Forums - Gaming Discussion - When will the PS4 peak?

PS4 peak:

2016 22 12.02%
 
2017 55 30.05%
 
2018 84 45.90%
 
2019 22 12.02%
 
Total:183

Did it peak in 2016? Will it peak in 2017? Or 2018?

I think it will peak in 2018. I don't see an official price cut to $199/$299 this year, bundles and temp price cuts will carry the system this holiday. I think with a well timed official price cut next year coupled with big impact games like GoW, Spiderman and RDR2, 2018 will be its best year. These games will be bigger system sellers than sequels to Destiny and SWBF because they're new entries this gen. Gran Turismo, more than ever with Sport, is an evergreen title that will continue being a system seller next year.



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RDR 2 is going to do wonders for the PS4. Especially in Europe where pc gaming is still strong but they absolutely love Rockstar games.



Everyone said 2016 like ps4 was going to go into terminal decline. 2017 looks to be bigger. 2018 has the best games line up though and maybe Sony will have bigger price cuts in 2018. Even if they cut the Pro by $100 and the slim by $50 this November the benefit of those will still be seen in 2018 as it gets a full year at the cheaper price point. And who knows maybe another cut in 2018.

So while I feel 2017 can beat 2016 it's still possible that 2018 beats them all. But it doesn't really matter which is the peak because they're all massive years. It's hard to see 2019 beating 2016/17/18 but if gta 6 arrives then who knows. Regardless of which year is the peak the years after won't be seeing massive declines until the ps5 releases which imo won't be any earlier then 2020. This machine is a sales beast and not a fad.



I can see PS4 hitting $199 during BF. Whether or not PS will drop the PS4 and/or Pro $50 later in the holiday season to absolutely crush any chance of an XB1 revival with XB1X is really hard to say.

If they price cut this holiday, then next years sales should be slightly less than this year. If they hold the current pricing for the rest of this year, and hit $199 and $299/$349 next year, you will probably see 20M+, 2018 sales.



Kerotan said:
Everyone said 2016 like ps4 was going to go into terminal decline. 2017 looks to be bigger. 2018 has the best games line up though and maybe Sony will have bigger price cuts in 2018. Even if they cut the Pro by $100 and the slim by $50 this November the benefit of those will still be seen in 2018 as it gets a full year at the cheaper price point. And who knows maybe another cut in 2018.

So while I feel 2017 can beat 2016 it's still possible that 2018 beats them all. But it doesn't really matter which is the peak because they're all massive years. It's hard to see 2019 beating 2016/17/18 but if gta 6 arrives then who knows. Regardless of which year is the peak the years after won't be seeing massive declines until the ps5 releases which imo won't be any earlier then 2020. This machine is a sales beast and not a fad.

There's debate between 2017 and 2018 being the peak year but i think we can safely assume that there's 0% of chance 2019 being the peak year.



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It should have peaked last year but looking at the data it seems its gonna peak this year, and then you look at the game lineup of 2018 and i wouldnt even be surprised if it actually peaks next year...



I am torn between it being this year or next.

I believed it would peak this year as I expected sony to drop prices. Makes sense seeing a $199 PS4 and a $299/$350 PS4pro selling much better than the would at last years/current prices.

But then looking at the games coming out next year, and the possibility of there being a bundle for most of those games on the PS4...... its hard to not see it selling even better or at the very least being flat.



PEEPer0nni said:
Kerotan said:
Everyone said 2016 like ps4 was going to go into terminal decline. 2017 looks to be bigger. 2018 has the best games line up though and maybe Sony will have bigger price cuts in 2018. Even if they cut the Pro by $100 and the slim by $50 this November the benefit of those will still be seen in 2018 as it gets a full year at the cheaper price point. And who knows maybe another cut in 2018.

So while I feel 2017 can beat 2016 it's still possible that 2018 beats them all. But it doesn't really matter which is the peak because they're all massive years. It's hard to see 2019 beating 2016/17/18 but if gta 6 arrives then who knows. Regardless of which year is the peak the years after won't be seeing massive declines until the ps5 releases which imo won't be any earlier then 2020. This machine is a sales beast and not a fad.

There's debate between 2017 and 2018 being the peak year but i think we can safely assume that there's 0% of chance 2019 being the peak year.

All hypothetical but what if 2019 had a full year of ps4 at $199 and pro at $299 before a price cut to $249 and a super slim ps4 at $149. 

 

You'd also potentially have the likes of gta 6, the last of us 2 and death Stranding plus obviously more releasing that year.  

 

If the ps5 was nowhere in sight and was targeting a holiday 2020 or 2021 launch then 2019 could be huge. 

 

You could also potentially see a much cheaper psvr sku for something like $199. A lot of potentials above but if the stars aligned,  then who knows. 



Kerotan said:
PEEPer0nni said:

There's debate between 2017 and 2018 being the peak year but i think we can safely assume that there's 0% of chance 2019 being the peak year.

All hypothetical but what if 2019 had a full year of ps4 at $199 and pro at $299 before a price cut to $249 and a super slim ps4 at $149. 

 

You'd also potentially have the likes of gta 6, the last of us 2 and death Stranding plus obviously more releasing that year.  

 

If the ps5 was nowhere in sight and was targeting a holiday 2020 or 2021 launch then 2019 could be huge. 

 

You could also potentially see a much cheaper psvr sku for something like $199. A lot of potentials above but if the stars aligned,  then who knows. 

Rockstar is not the type of company that releases a game every year. No chance for GTA VI this generation. 



Hard to say. Afaik most consoles tend to peak in sales in their third or fourth year. Iirc Sony themselves expect(ed) to sell fewer consoles this year than last, but with the stacked year it's having and good position for big holiday numbers this year could top it. Then we've got some major heavy hitters coming next year along with potential permanent price cuts that could move the system into impulse purchase territory and reinvigorate sales all over again. I really don't know where the peak is gonna be.