Alright, so, for everyone who didn't know it yet.
I predicted a total of 15 million Switch shipped by the end of 2017. (prediction made in January 13, after the Nintendo Switch presentation) Most people won't understand what i'm saying there, because is an italian thread, so in short:
- I predicted 15 million Switch by end of 2017 (shipped, not sold)
- I predicted that all Splatoon 2, Zelda Botw (NSW), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and Mario Odyssey would have surpassed 5 million shipped*
- Also for 3DS i predicted over 70 million shipped, but that's not revelant here.
*Surpass 5 million, does not mean i predicted 5 million. For example, for some games i was expecting 6 million or so.
Talk about Switch, this was my prediction for all quarters:
Q1 2017 - 2.5 million
Q2 2017 - 2.0 million
Q3 2017 - 2.5 million
Q4 2017 - 8.0 million
2017 total - 15.00 million
And so far, i was a bit conservate on Switch, as you can see.
As you can see, i expected Switch at 7.00 million units shipped at this point.
Switch is at 7.63 million, which mean i underestimated Switch by 630,000 units.
Remember i made this prediction in JANUARY, before any Nintendo prediction, which was at first 12.74 million by end of March 2018, and now 16.74 million by March 2018.
Nintendo probabily expect Switch to sell close to my prediction by the end of the year, even if probabily they don't expect 15 million shipped in 2017 alone. Even so, i'm confident Nintendo will, again, surpass his expectation, and ship about 15 million by end of 2017, and reach 17/18 million by end of March 2018.
In any case, in the absolutely worst scenario, Switch is not gonna ship less than 14 million units this year, which mean that, my 15 million prediction will be, by far, the best prediction ever made for Switch first year, considering most people didn't expect the console to ship 10 million in January, and even after the strong Switch launch, most predictions were just in the 10 to 12 million range, while i always expected at least 15 million shipped (at one point even 16 million if i remember correctly).
As for software, at this point is super obvius that EVERYONE will destroy the 5 million mark. Splatoon already at 3.6 million, Mario Kart and Zelda are at 4.4 million and 4.7 million by end of September... and Odyssey launch looks MASSIVE.
Anyway, what do you think? What was/still is your Switch prediction? Also, did you thought 15 million was crazy back in January? Let me know.
Last edited by Ryng - on 30 October 2017