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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: 1st party Switch sales

I predict that all the 1st party retail games on Switch that release in 2017 will sell over 1 million.

 

1-2 Switch

Breath of the Wild

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

ARMS

Splatoon 2

Mario+Rabbids Kingdom Battle

Pokken Tournament DX

Super Mario Odyssey

Fire Emblem Warriors

Xenoblade Chronicles 2



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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An interesting prediction and certainly feasible.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Seems pretty guaranteed, I mean 1-2-Switch after the Switch's only first 3 months has already sold over half a million at 600K and if it can reach 1 million lifetime, there is no way that the rest won't either.



1-2-Switch: 3m
Zelda: 11m (Switch alone)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 10m
Arms: 3m
Splatoon 2: 15m
Mario + Rabbids: 2m (hard to tell)
Pokkén: 1m
Super Mario Odyssey: 12m
Fire Emblem Warriors: 1.2m
Xenoblade 2: 1.5m



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

I don't think XC2 and Fire Emblem Warriors will have enough time to get to 1m in 2017.



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Green098 said:

Seems pretty guaranteed, I mean 1-2-Switch after the Switch's only first 3 months has already sold over half a million at 600K and if it can reach 1 million lifetime, there is no way that the rest won't either.

i think its undertracked, they said it was on track to crossing 1 million at their quarterly report in April and we only have it at 600k at the beginning of June.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

wombat123 said:
I don't think XC2 and Fire Emblem Warriors will have enough time to get to 1m in 2017.

i dont mean by the end of 2017



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
wombat123 said:
I don't think XC2 and Fire Emblem Warriors will have enough time to get to 1m in 2017.

i dont mean by the end of 2017

Well, I didn't read it correctly then.



I doubt Mario Kart 8 Deluxe sells under Zelda or Mario Odyssey. It'll sell higher, and it won't even be close. Historical data shows the same trend every generation from the SNES. MK8 will have incredible longevity; while Zelda and Mario sales will die off to almost nothing in 12-18 months, Mario Kart will sell hundreds of thousands to millions annually over the next 5 years. Being one of the most popular family aimed franchises, it will see huge during holiday seasons. Years down the road, in the final days of the consoles life, it'll be one of the top selling Switch games when everything else is forgotten.

At least this revision of the Switch, we might see Nintendo turn towards a more iterative approach with hardware, rather than generational.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

1-2 Switch - 2 million
Breath of the Wild - 12 million
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 15 million
ARMS - 3.5 million
Splatoon 2 - 16 million
Mario x Rabbids - 1.5 million
Pokken DX - 2 million
Super Mario Odyssey - 13 million
Fire Emblem Warriors - 1.5 million
Xenoblade Chronicles 2 - 1.5 million



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