Forums - Nintendo Discussion - What will Nintendo need to do to sell 10 million Switchs FY/2018?

Are they well positioned to sell 10 million Switchs FY/2018; if not what do they need to do?

They are well positioned 159 62.11%
 
No they need a price cut 14 5.47%
 
No they need Pokemon 20 7.81%
 
No they need more third-party 18 7.03%
 
No they need Combination ... 6 2.34%
 
No they need Combination ... 19 7.42%
 
See results 20 7.81%
 
Total:256

Nintendo has just presented their results for FY2017. Amongst other things, the Switch appears to off to an impressive start, shipping 2.74 million units in March (with the lack of stock in key sales regions at the end of April, I think it is safe to assume they have sold much of that stock). Based on these results, Nintendo predicts that they will ship 10 million units FY2018 (April 1 2017 - March 31 2018). The matter that we will discuss here is whether or not the Switch is well positioned to meet that target. Moreover, if you believe that they are well positioned, what adjustments can they make to their strategy so that they can meet their goal?

To start things off, I believe that they are overall well positioned, but there is one threat and a few adjustments that I believe they need to take into consideration. I will provide a break down of the points they are well positioned in, the large threat to the system, and the few other adjustments that could help it.

Areas where they are well positioned in:

1. Unique and compelling hardware proposition to gamers and families: The Switch is not a stationary home console and it is not a traditional handheld system. It is a system that is less powerful than a home console but far more portable and can provide a home console-like gaming experience pretty much anywhere and in various ways. In addition, the system comes with a dock and two controllers that should make it instantly usable in multiplayer situations for families.

2. Good advertising: The system's advertising has pretty much been on point. They have risen above confusion surrouding the advertising for 3DS and Wii U (the former largely made many think that the system is simply a DS that lets you play DS games in 3D as opposed to a new system; the latter made people some people believe that the Gamepad was a tablet-like addon for Wii). Everything from the initial reveal trailer, to the Super Bowel ad, to the slogans on their site are on point on explaining what the system is and what makes it unique. Showing people playing console quality titles like Zelda, MK8, and Skyrim pretty much anywhere also further drives home their point.

3. Decent software lineup: The Switch's first year line up so far is decent. There are a lot of ports and remakes, but that is not unusual for the initial year of any system. In fact, I believe home console ports and remakes make a lot of sense for Switch because it lets you take these games anywhere with you, which is a big reason to bring older games on stationary systems to it. The system's first year right now consists of a port of a critically accallaimed and popular Zelda game, a remake of an entry in the evergreen Mario Kart franchise, ARMS which is a new IP, Splatoon 2 which is the followup to the successful Splatoon series, a new 3D Mario game which tend to sell well, and Xenoblade 2 which is a niche game but one that still has a decent base. On top of that, there are important essential  third-party releases as well in the form of FIFA, Minecraft, Skyrim, NBA2K18. Now this line up is not perfect and there are ways Nintendo could adjust it to make the goal of reaching 10 million in the first year more attainable.

Area that is a threat to the system:

1. Price and bundle: To be blunt about it, I believe the price of the system ranges from being barely acceptable in some regions to ludcaris in other regions. In the US, the system is priced about the same as a PS4, which I believe is barely acceptable. My reasoning is not because PS4 has better graphics, because I can counter that with Switch being a portable. However, PS4 has a larger line up and it has non-gaming media features that the Switch does not at the moment. Moreover, the PS4 comes bundled with Uncharted 4, whereas the Switch is not bundled with anything. In Australia, the system is priced at $470 (whereas PS4 with Uncharted 4 costs $350) which is the ludacris price I was talking about in the other regions. It does not come as much of a surprise that the system has not been supply constrained in Australia since early April (demand has most likely significantly decreased since launch in Australia). The price of the system in other regions fall between Australia's ludacris price and US's barely acceptable price. This is going to become an even larger issue when we approach the holidays and MS and Sony both reduce the cost of PS4 Slim and Xbox One S (I project by $50 USD for both; but could be as high as $100 USD); I think the system will have great difficulty competing if Nintendo continues to keep the price as is (or does not reduce it enough), and as such I believe it will be very difficult for Nintendo to come even close to 10 million units at this price (right now my ultra-conservative prediction based on the price and the fact that we do not have a baseline of sales for the system due to it being supply constrained in many places and there has not been sufficinent tracking, hence why the prediction is more conservative, is that they will around 5.5 million units; but they can easily sell way more with proper price adjustments). A good, albeit still risky scenerio, is for Nintendo to price the system at $250 USD (or 50 insert-local-currency cheaper than a PS4 Slim) with a bundled game for the holidays. The best case scenerio would be to sell the console by itself at $200 and a bundle with a game for $250. 

Another reason why I am concerned by the price is because previous portable systems like 3DS and Vita ran into difficulty maintaining their respective momentum at $250 (the 3DS responded very well to a price cut, Sony waited way too long to make one and the system could not regain much momentum from it). The Sony case with the Vita is especially important to look at because as with the Switch, the Vita was originally marketed as a portable system capable of offering home console experiences; but to many people the price was still not justifiable.

Adjustments that should be made (in order of most to least important):

1. Mainline Pokemon: Mainline Pokemon games move systems and sell a great deal themselves. Having one in the launch year, even if it is a remake or a third-edition of Pokemon Sun and Moon, could still do wonders for the system and make the price at least more justifable. Things like Smash 4 port and Metroid teaser would also help, but mainline Pokemon should be prioratized.

2. Monster Hunter: Again will have a similar effect as Pokemon but in Japan.

3. More third-party ports of older console games: The Switch may not be powerful enough to decently run many newer games, so I expect to see very few new AAA titles for the Switch from third-parties. On the other hand, the portability of the system could lend itself to being a great place for third-party ports of older games such as GTA V or Tomb Raider (2013 and 2015). GTA V, in particular, could convince people to pickup the system because there is a big case to be made about being able to play a game like that on the go, no to mention it still has great legs.

4. Non-gaming features: I think a few non-gaming features like a proper browser with video playback support and some streaming apps could convince some people to pick a Switch over a multimedia tablet (particularly when you take the game factor into account as well).

5. Virtual Console and remakes/ports of older games: this is more of a minor point, but there are quite a few people interested in Nintendo system for nostalgia and being able to play older Nintendo games (and maybe even other non-Nintendo platforms) on the go could provide purchasing incentives to some. Of course, VC and porting should not be done by Nintendo studios that focus on making new games but should delegated to smaller parts of the company like NERD (the people at Nintendo that work on various system and developer features on Nintendo systems, as well as DS/Wii VC on Wii U and NES emulator for NES Classic Edition) or a third-party.

With all of that being said. Do you guys think that Nintendo needs to do something to attain their goal of 10 million Switchs FY/2018? Or do you believe that they are well positioned to achieve said goal?



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Mario Oddesey Switch bundle at 249$ for the holidays.... sales go nuts.

 

If PS4 does 199$ for the holidays,.... and Nintendo sticks with 299$...... I can see that effecting sales abit.

100$ less, for something 4-5 times more powerfull, and bundled with a game?

 

Nintendo will need to minimum bundle a game, and preferably go down abit in price too.



LOL there is only one option in your poll?

Either way, they are on the best track to sell 10mio worldwide until FY18.
With mario kart deluxe and super mario odyssey, arms, splatoon2, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and zelda still selling like hotcakes. Selling 10mio seems easy, and by E3 this year, they perhaps show new titles for 2018, that will sell even more consoles in 2017



piopakk said:
LOL there is only one option in your poll?

Either way, they are on the best track to sell 10mio worldwide until FY18.
With mario kart deluxe and super mario odyssey, arms, splatoon2, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, and zelda still selling like hotcakes. Selling 10mio seems easy, and by E3 this year, they perhaps show new titles for 2018, that will sell even more consoles in 2017

Yeah I pressed enter by accident before I inputed the other options...lol. Should be fixed now.



Games, games, games.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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Dont agree with you on this.Leaving outside the fact that the Switch is a hybrid and not a handheld(and thus making the price for it good not overpriced as you suggest), Nintendo is, at the moment, on track to reach that goal and even surprass it.

The Switch probably have sold a bit more than 1 million this month, and due to the lasting effect of MK 8 Deluxe, it is poised to sell betwenn 1 and 2 millions next month.Not only that, they already have a killer game in the form of Splatoon 2 for Japan, and that game, alongside the other releases that the Switch will have, is garanteed to make it sell at least 3 millions in Japan.So those things alone should make Nintendo pass 5 millions easy, if they dont fuck anything up.

As of now, I really dont see an issue with the Switch.I mean, yes it would have been nice if it came with multimedia apps and had VC since the launch, but no major or serios issue.And as long as Nintendo dont get cocky and stop pushing itself to try to enhace their marketing, make better deals, and so on, this piece of hardware will be a success.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

What does Nintendo need to do to sell 10 Million Switch?

Limit production or they'll overshoot those numbers



Only ten million for the fiscal year? They don't have to do anything other than release their announced games for that.

I hope they don't do that, though. I want my prediction of the Switch beating Wii U shipments by the end of the fiscal year to be correct.



All they need is to keep momentum, they definitely don't need any price cut in 1st year, fact that Switch is selling like crazy with current price point proves that, but I can see for instance MK8D bundle for holiday season for current price point.



JRPGfan said:

Mario Oddesey Switch bundle at 249$ for the holidays.... sales go nuts.

If PS4 does 199$ for the holidays,.... and Nintendo sticks with 299$...... I can see that effecting sales abit.

100$ less, for something 4-5 times more powerfull, and bundled with a game?

Nintendo will need to minimum bundle a game, and preferably go down abit in price too.

Brand new game that would be sell alone in millions and that will be alone huge systemy seller, bundled with Switch at lower price point!? Highly unlikely in any case, best guess would be MK8D bundle for $299.

Switch is selling great now and Nintendo cant keep up with demand, and actual with Mario Odyssey launch and already available games like Zelda BotW, MK8D and Splatoon 2 in that time, Switch will be much more attractive product that it is now.

Yes PS4 around 4x more powerful, but PS4 is just home console, while Switch is handheld and home console in same time, Switch also offers two controllers for multiplayer right out of box.

With great sales, Nintendo dont need bundle or price cut, but like I wrote, I can see MK8D bundle for $299 in holiday season. Price cut is only possible if sales start being bad, but with MK8D, ARMS and Splatoon, Switch seems it will have pretty good summer, and definitely will have strong holiday season in any case.