Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo plans to make 25 million to 30 million Switch game consoles next fiscal year

Nintendo plans to pick up the production pace for its hit Switch game console next year, people with direct knowledge of the matter said, showing the company’s deepening confidence in the success of the device.

The Kyoto-based company is sketching out a plan to make 25 million to 30 million units of the Switch in its next fiscal year, which begins April 2018, and has begun informing business partners about it, the people said. They said the plan is still in its early stages and Nintendo could aim higher depending on sales during this year’s holiday season.

The Switch went on sale globally on March 3, 2017. Between that date and Sept. 30, Nintendo said it sold 7.63 million units. The company said at its quarterly earnings announcement in October that it planned to sell an additional 9.1 million units by March 2018, meaning total sales by that date would reach nearly 17 million.

Some people in the industry say the Switch could surpass the original Wii, which set the record for Nintendo’s best-selling console with more than 101.6 million shipped. Nomura Securities analyst Junko Yamamura forecast cumulative sales of 115.8 million units by March 2023.

At the earnings announcement, Nintendo Chief Executive Tatsumi Kimishima predicted demand would keep growing even after the holidays and said assemblers working on Nintendo’s behalf have added work lines to make more Switch units. Such a step by assemblers usually requires a commitment by the buyer to keep purchasing the product for a certain period because the assemblers need to hire and train new workers.

Any aggressive boost in production carries the risk that sales fall short of expectations, leaving the company with excess inventory.

Ace Research Institute analyst Hideki Yasuda said software sales data so far suggest casual gamers haven’t been buying the Switch in big numbers, leaving room for further growth since Nintendo has traditionally been strong at attracting such customers. Nintendo’s Mr. Kimishima said the company would release more games for casual users next year.

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So .... 42-47 million in two years?



Holy crap, that's... plenty.

Edit: which is to say, I doubt they'll sell anywhere near that much. 15, 20 million, maybe. Anything above that is quite unrealistic imo.



They have to have the software to make those claims. Sure Mario Odyssey and the Holiday will increase demand but they'd have to have more than that to predict such sales. I wonder what they're planning.



Ljink96 said:
They have to have the software to make those claims. Sure Mario Odyssey and the Holiday will increase demand but they'd have to have more than that to predict such sales. I wonder what they're planning.

Yeah, to me this means they’re extremely confident in the games lineup next year if they are ramping it up that much. Hopefully this puts to rest the fear I previously had that 2018 will be slow for the switch, software-wise



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The only way they'll sell that many is if Pokemon Switch comes out next year.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Ljink96 said:
They have to have the software to make those claims. Sure Mario Odyssey and the Holiday will increase demand but they'd have to have more than that to predict such sales. I wonder what they're planning.

Something BIG must be coming for them to be THAT confident 



Shikamo said:

Nintendo’s Mr. Kimishima said the company would release more games for casual users next year.

Source

This worries me.

Switch has sold as well as it has because it appeals to core gamers; trying to recapture the Wii crowd by focusing on gimmicky software aimed at non-gamers would be a huge mistake.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series X will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

LimaBean01 said:
Ljink96 said:
They have to have the software to make those claims. Sure Mario Odyssey and the Holiday will increase demand but they'd have to have more than that to predict such sales. I wonder what they're planning.

Yeah, to me this means they’re extremely confident in the games lineup next year if they are ramping it up that much. Hopefully this puts to rest the fear I previously had that 2018 will be slow for the switch, software-wise

Honestly any year after 2017 will look probably looks sparse by comparison.   Zelda, 3D Mario, Xenoblade, and Splatoon in the first year?  That's a pretty tough act to follow.

Even still, 2018 still looks promising.  We are getting Kirby, Yoshi, Wolfenstein, and mainline Fire Emblem for sure, and we're possible getting Pikmin or Animal Crossing, some 3rd party multiplat, a Monster Hunter XX localization, etc.  That's still pretty good imo.



curl-6 said:
Shikamo said:

Nintendo’s Mr. Kimishima said the company would release more games for casual users next year.

Source

This worries me.

Switch has sold as well as it has because it appeals to core gamers; trying to recapture the Wii crowd by focusing on gimmicky software aimed at non-gamers would be a huge mistake.

I feel like you should know better than anyone that casual and gimmicky Wii-like experiences aren't even synonyms.