Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Switch will sell over 100 million units

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It needs a MK8 every Month to sell 100 million times in 5 to 6 years. 1 million per month x 12 Month= 12 million per year x 6 years=72 million. Lets say an additional 8 million from xmas over 6 years = 80 million. An that is just the best case scenario. I predict between 65 and 70 million after 6 years.



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JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

No, 23m is not a record. Both the Wii and DS peaked higher.

Switch 2 launch in 2020?

Yep, I think when Playstation 5 & Xbox Two launch, Nintendo does a Switch 2.

The technology will have advanced enough to warrent it by then, and they ll want to try and keep atleast somewhat up with the other 2.

So they can still get some 3rd party support.

 

2020 or 2021.

Don't you realize that portable technology will only reach standard PS4 level by 2020?

Also important, why would Nintendo want to keep up with the PS5 when Switch sells well anyway?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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RolStoppable said:
JRPGfan said:

Yep, I think when Playstation 5 & Xbox Two launch, Nintendo does a Switch 2.

The technology will have advanced enough to warrent it by then, and they ll want to try and keep atleast somewhat up with the other 2.

So they can still get some 3rd party support.

 

2020 or 2021.

Don't you realize that portable technology will only reach standard PS4 level by 2020?

Also important, why would Nintendo want to keep up with the PS5 when Switch sells well anyway?

Because if they dont, alot of 3rd party games that come out for PS5/XB2, likely wont be able to play on the Switch.



JRPGfan said:
RolStoppable said:

Don't you realize that portable technology will only reach standard PS4 level by 2020?

Also important, why would Nintendo want to keep up with the PS5 when Switch sells well anyway?

Because if they dont, alot of 3rd party games that come out for PS5/XB2, likely wont be able to play on the Switch.

Which is the same situation as right now. Have you looked at Switch sales at all?



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Soundwave said:

They'll have both anyway. 

Model revisions are simply good for business. No two ways around it. 

Next fiscal year they need to move 14-15 million Switch systems no questions asked at least if its going to have any shot at 100 mill within a reasonable time frame. 

There will be a new Switch model next year, maybe even two (ala New 3DS XL and New 3DS regular). 

They are on track to sell 14-15 million this fiscal year. What would a price cut accomplish other than losing them money? The Wii was supposed to have remodels, but Nintendo never got around to it because it would have pulled resources away from production of the regular model. The Switch would have to maintain compatibility between console and rock, too. It seems like they accounted for this by focusing on Joycons & accessories for new 'models.'

Just, why force a new model into the market if it isn't needed?

p0isonparadise said:

Possibly, I just think Switch will have a more difficult time in Europe/Australia due to it's price.

Well, 4 mil apiece in NA and JP looks pretty solid. So it would have to do reeaally poorly in Europe to wind up around 10 mil.



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give me a much cheaper mini switch, and its possible for the switch ecosystem to sell 100M.



the_dengle said:
Soundwave said:

They'll have both anyway. 

Model revisions are simply good for business. No two ways around it. 

Next fiscal year they need to move 14-15 million Switch systems no questions asked at least if its going to have any shot at 100 mill within a reasonable time frame. 

There will be a new Switch model next year, maybe even two (ala New 3DS XL and New 3DS regular). 

They are on track to sell 14-15 million this fiscal year. What would a price cut accomplish other than losing them money? The Wii was supposed to have remodels, but Nintendo never got around to it because it would have pulled resources away from production of the regular model. The Switch would have to maintain compatibility between console and rock, too. It seems like they accounted for this by focusing on Joycons & accessories for new 'models.'

Just, why force a new model into the market if it isn't needed?

But Nintendo does force new models into the market. The 2DS didn't do them any favours, same with GBA micro and to some extent the DSi XL.

Newer models could be very favourable because they use resources more efficiently. I doubt they'll introduce a Switch Lite before Q4 2018, but there's no doubt in my mind they will make a new model.



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zorg1000 said:
Azuren said:

Feel free to look it up.

If we were strictly talking about home consoles you may have a point but you said "Nintendo as a whole" so you can't just ignore the side of their business that has made up about 70% of their hardware sales in the last 20 years.

 

NES+G&W-104 million

SNES+GB-113 million

N64+GBC-87 million

GC+GBA-103 million

Wii+DS-255 million

Wii U+3DS-will finish over 85 million

 

I dont see a constant decline, i see relative stability (85-115 million) in 5/6 generations with one that did significantly better.

I like your analysis. Thank you for it.



No chance with out the big 3rd parties and the time generational time frame is not positive. Lacking power is not helping either. Sony would have to pull a wwiu with PS5 for Switch to break +70m. Ms getting their shit right for the next gen would not help matters also.



its going to go out of fashion soon just you watch



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