Forums - Sales Discussion - NPD Analyst Expects Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November

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NPD Analyst Expects Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November

NPD Analyst Mat Piscatella thinks that Sony, Microsoft, and Nintendo all have a chance to bring home a win in November in the United States.

Giuseppe Nelva
on November 24, 2017 9:35 PM

The NPD is seen as one of the most authoritative sources of statistics for video games in the United States, and its dedicated Analyst Mat Piscatella had some interesting insight to share on the Resetera forums.

Firstly, Piscatella mentioned that the winner for hardware in the month of November is a coin flip situation. “It could easily be any of the three.”

Interestingly, he also mentioned that his prediction for Xbox One X sales was 600,000 units for this year, but now he feels that Microsoft is going to “blow past that” simply by manufacturing more units than he thought they would.

He also expressed an interesting point of view on the fact that Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo are all doing well.

“Yeah I keep trying to think of ways of how I can write the notes that emphasizes everyone doing well (which is my current assumption, but who knows). If all 3 consoles have spectacular months, from a market perspective does it really matter which one sells a few units more than the others? No, but if I don’t note the leader then everyone loses their minds.”

Piscatella then mentioned that digital Black Friday sales from Sony and Microsoft are “Phenomenal” (if you’re wondering why he doesn’t mention Nintendo, the house of Mario does not share digital sales with the NPD), and retailers are already bringing deep discounts on software, so November should also be a “big month” for games, not just for hardware.

Another interesting point made by Piscatella is on the “narrative” that some attribute to GameStop, which would allegedly favor Microsoft and Nintendo due to recent comments on the performance of the Switch and of the Xbox One X.

“Why do you keep using the term “narrative”?

Switch and One X are the new boxes this year, so Switch will be up huge compared to Wii U last year, and Xbox One should be up pretty big year on year because of One X. PS4 could end up being the best selling platform, but spend might not even be up when compared to last year.”

Further in the thread, he was not charitable in describing that idea as absurd.

“This “narrative” that the leading games retailer is doing console warz and is somehow biased against Sony is one of the most ridiculous things I’ve ever read on a message board or twitter. It’s truly Herculean on the scale of asinine. Congrats on that one.”

 



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Damn... 600k or more Xbox One X is pretty crazy for 2017 alone. How much did the pro sell comparatively?



Mentioning the Switch and Xbox one X in a report and completely leaving out any mention of the "everywhere sold out ps4 slim" ..man call it whatever you want really. Its pretty obvious what is going on.

resetera same shit as gaf no matter how often they rename themselves. just take a peek into the NPD thread...

oh yeah 600k xbox one x..congratulations but i dont put much value into any analysts opinion especially not if he is active in certain forums.



wow, the Xbox one x has done impressively well in such a short time, let's see if it continues to hold these amazing sales into 2018. the revenue Microsoft must be getting from these units alone is equivalent to that of 2 Xbox ones, that's insane...



ironmanDX said:
Damn... 600k or more Xbox One X is pretty crazy for 2017 alone. How much did the pro sell comparatively?

I was expecting that at least 10% of the 30+M X1 owners would upgrade within the first year (there are just too many battered hardcore XBoxers out there). Maybe up to half of them within the first two months.

So 600k X1X for 2017 would actually be pretty disappointing.I'm still seeing 1M.



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600k seems normal to me. I was expecting numbers like that. Hardcore fans were set to upgrade. A couple million will do so at least.



In the wilderness we go alone with our new knowledge and strength.

drkohler said:
ironmanDX said:
Damn... 600k or more Xbox One X is pretty crazy for 2017 alone. How much did the pro sell comparatively?

I was expecting that at least 10% of the 30+M X1 owners would upgrade within the first year (there are just too many battered hardcore XBoxers out there). Maybe up to half of them within the first two months.

So 600k X1X for 2017 would actually be pretty disappointing.I'm still seeing 1M.

At least one in five PS4 consoles sold is a PS$ Pro if Japanese and Sony numbers are anything to go by. So I guess it must have sold at least 750k in it's first year.



Please excuse my (probally) poor grammar

Kerozinn said:
Mentioning the Switch and Xbox one X in a report and completely leaving out any mention of the "everywhere sold out ps4 slim" ..man call it whatever you want really. Its pretty obvious what is going on.

resetera same shit as gaf no matter how often they rename themselves. just take a peek into the NPD thread...

oh yeah 600k xbox one x..congratulations but i dont put much value into any analysts opinion especially not if he is active in certain forums.

So.. Exact same writer and website in dualshockers both posted on the same day but this is the article that you decide to question? The NPD analyst making a fair prediction about all 3 companies chances of winning?

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8637691

Just.... Wow.



Qwark said:
drkohler said:

I was expecting that at least 10% of the 30+M X1 owners would upgrade within the first year (there are just too many battered hardcore XBoxers out there). Maybe up to half of them within the first two months.

So 600k X1X for 2017 would actually be pretty disappointing.I'm still seeing 1M.

At least one in five PS4 consoles sold is a PS$ Pro if Japanese and Sony numbers are anything to go by. So I guess it must have sold at least 750k in it's first year.

Did the pro launch in November?

Found an article that claims numbers from NPD to be around 230k for December.

http://www.playstationlifestyle.net/2017/01/19/report-ps4-pro-sold-238000-units-us-last-month/

 

Do you mean 750k in it's first full year?



ironmanDX said:
Damn... 600k or more Xbox One X is pretty crazy for 2017 alone. How much did the pro sell comparatively?

We have no idea, all we know is that as of around june 5th 2017, 20% of ps4's sold since pro launch were pro's.

So with VGC info, by June 5th 2.83m pro's were sold globally.

If we take the 20% figure and apply it to just USA sales for 2016 from pro launch, we get 500k Pro sales in the US in 2016. But that figure is definitely lowballing it, as the ratio of Pro's sold compared to standard ps4's would have been way higher close to launch then it was by June. Equally it could be argued that the Ratio would be higher in the USA compared to globally, as the USA market better suits a premium more expensive console than many places.

But it's all guess work.



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 9m, Switch - 22.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m