Forums - Sales Discussion - February 2018 NPD predictions thread

which console will sell the most

Switch, by a lot 7 11.11%
 
Switch, barely 31 49.21%
 
PS4, by a lot 10 15.87%
 
PS4, barely 7 11.11%
 
XB1, by a lot 3 4.76%
 
XB1, barely 5 7.94%
 
Total:63

February is a 4 weeks month.

 

Important release

        

 

Possible hardware impact:
- XB1 pricedrop + PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds bundle

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K


Last year
[PS4] 398K
[XB1] 215K
[NSW] N/A

 

Predictions thread archivie

2018 predictions threads: January;
2017 predictions threads:
 January; FebruaryMarch; April; MayJune; July; August, SeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2016 predictions threads: JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember
2015 predictions threads: January; February; March; April; MayJune; JulyAugustSeptemberOctoberNovemberDecember



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

Around the Network

[NSW] 365K
[PS4] 356K
[XB1] 338K



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

X - 250
4 - 240
S - 260



[NSW] 353k
[XB1] 335k
[PS4] 306k



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

Hmm.

PS4 396K
NSW 352K
XB1 265K



Around the Network

NSW 400K
PS4 330K
XBOX One 325K



We all know Sony domination is a real thing and there is nothing Microsoft or Nintendo can do about it....

Send a Friend Request On PSN :P

Ryng_Tolu said:

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K

Wasn't the #1 predictor on ResetEra different from this? Is this just better-guess estimates?

Well, assuming that's less than a couple of percentage points off from reality, that means that the weekly average for the PS4 is down slightly YoY (maybe 3-4%), while the XBO's is up a fair amount (maybe around 18-20%). I'll use that for my February predictions, though my guess for the Switch is going to have to be just that.

NSW: 400k
PS4: 375k
XBO: 360k



[NSW] 365k
[PS4] 355k
[XB1] 325k

Last edited by Green098 - on 28 February 2018

Shadow1980 said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

 

Last month
[NSW] 270K
[PS4] 254K
[XB1] 235K

Wasn't the #1 predictor on ResetEra different from this? Is this just better-guess estimates?

Well, assuming that's less than a couple of percentage points off from reality, that means that the weekly average for the PS4 is down slightly YoY (maybe 3-4%), while the XBO's is up a fair amount (maybe around 18-20%). I'll use that for my February predictions, though my guess for the Switch is going to have to be just that.

NSW: 400k
PS4: 375k
XBO: 360k

Those are the numbers i have using the 5 best predictions on ERA, is not only the best one.

 

Actually, i have pretty precise numbers with PS4 at 253-254K, and XB1 at 234-235K. The Switch is the only console with a fair big range, 255K to 285K, the ~270K is the estimate i choise but could be wrong +-15K.



2020 predictions: NSW 21m, PS5 6m, XSX 4.5m, PS4 9m, XB1 3m
(PS5 and XSX predictions will most likely change after we know enough about them)

I'm not going to predict numbers but the I think the order will be NSW>X1>PS4.

switch will continue it's insane momentum.

last month xb1 was on ps4's heels, and this month the discounts will push it up and over.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.