Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo End of Jan. Investor Discussion Prediction Thread

So with that looming on our heads, anything you all feel like theorizing being announced.

 

How many sales total for what game?

 

What's on the docket?

 

What gets delayed?

 

Do we get anything new?

 

Interesting factoids?

 

Etc etc etc



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

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No delays or new games will be announced, that's for sure.

As for my predictions:

Switch total shipments - 14.3 million

BOTW Switch total shipments - 6.3 million

MK8D total shipments - 6.7 million

Super Mario Oddysey total shipments - 5 million

Splatoon 2 total shipements - 4.7 million

I think my predictions are sorta reasonable, but I didn't dig for the data that could make them more accurate (NDP announcements, and I know Nintendo France has said some stuff, + BUI sales awards.

I think I'll be within a margin of +- 500k on all though

Last edited by Teeqoz - on 24 January 2018

Tag.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

I think they are gonna confirm Pokemon Switch for this year and talk about an upcoming direct where they will share info on Pokemon Switch.
As far as shipments go,
Switch: 13.6m
BOTW: 7.5m
MK8D: 6.5m
Mario Odyssey: 5.2m
Splatoon 2: 4.5m



I think we'll see a proper Nintendo Direct next week:
it falls in line with the trend for Mini Directs to be followed by a regular Direct in less than 20 days, it'll allow them to announce a couple games, which is important since they set a trend about theming their whole booth at E3 around one majorly anticipated game and worked both times, hence they need to announce the game we need to be anticipating (even if it's already announced and we just need gameplay i.e. Pokémon/Metroid/Fire Emblem). This also allows them to prove investors that early 2018 isn't just about old games, there's still room in May alongside Labo and in June for games dedicated specifically to Nintendo fans.

Other than that I expect Nintendo's sales forecasts to be met, a big focus on Zelda and Mario outpacing previous instalments of each series, possibly a bundle announcement for Zelda (could also see that in the Direct since the DLC is complete and they could make a GOTY edition) to mantain momentum, either happiness due to ARMS being a milion seller new IP or some sort of disappointment since it was made by the Mario Kart team.

Labo will likely have a big focus too since it's opening to a whole new market



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No new games will be announced, obviously.

Outside of that, we will get more information about Labo, Nintendo overall plans with it and what they expect out of the product.

As for games sales, I expect shipment of Switch hardware to be betwenn 14 million and 14.5 million units.The biggest hitters, such as BOTW and Mario Oddyssey should have about an 50% attach rate, while smaller games like ARMS and 1-2 Switch should see a 400k to 500k bump compared to the privious quarter.

The one bold prediction I will make is that Nintendo will announce that the sales(shipment wise) for XC 2 is above 1 million units.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nintendo Switch: 1 unit less than the Wii U
BotW (NS): 6.5m
MK8D: 6.7m
Odyssey: 6.8m
Splatoon 2: 4.1m



Basing mine off of some calculations, so here goes...


Nintendo Switch: 12.33 million

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 6.95 million

Breath of the Wild: 6.05 million

Super Mario Odyssey: 6.05 million

Splatoon 2: 5.35 million

Going to predict that by the end of December, BotW only led Odyssey by about 5,000 copies.



Nothing will be delayed because we have only few release with release date and they are all in near future.



13 million Switch at least have shipped.

Botw and Mario Kart are near 7 million while Odyssey has just passed 6 million.

Arms has sold more than 1 2 Switch

Splatoon is near 5 million

Bold prediction- They will change the Pokemon switch date from 2018 or later to TBD/2019(Might save this for the briefing).