Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Predict FW, FY and LT Numbers for Switch Games for the First Half of 2018

List of Games:

Dragon Quest Builders

Release Date on Switch: Feb 9, 2018 in NA and EU, Mar 1, 2018 in JP

Original Release: Oct 11, 2016 on PS4 and PS Vita in NA and EU, Jan 28, 2016 on PS4, PS3 and PS Vita in JP

Developer: Square Enix

Bayonetta + Bayonetta 2

Release Date on Switch: Feb 16, 2018 in NA and EU, Feb 17, 2018 in JP

Original Release: Oct 24, 2014 in NA and EU, Sep 20, 2014 in JP

Developer: Platinum Games

Payday 2

Release Date on Switch: Feb 27, 2018 in NA and Feb 23, 2018 in EU

Original Release:

Aug 13, 2013 on PC, PS3 and X360 in NA and EU

Jun 16, 2015 on PS4 and X1 in NA and EU

Developer: Overkill Software


Kirby: Star Allies

Release Date: Mar 16, 2018 in Worldwide

Developer: HAL Labs

Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition

Release Date on Switch: Mar 22, 2018 in JP, Spring 2018 in NA and EU

Original Release:

Sep 26, 2014 in NA, Sep 19, 2014 in EU and Aug 14, 2014 in JP on Wii U

Mar 25, 2016 in NA and EU, Jan 21, 2016 in JP on 3DS

Developer: Omega Force

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze

Release Date on Switch: May 3, 2018 in Worldwide

Original Release: Feb 21, 2014 NA and EU, Feb 14, 2014 in JP

Developer: Retro Studios

DarK Souls Remastered

Release Date on Switch (Simultaneous with PS4, X1 and PC): May 25, 2018 in NA and EU, May 24, 2018 in JP

Original Release: 

Oct 4, 2011 in NA, Oct 30, 2011 in EU, Sep 22, 2011 in JP on PS3 and X360

August 24, 2012 in NA and EU, October 25, 2012 in JP on PC

Developer: From Software

Mario Tennis Aces

Release Date: Spring in Worldwide

Developer: Camelot Software Planning

Others Games with Release Date for Prediction:

Lost Sphear (Jan 23), Owlboy (Feb 13), FE (Feb 16), Pac-Man Championship Edition 2 Plus (Feb 22), Attack on Titan 2 (Mar 20), Blade Strangers (Mar 21), Atelier Lydie & Suelle: The Alchemists and the Mysterious Paintings (Mar 27).

Games with no Release Date for Prediction:

The Worlds Ends with You Final Remix, YS VIII, Wolfenstein II: The New Colossus, Yoshi, Project Octopath Traveler, Dragon Quest XI, Fire Emblem Switch, Shin Megami Tensei V, No More Heroes: Travis Strikes Again, Valkyria Chronicles 4, SNK Heroines, BlazBlue: Cross Tag Battle, Bayonetta 3, Metroid Prime 4, Pokemon Switch.

If you have any suggestion of games please tell me :)

FW = First Week, FY = First Year, LT = Lifetime

Last edited by Shikamo - on 13 January 2018


(=^・ω・^=) Kuroneko S2 - Ore no Imouto - SteamMyAnimeList and Twitter - PSN: Gustavo_Valim - Switch FC: 6390-8693-0129 (=^・ω・^=)
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My Predictions:

Dragon Quest Builders: FW: 0.07m (NA+EU+Others: 30K, JP: 40K), FY: 0.28m (NA+EU+Others: 130k, JP: 150K), LT: 0.37m (NA+EU+Others: 170k, JP: 200K)

Bayonetta + Bayonetta 2: FW: 0.22m (NA+EU+Others: 200K, JP: 20K), FY 1.22M (NA+EU+Others: 1.14M, JP: 80K) LT: 2.02M (NA+EU+Others: 1.9M, JP: 120K)

Payday 2: FW: 25K, FY 0.2m, LT 0.3m

Kirby Star Allies: FW: 0.45m (NA+EU+Others: 250K, JP: 200K), FY 1.7M (NA+EU+Others: 1.1M, JP: 600K) LT 2.5M (NA+EU+Others: 1.7M, JP: 800K)

Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition: FW: 0.15m (NA+EU+Others: 110K, JP: 40K), FY: 0.63m (NA+EU+Others: 500K, JP: 130K) LT: 0.9M (NA+EU+Others: 730K, JP: 170K)

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze: FW: 0.27m (NA+EU+Others: 200K, JP: 70K), FY: 1.5m (NA+EU+Others: 1.3m, JP: 200K), LT: 2.2M (NA+EU+Others: 1.9m, JP: 300K)

Dark Souls Remastered: FW: 0.15m (NA+EU+Others: 110K, JP: 40K), FY: 0.75m (NA+EU+Others: 600K, JP:150K), LT: 1.1m (NA+EU+Others: 900K, JP: 200K)

Mario Tennis Aces: FW: 200k (NA+EU+Others: 100K, JP: 100K), FY: 0.75m (NA+EU+Others: 500K, JP: 250K), LT: 1.1m (NA+EU+Others: 750K, JP: 350K)

Last edited by Shikamo - on 13 January 2018


(=^・ω・^=) Kuroneko S2 - Ore no Imouto - SteamMyAnimeList and Twitter - PSN: Gustavo_Valim - Switch FC: 6390-8693-0129 (=^・ω・^=)

Just rough numbers, but this sort of thing is fun so I may as well give it a go.

Dragon Quest Builders: (500,000 - 1,500,000 - 3,000,000)
Bayonetta: (280,000 - 1,250,000 - 2,000,000)
Payday: (100,000 - 350,000 - 650,000)
Kirby: (250,000 - 1,400,000 - 2,000,000)
Hyrule Warriors: (300,000 - 1,000,000 - 1,250,000)
DK Tropical Freeze: (350,000 - 2,000,000 - 4,250,000)
Dark Souls: (225,000 - 750,000 - 1,100,000)
Mario Tennis: (225,000 - 1,150,000 - 2,750,000)

I will try

LT numbers:

Dragon Quest Builders: 0.3m
Bayonetta + Bayonetta 2: 0.5m
Payday 2: 0.3m
Kirby: Star Allies: 1.5m
Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition : 0.8m
Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze: 1.2m
DarK Souls Remastered : 0.3m
Mario Tennis Aces: 2m

For FW, only Mario tennis, Kirby and DK re worthy of a FW number.

MT: 0.7m , Kirby, 0.6m and DKTF 0.4m

I'll try.

Dragon Quest Builders :FW: 0,10M, FY: 0,25M, LT : 0,40M

Bayonetta + Bayonetta 2 : FW: 0,30M, FY: 0,60M, LT: 0,8M

Payday 2 : FW: 0,05M, FY: 0,10M, LT: 0,15M

Kirby Star Allies : FW: 0,50M, FY: 1,5M, LT: 2,25M

Hyrule Warriors:Definitive Edition : FW: 0,25M, FY: 0,40M, LT: 0,60M

Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze : FW: 0,20M, FY: 0,50M, LT: 0,80M

Dark Souls Remastered : FW: 0,10M, FY: 0,20M, LT: 0,30M

Mario Tennis Aces : FW: 0,45M, FY: 1M, LT: 1,75M (But I don't know LT sales could still be way higher)

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Im on the phone, so its a harder to make a list like that, but ill leave one observation here:All Nintendo games that are from preexisting franchises are doing better on the Switcg.MUCH better.Just look at Zelda, Mario, Xenoblade, etc.

So I am of the belief that Kirby is also going to do much better than what he uses to do these past years.The last ten years or so mainline Kirby games usually do 300 -400k on Japan?(Correct me if Im wrong).I am a firm believer that Star Allies can sell 1 million units in Japan alone in the first year.Assuming the game dosent suck, of course.

My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

No idea but rooting for "Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze" & "Bayonetta" to do well.
Great games that deserve more sales.

Kinda hopeing Hyrule Warriors & payday 2 crash and burn (same logic as above (imo), just reversed).

My predictions (lifetime only)

DQ Builders: 0.8m
Bayonetta 1+2: 1.2m
Payday 2: 0.2m
Hyrule Warriors: 0.75m
Dark Souls: 0.7m
DKC: Tropical Freeze: 1.5m

Bayonetta 1+2 : 1.2 m LT.