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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - How long until the Switch outsells the 3DS and XB1?

When the first month sales report for the Nintendo Switch report came out, it was obvious that it was going to be a continued success, and it really wasnt a question of if it would outsell the Wii U, but when that would happen, and it just happened. So now I feel like it is only obvious to assume that at some point the Switch will surpass the sales of the Xbox One and 3DS since both have been slowing down in sales.

My prediction - The Switch has sold just under 15 million units, so for simplicity lets say the Switch will sell 16 million for its first year. Assuming Nintendo can keep production up and continue to deliver a library of great games, they should have no problem selling 20 million units per year. So I believe by late 2019 the Switch will be caught up the the Xbox One, and by the end of 2020 (assuming we dont get a Switch 2 by then) it will surpass the 3DS.



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The Switch has sold 15m as of now. Assuming it can reach 17m by March, it may take a year and a half to reach XBOne numbers. Pokemon and Animal Crossing would do the trick, plus whatever other seller Nintendo can get their hands on. The XBOne has no bigg system seller on the horizon (at least not as big as the Switch ones), but there's the chance they surprise us. Around the 2nd half of 2019 we'll see the Switch outselling the XBOne, if everything goes on as usual.

The 3DS will take a while to beat, but I'm sure Nintendo have some redesigns up their sleeves for that. 2021-22 at best.



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Xbone i think Holiday season 2019
3DS i think 2021



Nothing to see here, move along

X1 I think around Q4 2019 while 3DS could be 2021.



Next goal is GC LT. Then we will look at Xbox One numbers.



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14 million times what equals 70-80 million? That is your answer. Five years is my guess. Even if it does 20 million this year it will not be able to do that everywhere unless Nintendo continues to work their magic for years to come.



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Since pokemon Go Pikachu and Eevee are releasing this year along with Fortnite and in 2019 Pokemon main games. I can now see Nintendo Switch surpassing Xbox One in mid 2019 not sure about 3DS?



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It seems to have slowed down a little so, who knows. Personally, I'm more interested in how big a lead it's going to have in the ninth generation and if PS5 or Xbox Two can over take it since they'll be the same gen. There's a good chance Nintendo will officially win the ninth gen if Switch keeps selling as well as it is simply because of the head start they got.



After the emergence of Pokemon LG and Smash it's looking like mid 2019 at this point, NS had 17.8m units moved at the end of March I'm guessing at this point it's already pass the 20m it may actually be close to the GC numbers come the end of this month.



By end of Next Year it will have passed XBox1. Pokemon will have the final say in the matter.

3DS it is difficult, Pokemon and Animal Crossing and Monster Hunter will help but only if they are good. I say Q2 2022.



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