Forums - Gaming Discussion - Switch vs Wii - Who will sell more LT?

It's good to be optimistic but this is really premature! Let's do one goal at a time. Beat the WiiU and GameCube first. THEN, set your sights on the big dogs.



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RolStoppable said:
Louie said:

(...)

Well, that was a long post haha. Last but not least I want to say that even though we don't agree on this I respect your opinion and respect you as a poster. Maybe my posts comes off as harsh but I'm not trying to attack you. (It's the same as in the feminism thread: I'm not against women's rights, I just think we should look at the data instead of arguing from an emotional point of view). 

It was a well-written post, but the bolded part makes me lose respect for you. Soundwave will brush off most of the things you say while constructing strawman arguments to make it look like you are talking nonsense. He has been doing this for years.

He also changes his mind on a whim and tries to fit new data points into his view of the world in order to never have to admit to be wrong about something. In the last couple of years he has been a strong proponent for Nintendo going third party or teaming up with Sony/Microsoft/Disney, because Nintendo supposedly can't compete. Now two months after the Switch launch he says that Microsoft should become a third party publisher on Switch. Another example is his thread about Switch having a soft launch and the system isn't going to get started for real until it will have a relaunch in fall in time for the holiday season. Or his thread about how Nintendo fans should be content with Switch selling 40m lifetime, because that would already be a good result. Both of the aforementioned threads are from 2017.

I want you to know what kind of poster you are talking to. The effort you put in will largely go to waste and you are basically talking to a brickwall. You are better off spending the time for such large posts on starting a new thread instead of having them lost in the shuffle.

I said they should consider a content sharing deal with MS/Sony not go third party (one in which they get exclusives from Sony/MS on Switch/NX and more than vice versa as well), which I'd still be ok with. I did not expect them to execute so well in launching the Switch with regards to being able to find an older audience though, I'll gladly admit that. 

But you have been saying for years now that Nintendo must focus on casual gaming and they can't compete with Sony/MS for that core audience ... yet Switch is doing exactly what you said Nintendo couldn't do. 

Almost 80% of Switch buyers are not buying 1,2 Switch or Just Dance. They are buying core product like Zelda with an insane attach rate. Maybe, just maybe that formula of aiming at core players can work too, Switch is its own system, it doesn't have to be a Wii 3, in fact it would be selling worse if it was in any way branded as a Wii anything. 



Louie said:
RolStoppable said:

It was a well-written post, but the bolded part makes me lose respect for you. Soundwave will brush off most of the things you say while constructing strawman arguments to make it look like you are talking nonsense. He has been doing this for years.

He also changes his mind on a whim and tries to fit new data points into his view of the world in order to never have to admit to be wrong about something. In the last couple of years he has been a strong proponent for Nintendo going third party or teaming up with Sony/Microsoft/Disney, because Nintendo supposedly can't compete. Now two months after the Switch launch he says that Microsoft should become a third party publisher on Switch. Another example is his thread about Switch having a soft launch and the system isn't going to get started for real until it will have a relaunch in fall in time for the holiday season. Or his thread about how Nintendo fans should be content with Switch selling 40m lifetime, because that would already be a good result. Both of the aforementioned threads are from 2017.

I want you to know what kind of poster you are talking to. The effort you put in will largely go to waste and you are basically talking to a brickwall. You are better off spending the time for such large posts on starting a new thread instead of having them lost in the shuffle.

Now that's harsh ;) Well, it was the second time now he brushed my data points aside, so I'm a bit wiser now. Fool me once... thanks for the feedback! 

Do you honestly believe almost 50% of PS4 owners/primary user-buyers are women? 

If that's the case, then Nintendo really doesn't even have to do anything, that audience clearly buys almost half of any console anyway with virtually zero marketing towards them. How many women do you know that bought the PS4 for themselves? Now how many men do you know?

I think logically we can look at that and say there might be some polling errors going on such as if a woman in a household uses a game system for even 15 minuets, technically she can labelled a gamer. 

It's not trying to entirely dismiss the point, I'm just questioning it. Simply not listening to opinions becuase they don't agree with you is not really the smartest way to do things, I've said for many year smartphones would have a huge impact on the game industry, particularily mobile, and a lot of people on this board thought I was crazy, well look at how that turned out. I told Nintendo fans to keep an eye out on tech like Tegra's X1 processor (the exact processor in the Switch, lol) two years ago here. 

Why are you guys so hellbent on Nintendo changing what's working for them right now anyway? This thing is selling better than the Wii even right now. Why go away from that and start marketing in a completely different way? Yeah ok such and such worked .... *10 years ago*, lol, that's an lifetime in technology, Britney Spears was the top selling musical artist 10 years ago too, today she's barely relevant, Blackberry was a billion dollar company, things change, whatever Switch is doing (and it's doing it without a Wii Sports or Brain Training or Nintendogs or Wii Fit type hit) is working for the here and now. 



Soundwave said:

I said they should consider a content sharing deal with MS/Sony not go third party (one in which they get exclusives from Sony/MS on Switch/NX and more than vice versa as well), which I'd still be ok with. I did not expect them to execute so well in launching the Switch with regards to being able to find an older audience though, I'll gladly admit that. 

But you have been saying for years now that Nintendo must focus on casual gaming and they can't compete with Sony/MS for that core audience ... yet Switch is doing exactly what you said Nintendo couldn't do. 

Almost 80% of Switch buyers are not buying 1,2 Switch or Just Dance. They are buying core product like Zelda with an insane attach rate. Maybe, just maybe that formula of aiming at core players can work too, Switch is its own system, it doesn't have to be a Wii 3, in fact it would be selling worse if it was in any way branded as a Wii anything. 

That's the strawman argument that is so typical for you. If I've been saying this for years, then it shouldn't be a problem for you to find a post of mine where I say exactly that; but you won't find such a post. You see gaming in a binary way (hardcore and casual), so whenever someone says that Nintendo shouldn't do the same thing that Sony and Microsoft do, then your process of elimination leads to this answer: "Person says Nintendo shouldn't do hardcore gaming, therefore person says Nintendo must do casual gaming."

Switch is doing exactly what I said that Nintendo should do. Switch is not like the PS4 and XB1, and Switch doesn't have AAA third party games. Of course Switch isn't casual gaming either, because that idea only exists in your mind. You see males in their 20s, 30s and 40s buying Switch and you instantly conclude that those must be the same ones who buy PS4s and XB1s. But it's not those people who drive Switch sales, otherwise the reception of Switch would have been a lot more positive on gaming forums. What we've witnessed in the past few months is pretty much the opposite, Switch was met with hostility.

The current driving force behind the high Switch sales are former gamers who see a system and a Zelda that return to the strengths of the 8- and 16-bit generations. Those gamers were also there for the Wii, but people like you lumped then in with soccer moms and all the other unwanted gamers. That's why you couldn't see how great Switch is. You were blinded by your prejudice, and you still are. That's why you are now desperate to assign Switch success to PS4 and XB1 gamers.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Before saying it will sell more than Wii, let's wait 2019 or 2020 to see if it sell more than Xbox one.

 

the switch will struglle to sell 50 m, don't even joke with Wii numbers.



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RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

I said they should consider a content sharing deal with MS/Sony not go third party (one in which they get exclusives from Sony/MS on Switch/NX and more than vice versa as well), which I'd still be ok with. I did not expect them to execute so well in launching the Switch with regards to being able to find an older audience though, I'll gladly admit that. 

But you have been saying for years now that Nintendo must focus on casual gaming and they can't compete with Sony/MS for that core audience ... yet Switch is doing exactly what you said Nintendo couldn't do. 

Almost 80% of Switch buyers are not buying 1,2 Switch or Just Dance. They are buying core product like Zelda with an insane attach rate. Maybe, just maybe that formula of aiming at core players can work too, Switch is its own system, it doesn't have to be a Wii 3, in fact it would be selling worse if it was in any way branded as a Wii anything. 

That's the strawman argument that is so typical for you. If I've been saying this for years, then it shouldn't be a problem for you to find a post of mine where I say exactly that; but you won't find such a post. You see gaming in a binary way (hardcore and casual), so whenever someone says that Nintendo shouldn't do the same thing that Sony and Microsoft do, then your process of elimination leads to this answer: "Person says Nintendo shouldn't do hardcore gaming, therefore person says Nintendo must do casual gaming."

Switch is doing exactly what I said that Nintendo should do. Switch is not like the PS4 and XB1, and Switch doesn't have AAA third party games. Of course Switch isn't casual gaming either, because that idea only exists in your mind. You see males in their 20s, 30s and 40s buying Switch and you instantly conclude that those must be the same ones who buy PS4s and XB1s. But it's not those people who drive Switch sales, otherwise the reception of Switch would have been a lot more positive on gaming forums. What we've witnessed in the past few months is pretty much the opposite, Switch was met with hostility.

The current driving force behind the high Switch sales are former gamers who see a system and a Zelda that return to the strengths of the 8- and 16-bit generations. Those gamers were also there for the Wii, but people like you lumped then in with soccer moms and all the other unwanted gamers. That's why you couldn't see how great Switch is. You were blinded by your prejudice, and you still are. That's why you are now desperate to assign Switch success to PS4 and XB1 gamers.

You've been saying for many years that the Wii/motion gaming audience is coming back and Nintendo should hang their hat on that type of gaming. 

The Switch isn't doing that. Firstly, it doesn't need a gimmick to be unique like the Wii did. Switch is unique because it's a portable console, it is automatically unique when set next to a PS4/XB1/PS3/Wii U/360/PC. You cannot put any of those into your back pack and go. And it is unique next to a 3DS because a 3DS can't offer the scale of experience that feels anywhere close to a console. So there's no need in this case for Nintendo to bend over backwards to say they're special/different, Switch automatically is. That is already achieved, day 1. 

As for casual/core dilenation Nintendo themselves uses these terms, but fine, if you want specific terminology, I'll put it this way -- Switch is succeeding without a Wii Sports/Brain Training/Wii Fit/Nintendogs type break out hit, is it not? 1,2 Switch has 80% of the Switch userbase not buying it, Just Dance is not selling great, but Legend of Zelda is selling at an incredible rate. So unlike Wii/DS, Switch is already very different, we see it is selling better without "benefit" of a casual/blue ocean/"whatever the hell you want to call it" hit game. 

And what is the new Zelda? It's a AAA core gamer experience that takes definite notes and inspiration from other modern open-world games (aka: namely Skyrim and there's nothing fucking wrong with that). It doesn't matter if its 1st, 2nd, 3rd party, as long as Nintendo has a decent flow of games that people would consider to be a home console game like that, but it is playable on Switch, the system will do well. That's the appeal right there.

And I dunno about you, but the reception to Switch in the core gaming community has been quite positive as far as I can tell, yeah sure you can point to some boo-birds but so what, some of them also hate on the Xbox One. I've shown Switch with Zelda to many PS4/XBox owners and the response is overwhelmingly positive with many of them saying they want to buy one. 

I've been talking about a hybrid console and the Tegra X1 for years. You're upset about stupid arguements you had with PS/XB owners 10 years ago (probably with 11 year old kids) that you can't get over and now need to have some kind of weird "revenge" against them. I don't give a shit about any of that, lol. As far as I see it, that was Nintendo territory to begin with, Sony's big game this spring is what? A Ken Griffey Jr. MLB title, their big game for the holiday is a Star Wars cross-promotion, gee, hmmm .... wonder where I've seen that before. 



Wii, I don't think switch will have the same appeal, and Nintendo consoles die earlier than the competition to make way for the next one.



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Soundwave said:

You've been saying for many years that the Wii/motion gaming audience is coming back and Nintendo should hang their hat on that type of gaming. 

The Switch isn't doing that. Firstly, it doesn't need a gimmick to be unique like the Wii did. Switch is unique because it's a portable console, it is automatically unique when set next to a PS4/XB1/PS3/Wii U/360/PC. You cannot put any of those into your back pack and go. And it is unique next to a 3DS because a 3DS can't offer the scale of experience that feels anywhere close to a console. So there's no need in this case for Nintendo to bend over backwards to say they're special/different, Switch automatically is. That is already achieved, day 1. 

As for casual/core dilenation Nintendo themselves uses these terms, but fine, if you want specific terminology, I'll put it this way -- Switch is succeeding without a Wii Sports/Brain Training/Wii Fit/Nintendogs type break out hit, is it not? 1,2 Switch has 80% of the Switch userbase not buying it, Just Dance is not selling great, but Legend of Zelda is selling at an incredible rate. So unlike Wii/DS, Switch is already very different, we see it is selling better without "benefit" of a casual/blue ocean/"whatever the hell you want to call it" hit game. 

And what is the new Zelda? It's a AAA core gamer experience that takes definite notes and inspiration from other modern open-world games (aka: namely Skyrim and there's nothing fucking wrong with that). It doesn't matter if its 1st, 2nd, 3rd party, as long as Nintendo has a decent flow of games that people would consider to be a home console game like that, but it is playable on Switch, the system will do well. That's the appeal right there.

And I dunno about you, but the reception to Switch in the core gaming community has been quite positive as far as I can tell, yeah sure you can point to some boo-birds but so what, some of them also hate on the Xbox One. I've shown Switch with Zelda to many PS4/XBox owners and the response is overwhelmingly positive with many of them saying they want to buy one. 

I've been talking about a hybrid console and the Tegra X1 for years. You're upset about stupid arguements you had with PS/XB owners 10 years ago (probably with 11 year old kids) that you can't get over and now need to have some kind of weird "revenge" against them. I don't give a shit about any of that, lol. As far as I see it, that was Nintendo territory to begin with, Sony's big game this spring is what? A Ken Griffey Jr. MLB title, their big game for the holiday is a Star Wars cross-promotion, gee, hmmm .... wonder where I've seen that before. 

Like I said in my previous post, you will have to provide a link to me saying the things that you claim I said. Let me demonstrate how this works.

I've highlighted a claim of yours (bolded). Here is proof to the contrary from almost exactly one year ago:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=7882348

Soundwave said:

Who knows what Nintendo could do, they could do something crazy, but I predict ...

NX is a mobile console (a new concept), a little bit like a mini-laptop but a bit thicker. 

Uses a 14nm custom FinFET AMD GPU similar to a Polaris 11 GPU. Has some architectural similarities to the Wii U, so ports from Wii U to NX are relatively easy. Ports from PS4/PC are also easy. 

Has 2 TFLOP power (games run at 720p-1080p) when plugged into the wall (16 compute units), will downscale to 1 TFLOP (8 compute units) for "portable mode" (games run at 540-720p). Developers have to ensure their games run on both of these modes. Can stream to local TVs, tablets, phones, and PCs. 

A Supplemental Compute Device (SCD) will be available later which doubles to GPU power to 4 TFLOP (32 compute units total), this is entirely optional however. As such, system will never be outdated, because Nintendo can release new SCDs to keep pace with whatever Sony/MS do. System is designed to have a library that continues on for a long time (like STEAM ecosystem). 

Has a new type of "Morphing" Controller, a free form LCD display with swappable transparent plastic face plates that allow for different types of physical controls. Ships with a traditional controller style face plate but also a new type of non-traditional wacky/crazy style face plate. 

Will ship with a free Amiibo + Amiibo starter game, $299.99-$349.99 MSRP, March 2017 release date, Legend of Zelda day 1, Pikmin 4 not long after.

And now everyone who sees this can conclude that you are full of shit.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

TallSilhouette said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
Just want to add that 2 of Nintendo's 4 handhelds have broken 100 million units sold- The original Gameboy and the DS. The worst selling handheld was the 3DS which is still over 60 million. 100 million sales for a Nintendo handheld is not unrealistic.

It's less realistic for a relatively expensive, not very portable handheld competing in a post smart device age. However novel and appealing the hybrid aspect proves to be, it's not going to be the same craze that propelled previous consoles past that mark.

First, the whole "Nintendo's handheld market is being consumed by mobile" is a farce. The 3DS is the best selling console this generation. Pokemon Go has proved that mobile can be used to increase handheld game sales (which was Iwata's plan from the start). There is this faulty assumption from the analyst that mobile and handheld are mutually exclusive. Pokemon Go proves they are not.

The reason the 3DS struggled was because of the system launched with subpar games, a 3D gimmick that most people didn't want, was too expensive and didn't have a great battery life. The 3DS only sold about 3 million its first year, and sales only improved when Nintendo slashed the price and some games finally came out. The 3DS, like the Wii U, had this issue where Nintendo still wanted the expanded market's money but not have to worry about them. This is how you got Nintendogs+Cats and Wii Fit U. Sure, great on the DS< but the DS also had plenty of other titles for these consumers as well. Heck, the 3DS's launch lineup was forgettable. Does anyone care about Steel Diver and Pilotwings Resort?

The Switch doesn't have these problems. As I type this, the Switch has likely outsold the 3DS's first year (which launched in the firs quarter as well). Nintendo has two big hits with Zelda and Mario Kart. Splatoon will sell big in Japan. SMO will sell big. There are other games we don't know about. There will eventually be Pokemon. By all accounts, I don't see why the Switch couldn't break 100 mil



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The Wii will remain supreme.



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