have a multiplayer component.
GTA with GTA online
Call Of Duty
Mario Kart Wii
Wii Sports
Battlefront (it didn't sell 20 millions though)

I don't think even Smash Bros Switch can sell that much, Mario Kart 9 could though



LipeJJ said:

Btw, 40k would be a great baseline for 2019 and it's the opposite of what you said... it helps the case of my prediction. That would be more than enough to meet the 2.8m mentioned, as it would put it at 1.8m up until october, then it would only need a million during the holidays. I think this won't be much of a problem for Zelda.

Anyway, I guess we'll have an awesome idea later this month when figures are released.

Actually, it makes your case weaker since 2019 would total upto 2M units instead of it doing 2.8M and we have yet to see how Zelda will perform in the slower quarters (Q2/Q3) too this year ...



I politefully disagree, but I would love to be proven wrong in this case. Between Wii U and Switch versions +Digital it's probably well over 10 million, I'd say 12-13 million is definitely a possibility. Especially if eventually there's a Nintendo Selects.