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Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

 

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 110 28.80%
 
No 189 49.48%
 
Not sure 60 15.71%
 
I will not make a prediction 23 6.02%
 
Total:382



The broker also hiked its target price from JPY40,000 a share to JPY55,000, implying  almost 44% upside. Credit Suisse now forecasts Nintendo to sell 130 million Switch consoles through to 2022, up from 70 million, as it says the device sells like a handheld console rather than a traditional console. Here's Credit Suisse analyst Keiichi Yoneshima in his own words:

As Nintendo’s Switch is a unique game platform for use as either a console or handheld, there was initially some uncertainty over whether its sales cycle would more closely resemble that of a console or handheld. Although the Switch is currently categorized as more of a console, we expect it to sell like a handheld. Many users are in fact using the Switch as a portable according to a Famitsu survey of users. We previously projected a sales peak at about three years after launch (i.e., in FY3/19) on the assumption of a console-like sales cycle. Now that the Switch looks more likely to sell like a handheld, we update our sales forecast to reflect a longer sales cycle. We now expect the Switch to achieve peak sales about five years after launch (i.e., around FY3/20–21) like a typical handheld game device. We also raise our peak-year sales forecast from 25mn to 31mn units.

Source if you want to read more



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems!

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shinning justice on you. 

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Keep in mind that this is 130 million by 2022. So the average it will sell per calendar year is 21.6 million. The only systems that got this high annually is the Wii and DS. The DS went as high as 30 million per year. So this isn't too far fetched. We will just have to wait and see.

I think this prediction is a bit too high but the Switch keeps outdoing my predictions so we'll see.



Tag:I'm not bias towards Nintendo. You just think that way (Admin note - it's "biased".  Not "bias")
(killeryoshis note - Who put that there ?)
Switch is 9th generation. Everyone else is playing on last gen systems!

Biggest pikmin fan on VGchartz I won from a voting poll
I am not a nerd. I am enthusiast.  EN-THU-SI-AST!
Do Not Click here or else I will call on the eye of shinning justice on you. 

Ahhh, our first Nintendo Switch prediction that can be seen as genuinely overshot.
I'd consider 80-100 million a great success.
But 130? Yeah, even with Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Splatoon, Mario, Breath of the Wild, plus a ton of 3rd party, I'm doubtful about that.



If this happens, Switch will become the best-selling console of all time. (With such sales by the end of 2022, it will obviously have a lot of life left to add the missing millions to its final total.)



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Remember all the people saying it would be Wii U 2.0? It was apparently too clunky, undesired, terribly advertised, and too expensive.

Good times.



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The guy manages to be even more optimistic than me!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

So that's 130 million from Q1 2017 to Q4 2022, or 24 quarters.

For reference:

DS shipped 135.58 million during that time-frame (Q4 2004 to Q3 2010)
Wii shipped 97.18 million during that time-frame (Q4 2006 to Q3 2012)



I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.



Is he talking globally in the US or what?



StarDoor said:
So that's 130 million from Q1 2017 to Q4 2022, or 24 quarters.

For reference:

DS shipped 135.58 million during that time-frame (Q4 2004 to Q3 2010)
Wii shipped 97.18 million during that time-frame (Q4 2006 to Q3 2012)

Good research. Since the DS pulled it off with a worse first year than Switch will have, their prediction isn't as unreasonable as it seems at first glance.

Paul said:
I can see vgchartz regaining it's old glory through the next few years if this is true. All the old nintendo fan boys will come out of hiding to savour the salty tears of fanboy meltdowns.

I was in hiding for 5 years after the wii u debacle.

Welcome back, Paul. I've seen a couple others of your recent posts. Good to see you back.

And yes, the next few years will be glorious.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments