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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 VS Switch lifetime sales, which console will sell the most?

 

What do you expect?

NSW will win by a huge margin 53 16.06%
 
NSW will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a small margin 75 22.73%
 
PS4 will win by a huge margin 117 35.45%
 
Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... 10 3.03%
 
Total:330
zorg1000 on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

No its true for consoles with limited stock as well. Here is NPD data.

PS4 Nov 2013-1.14m

PS4 Dec 2013-860k

 

Wii Nov 2006-470k

Wii Dec 2006-600k

 

360 Nov 2005-320k

360 Dec 2005-280k

I'm lost..... so all that data suggest what exactly? 

The consoles had limited stock? Cause  what I am seeing is a drop in all those consoles second month. I don't see how that refutes my claim.... they still sold all the stock they had available. They just had less stock the following month than the month prior. With exception to the Wii (and there is a reason why things like that happens too).

Lets just leave this alone though. At this point theer is no need to continue. I believe we have all put our cards on the table, everyone will believe what they wanna believe.

I said relative stability, PS4 had a 2nd month drop of about 25%, Wii had an increase of about 25%, 360 had a drop of under 15%.

Her are some other Nov launches

GC Nov 2001-660k

GC Dec 2001-570k

 

Xbox Nov 2001-720k

Xbox Dec 2001-700k

 

Again all Nov launches have a relatively stable 2nd month regardless of stock issues.

Here are the drops for Spring launches

Switch March 2017-900k

Switch April 2017-280k

 

3DS March 2011-400k

3DS April 2011-190k

 

GBA June 2001-880k

GBA July 2001-360k

 

 

Nov launches see Dec sales roughly the same while Spring launches see 50-70% declines.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
zorg1000 said:

None of this is making any sense, when did i say Nintendo would magically of whipped up more consoles if launched in Nov?

When the fuck did anybody say a console manufacturer has shipped 3/4M launch week and what does that have to do with anything?

Youre trying to get me to defend things i have never said.

 

Everybody knows people are WAAAAYYYYYY more willing to spend hundreds of dollars on gaming in Dec compared to April hence why a console manufacturer will plan accordingly and have more units available with a holiday launch compared to a spring launch.

ok.... here goes.

zorg1000 said: 

A console manufacturer will plan things differently when it comes to the holiday shopping season vs the slower spring months.

Somehow, in this thread.....these concepts that i would have thought were obvious are suddenly so complicated.

the bolded part..... unless I am grossly mistaken, in line with this discussion, that statement can only mean that if they were releasing in the holidays they would make more consoles than for a spring launch (plan differently). thats the only difference that applies here. and is in line with what Miyamotoo was suggesting as well. He outright spelt it out. here....

Miyamotoo said: 

I gave you good and logical possibilities why that maybe would make sense, and why thats not throwing away money, you ignoried all that and you were acting like evrething was set in stone, lol. Again, you dont know that, if plan from start would be holiday season launch and around 4m prepared consoles from launch. Again, Nintendo never didnt said they couldn't produce more than 2m for Switch launch, just that initial plan was to prepare 2m for launch and that they later had problem to increase that number, but if initial plan was to have bigger number stock for launch they could probably prepare more. Stock problem after launch is different thing, because maybe they had plan  to produce around 500k per month and they needed much more than that beacuse console was selling better than 500k and and factories couldn't start producing much more than that so soon.

thats one of the times he said it. Thats also how the whole 4M thingy came about. And you saying "plan differently" just ties with what he was saying.

And what the shipeed 3-4M has to do with this? Everything.

You see, in its launch window, first week on the market to be exact, the nintendo switch sold 1.5M consoles of its reported 2M shipment. Lets chalk that up to delivery issues. The rest were sold a day or so after its first week on the market. See nintendo made only 2M consoles for that launch shipment. Which is in line with what most manufacurers are able to pull off these days for their launch shipment. Back in the day it was even less and usually staggered.

For anyone to suggest that if they released in the holiday they would have sold more? that can only happen if they shipped more consoles than what they shipped. So lets say 3M/4M consoles.... and that has never happened.

How can we have a discussion of sales being better if released in the holiday and totally ignore that for that to happen they would have to do something no one else has done in 3 decades and also ignore that what they released was actually in line with what the competition managed too and ignore that they sold out of all their available stock. 



Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
zorg1000 said:

I said relative stability, PS4 had a 2nd month drop of about 25%, Wii had an increase of about 25%, 360 had a drop of under 15%.

Her are some other Nov launches

GC Nov 2001-660k

GC Dec 2001-570k

 

Xbox Nov 2001-720k

Xbox Dec 2001-700k

 

Again all Nov launches have a relatively stable 2nd month regardless of stock issues.

Here are the drops for Spring launches

Switch March 2017-900k

Switch April 2017-280k

 

3DS March 2011-400k

3DS April 2011-190k

 

GBA June 2001-880k

GBA July 2001-360k

 

 

Nov launches see Dec sales roughly the same while Spring launches see 50-70% declines.

First off, all those consoles were stock limited. Secondly, don't you think that that has more to do with nintendo just being not as good as funnelling stock through the chains as the other people? Cause I can assure you, the NS didn't sell 620k less in the following month because no one wanted it. It was still out of stock. 

same happened with the 3ds..... I don't know about the GBA.

I mean you always provide great data, but come on... theer is a lot of context to that data too. A lot of variables. One thing that makes this easy though, is simple demand and supply. And supply is limited by stock. Don't know how else to say this.



Intrinsic on 16 November 2017
killeryoshis said:

The last few pages feels more like a battlefield than an actual conversation.

At least no one is insulting anyone and making personal attacks (for the most part).



zorg1000 on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

None of this is making any sense, when did i say Nintendo would magically of whipped up more consoles if launched in Nov?

When the fuck did anybody say a console manufacturer has shipped 3/4M launch week and what does that have to do with anything?

Youre trying to get me to defend things i have never said.

 

Everybody knows people are WAAAAYYYYYY more willing to spend hundreds of dollars on gaming in Dec compared to April hence why a console manufacturer will plan accordingly and have more units available with a holiday launch compared to a spring launch.

ok.... here goes.

zorg1000 said: 

A console manufacturer will plan things differently when it comes to the holiday shopping season vs the slower spring months.

Somehow, in this thread.....these concepts that i would have thought were obvious are suddenly so complicated.

the bolded part..... unless I am grossly mistaken, in line with this discussion, that statement can only mean that if they were releasing in the holidays they would make more consoles than for a spring launch (plan differently). thats the only difference that applies here. and is in line with what Miyamotoo was suggesting as well. He outright spelt it out. here....

You are misinterpreting what im saying. My whole argument has been about 2nd month drop, not about having more units in the first week/month.

Console manufacturers will plan accordingly by having a similar amount available in Dec as they did in Nov.

April is a much slower sales period than Dec so manufacturers plan accordingly and anticipate a significant drop in the 2nd month.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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quickrick on 16 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I'm lost..... so all that data suggest what exactly? 

The consoles had limited stock? Cause  what I am seeing is a drop in all those consoles second month. I don't see how that refutes my claim.... they still sold all the stock they had available. They just had less stock the following month than the month prior. With exception to the Wii (and there is a reason why things like that happens too).

Lets just leave this alone though. At this point theer is no need to continue. I believe we have all put our cards on the table, everyone will believe what they wanna believe.

I said relative stability, PS4 had a 2nd month drop of about 25%, Wii had an increase of about 25%, 360 had a drop of under 15%.

Her are some other Nov launches

GC Nov 2001-660k

GC Dec 2001-570k

 

Xbox Nov 2001-720k

Xbox Dec 2001-700k

 

Again all Nov launches have a relatively stable 2nd month regardless of stock issues.

Here are the drops for Spring launches

Switch March 2017-900k

Switch April 2017-280k

 

3DS March 2011-400k

3DS April 2011-190k

 

GBA June 2001-880k

GBA July 2001-360k

 

 

Nov launches see Dec sales roughly the same while Spring launches see 50-70% declines.

its obvious the second month sales will decline on any console launch on a regular none holiday  month if it had a nice supply, and meets demand, but for 360/ps2/wii, they were doing better on regular months then there first  december because how limted there supply was, so how does that prove anything lol. xbox and GC had a very small market going for them, and demand wasn't strong at all. can't be compared to 360,ps4, wii, or even switch.

Last edited by quickrick - on 16 November 2017

zorg1000 on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

I said relative stability, PS4 had a 2nd month drop of about 25%, Wii had an increase of about 25%, 360 had a drop of under 15%.

Her are some other Nov launches

GC Nov 2001-660k

GC Dec 2001-570k

 

Xbox Nov 2001-720k

Xbox Dec 2001-700k

 

Again all Nov launches have a relatively stable 2nd month regardless of stock issues.

Here are the drops for Spring launches

Switch March 2017-900k

Switch April 2017-280k

 

3DS March 2011-400k

3DS April 2011-190k

 

GBA June 2001-880k

GBA July 2001-360k

 

 

Nov launches see Dec sales roughly the same while Spring launches see 50-70% declines.

First off, all those consoles were stock limited. Secondly, don't you think that that has more to do with nintendo just being not as good as funnelling stock through the chains as the other people? Cause I can assure you, the NS didn't sell 620k less in the following month because no one wanted it. It was still out of stock. 

same happened with the 3ds..... I don't know about the GBA.

I mean you always provide great data, but come on... theer is a lot of context to that data too. A lot of variables. One thing that makes this easy though, is simple demand and supply. And supply is limited by stock. Don't know how else to say this.

If its because Nintendo is bad at funneling stock than why did GC, Wii & Wii U (Nov launches) all have relatively stable 2nd months?

 

Same thing didnt happen with 3DS, it was massively overshipped at launch, that was a decline due to demand.

 

It cant be a coincidence that every Nov launch has steady sales in Dec while every spring launch had a massive drop.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

quickrick on 16 November 2017
zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

First off, all those consoles were stock limited. Secondly, don't you think that that has more to do with nintendo just being not as good as funnelling stock through the chains as the other people? Cause I can assure you, the NS didn't sell 620k less in the following month because no one wanted it. It was still out of stock. 

same happened with the 3ds..... I don't know about the GBA.

I mean you always provide great data, but come on... theer is a lot of context to that data too. A lot of variables. One thing that makes this easy though, is simple demand and supply. And supply is limited by stock. Don't know how else to say this.

If its because Nintendo is bad at funneling stock than why did GC, Wii & Wii U (Nov launches) all have relatively stable 2nd months?

 

Same thing didnt happen with 3DS, it was massively overshipped at launch, that was a decline due to demand.

 

It cant be a coincidence that every Nov launch has steady sales in Dec while every spring launch had a massive drop.

dude are you ok? wii had a shit december 600k is bad it was selling near that on regular months, same for 360, how can you call those sales good, what you think if wii and 360 launched in march they couldn't sell better then those pathetic numbers during the holiday's, if so you are delusional. bringing up xbox, GC snd wiiu is silly because those were big failures and demand wasn't strong. 



Miyamotoo on 16 November 2017
Intrinsic said:
Miyamotoo said:

Lol, you are that spew nonsense. Fact that is they are selling better during holiday season in any case, and that also goes when consoles are launched during holiday season also, console thats launching during holiday season will sell better and much easier compared to same console would launch outside holiday season.

Ok... now I really have nothing to say to you. I never thought it would be possible for anyone to just somehow ignore all the facts presented to them even with explanations until now. You are at that sad place where you aren't refuting anything with facts of your own.... you  are just dismissing them cause you can.

But what facts you presented to me that goes again what I wrote, and thats that console during holiday season will sell better in evre case including launch compared to any other period of year.

 

 

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I would have thought this was blatantly obvious. Like I can't even believe this discussion has gotten this far and that now its being misconstrued to encompass things that weren't even the point of the discussion to begin with.

Like how can you sell what you can't make?

Which console in 30 years has launched with stock of more than 2.5M units in its launch week?

If you sell outta all your available stock in 2 days in march. It means you would have sold out of all said stock in November just the same all other things being equal (price and that game).

If you are selling as much stock as you make, which is dictated by you manufacturing prowess... then it doesn't matter what time of the year you are selling them. you are still limited by your manufacturing capacity.

Somehow, in this thread... these concepts that I would have thought were obvious are suddenly so complicated.

A console manufacturer will plan things differently when it comes to the holiday shopping season vs the slower spring months.

Somehow, in this thread.....these concepts that i would have thought were obvious are suddenly so complicated.

Exactly, and some people acts like that don't make any sense and can't understand that, crazy.



zorg1000 on 16 November 2017
quickrick said:
zorg1000 said:

If its because Nintendo is bad at funneling stock than why did GC, Wii & Wii U (Nov launches) all have relatively stable 2nd months?

 

Same thing didnt happen with 3DS, it was massively overshipped at launch, that was a decline due to demand.

 

It cant be a coincidence that every Nov launch has steady sales in Dec while every spring launch had a massive drop.

dude are you ok? wii had a shit december 600k is bad it was selling near that on regular months, same for 360, how can you call those sales good, what you think if wii and 360 launched in march they couldn't sell better then those pathetic numbers during the holiday's, if so you are delusional.

Never did i say anything about those numbers being good or bad, i said they were relatively stable from Nov.

 

All Nov launches see stable 2nd month sales, all Spring launches see huge 2nd month drops. This has remained true regardless of stock.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.