Forums - Movies Discussion - Prediction: Disney will earn $10 billion at the box office in 2019.

03/08/19 Captain Marvel
03/29/19 Dumbo
04/12/19 Untitled Planes film
05/03/19 Untitled Avengers film
05/24/19 Aladdin                                                                                                       
06/21/19 Toy Story 4
07/05/19 Untitled Spider-Man film
07/19/19 The Lion King
08/09/19 Artemis Fowl
11/08/19 Nicole
11/27/19 Frozen 2
12/20/19 Star Wars Episode IX
??/??/?? Mulan
Last edited by LordLichtenstein - on 18 December 2017

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Damn thats alot!



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Frozen 2 confirmed!?

 

And I thought Lion King was coming out in 2018?



    

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If all of the films actually do release in 2019 (which would be the big confound deterring your hypothesis), then I could see it being possible, difficult but possible.



But the Spider-Man film is by Sony, not Disney.



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Can you imagine if AVATAR 2 was out in 2019 as well??? It's coming 2020.
But damn, that list is crazy if accurate.



VGPolyglot said:
But the Spider-Man film is by Sony, not Disney.

Well... it is and it isn’t...



Ha Ha, They'll be lucky to hit 2 billion with that list - and Spidey is a Sony IP. Besides, I hope the superhero movies bomb - as they will eventually.



Nighthawk117 said:
Ha Ha, They'll be lucky to hit 2 billion with that list - and Spidey is a Sony IP. Besides, I hope the superhero movies bomb - as they will eventually.

You need to take your personal preference away from how well these movies are going to do overall. Star Wars and Avengers are going to be about 1.5 billion each. Frozen 2, Toy Story 4, Mulan, Aladdin, and The Lion King all have a very good chance of being 1 billion each

Box Office:

Captain Marvel: $600 Million

Dumbo: $350 Million

Planes: $225 Million

Avengers: $1.5 Billion

Aladdin: $1 Billion

Toy Story 4: $1 Billion

Spider - Man: $800 Million (Doesn't Count)

The Lion King: $1.2 Billion

Artemis Fowl: $250 Million

Nicole: $400 Million

Frozen 2: $1 Billion

Star Wars: $1.5 Billion

Mulan: $1 Billion

Total: $10. 025 Billion

Disney just has to perform to these very safe expectations and they'll easily hit $10 Billion

PS: Don't forget about the films that Disney acquired through Fox. 

Last edited by Smartie900 - on 18 December 2017

 

 

You're talking worldwide no doubt. This year Disney is not going to make what they did last year Domestic, but for comparison:

Disney in 2015 World Wide (Without rollovers): 6.178 Billion

Disney in 2016 World Wide (Without rollovers): 7.258 Billion

Disney in 2017 World Wide (Without rollovers): 5.069 Billion 

So looking at this Disney is going to have a worse year than last. Star Wars, CoCo, and Thor will push it past the 6.178 Billion mark and possibly close to 7 Billion, but that is as far as it goes. Now here is the kicker...

Movies released in 2015: 11 Movies

Average for 2015: 562 Million

Movies released in 2016: 13 Movies

Average for 2016: 558 Million

Movies released in 2017: 8 Movies

Average for 2017:  634 Million

2017 is not done yet so that average will keep climbing. As far as 2019 goes there are a couple of things to mention...

1. Inflation: On average movie tickets have been going up roughly 25 cents each year. Putting this into context of 2016's gross and the total revenue would be at 7.887 Billion (Divide the gross to the price of the ticket in 2016, then multiply the tickets by the cost in 2016 plus .75). That is roughly .6 Billion extra money off of .75 extra cents.

2. Growing Foreign Markets: Specifically China. I'll break this down

Thor (2011): Did not release in China

Thor: Dark World (2013): 55 Million

Thor Ragnarok (2017): 112 Million

There is also a limit on the amount of American made (more specifically foreign made) movies that can enter the Chinese market per year. The release of Avatar caught China off-guard, banning viewings of the movie. At this point Avatar would be sitting much closer to the 3 billion worldwide mark if this hadn't happen (and if it were released today, Avatar would have blown past 3 Billion thanks to China). This isn't taking into account that China has released the second highest grossing movie for a single region this year, only being behind The Force Awakens (which is a 30+ year franchise). What this means is China still has legs to grow and regulations to eliminate. 

3. Not all of these are going to release in 2019. I do not see Disney throwing out 4 huge live action movies in the same year. Just like video games there will be production delays especially considering Disney now owns more movies coming out in 2019 because of Fox.

4. There are movies that Disney will release that are not on this list. 

 

With that, lets say these are the only releases that Disney is sending out in 2019 and they are for sure coming 2019...

Captain Marvel: (.9 Billion) There is no way that Captain Marvel makes less than the first or second movie. Coming hot off the heels of Civil War and rebranding as Captain Marvel, this will come close to 1 billion.

Dumbo: (.6 Billion) Again, I have a hard time seeing one of the most beloved Disney classics (being created by a hugely successful Tim Burton and amazing cast) not break 1 Billion worldwide. Being very conservative on this because of the last Alice in Wonderland.

Planes: (.2 Billion) Very unsuccessful franchise so far. The first planes movie grossed a little over 200 million.

Avengers: (1.2 Billion) There is an Avengers coming out in 2018, the more they release a product the less it will sell unless they add an unforeseen element.  The first avengers was huge because they all got together for the first time. The second dropped drastically. I see this happening unless they add a huge character. Maybe X-Men... 

Aladdin: (1.6 Billion): If Disney can nail this like Beauty in the Beast, it will do the same numbers. This might perform better overseas because of the cast of characters and how diverse they will be. It's a love story under everything, basically mirrors Titanic where a Low-Life that women adore gets the attention of the rich high class woman. People want this and could be the biggest movie of 2019.

Toy Story 4: (1.2 Billion) I'm predicting this movie will drop in the United States because Toy Story 3 was shown to be the last of the series. The kicker is that this one will release in China making up for the lower US attendance, plus a little. 

Spider-Man: (Doesn't Count), Sure I'll go with Doesn't Count

The Lion King: (1 Billion) Very hit or miss on this one because I don't know how you would do a live action Lion King. Lets say this is the perfect Lion King movie it can be. I'm highly confident this movie will cross 2 Billion worldwide... The original Lion King released in 1994 at nearly 1 Billion dollars world wide. Adjust that for inflation, the growth of the US markets, the growth of the foreign markets, and other media that the Lion King has taken over (video games, TV, the award-winning musical) and you have something huge. To this day people still talk about the Lion King and bring up the "Circle of Life" to mention it. On the other hand it turns out to be a whatever movie, 1 Billion sounds like a good point.

 Artemis Fowl: (.3 Billion) I have no idea, guessing it will follow suit along with Percy Jackson, the Maze Runner, and various other books.

Nicole:  (.4 Billion) Sure, I don't know much about this movie or any other female movies like it. Pitch Perfect caught me by surprise at the box office so.. yeah

Frozen 2: (1.6 Billion) Yeah, Just like Shrek 2 destroyed everything, this will probably do it as well. One of the best selling toy lines and girls my age singing the songs. People loved it.

Star Wars: (1.6 Billion) If it is marketed as the last of the current series than it will do better. It won't so 1.6 Billion sounds about right.

Mulan: (1.6 Billion) China will eat this up and it is a huge life action movie. 

 

World-Wide I'm guessing 12 Billion. Domestic maybe 4 Billion

 

*Someone please say good job because I fact checked everything and did calculations. I feel like I wasted a shit ton of time writing this. About an hour and a half ugh.



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