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None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

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Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
RolStoppable said:

I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap.

You're right about that. Maybe my prediction doesn't seem so realistic right now. But keep in mind that console sales tend to become more frontloaded as the generations pass by. I still think my prediction has a good chance to be close to reality.

 

RolStoppable said:

Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed.

13 months and that includes one and a half (or less) Christmas seasons. It skews the numbers a little bit but it's still far better than 2012 being 1 month.

 

RolStoppable said:

My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS.

Yes I am. I had to accept the risk. As you are accepting the opposite risk by assuming NS is replacing 3DS.

You're aware that you're predicting for NS less than a half of the 7th gen and little more than the 8th gen (worst gen in Nintendo's history), right?

 

RolStoppable said:

My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Very interesting. I didn't have the time to read it yet but I've noticed there's a topic just for NS's lifetime sales predictions. The poll isn't actually well conceived because the higher numbers are naturally more spread. Anyway, I thought people were more optimistic about NS. It seems that I'm not that isolated.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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SpokenTruth said:
Zod95 said:

I didn't hear your prediction for NS's lifetime sales.

Greater than 20 million.

Mine too. I guess we're on the same boat:

"Some people want Switch to fail so badly that they'll ignore data, facts and reality to keep to their agenda."

It's easy to criticize and attack others' predictions while we're incapable of producing our own, isn't it?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:
SpokenTruth said:

Greater than 20 million.

Mine too. I guess we're on the same boat:

"Some people want Switch to fail so badly that they'll ignore data, facts and reality to keep to their agenda."

It's easy to criticize and attack others' predictions while we're incapable of producing our own, isn't it?

"I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M"
Clearly.

I'm not incapable.  I just don't owe you one.  But let me tell you what predictions that are really easy criticize...those that ignore data, facts and reality.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

Zod95 said:
RolStoppable said:

I am extrapolating month 3 sales based on month 2 sales and the knowledge that Switch is still selling through its stock quickly. There's no good reason to assume that month 3 sales will be notably lower than month 2 sales. But even ignoring that. VGC has been showing weekly sales of ~200k after the launch month. Wii U had weekly sales of ~40k. That's a huge gap.

You're right about that. Maybe my prediction doesn't seem so realistic right now. But keep in mind that console sales tend to become more frontloaded as the generations pass by. I still think my prediction has a good chance to be close to reality.

RolStoppable said:

Your Wii U breakdown combines 2012 and 2013 for a period of 14 months that includes two holiday seasons. This skews the numbers and is not an accurate or honest representation of how Wii U performed.

13 months and that includes one and a half (or less) Christmas seasons. It skews the numbers a little bit but it's still far better than 2012 being 1 month.

RolStoppable said:

My prediction for Switch lifetime sales is more than 100m units. I am obviously factoring in that Switch is the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS and that's the most blatant mistake in your prediction. You are aware that your prediction will be very wrong if Switch is also replacing the 3DS.

Yes I am. I had to accept the risk. As you are accepting the opposite risk by assuming NS is replacing 3DS.

You're aware that you're predicting for NS less than a half of the 7th gen and little more than the 8th gen (worst gen in Nintendo's history), right?

RolStoppable said:

My signature contains the link to one of my threads, but I post it for convenience because many members have disabled signatures in their VGC settings.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719

The thread was created shortly after the Switch presentation in January and calls out all predictions of 50m or less. This means that I was and am so confident in Switch that I consider anything below 60m ridiculous.

Very interesting. I didn't have the time to read it yet but I've noticed there's a topic just for NS's lifetime sales predictions. The poll isn't actually well conceived because the higher numbers are naturally more spread. Anyway, I thought people were more optimistic about NS. It seems that I'm not that isolated.

1. I am not seeing a trend where console sales are getting more frontloaded with each passing generation. The only verifiable trend in generational console sales is that you can't count on there being a trend as things can change dramatically from one generation to the next.

2. You could break down Wii U sales into 12 month periods, having the first such period going from mid-November 2012 to mid-November 2013. This way you get comparable timeframes and each one has the benefit of only one holiday season.

3. My prediction of more than 100m constitutes a minimum, hence the "more than". I didn't need to raise the stakes any higher, because the VGC consensus was so low. When people were predicting 30-40m units, then I would have already been far above the average with 70m or 80m. 100m is a nice round number and provides more than enough shock value; it was also the highest poll option in the thread where I originally posted this prediction. Using 110m, 120m etc. wouldn't have had any benefit for me, rather it would have only made it harder for me to be right.

And yes, I am aware that 100m isn't much in comparison to Nintendo's best of 255m between the Wii and DS, but 100m is pretty close to most of Nintendo's generations, so Switch finishing with a total that constitutes as Nintendo's second-best performance in history isn't that tall of a order. There's no shame in not coming close to the combined Wii and DS total, because that was an extraordinary performance that nobody else has come close to either.

4. If you find the time to read my thread's original post, you'll come across a link to a prediction thread with a better poll. Your prediction of 20m isn't an outlier as it isn't far below the average of 30-40m. Most predictions were in the range of 20-50m at the time.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

SpokenTruth said:
Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?

Have they confirmed that though?  Or are you just basing that off the rumor from inside sources from Financial Times?



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Zod95 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Bolded the games which had Bundles. Of course this pushed their numbers pretty high. What do you think Nintendoland would have sold without it's bundle? I doubt it could have beaten 1-2 Switch, heck, I don't think it would have reached 500k lifetime without the bundle, as not even casuals picked it up. Had they bundled 1-2 Switch, it would already be close to Nintendoland's total sales and would have easely outsold it 2-1 by now?

Which leaves us with 1-2 Switch and Wii Play, as they didn't got bundled with a console. But Wii Play came with a Wiimote for barely more than a Wiimote alone, so naturally many (including me) bought it for the Wiimote and enjoyed the fact that they had a partygame to play when everybody got drunk.

So all in all, a very unfair comparision, though I don't think you realised that before posting.

I agree to some extent with what you're saying. But Nintendo Land was a disaster. 2 times that isn't pretty either. Moreover, I don't remember Wii Fit being bundled. If it ever was, it was not significant.

Basically the only Bundle I could find after 2010 for the Wii, so I wouldn't call it that insignificant. 



Blood_Tears said:
SpokenTruth said:
Zod, are you aware they've already upped their production run to 18 million for the fiscal year?

Have they confirmed that though?  Or are you just basing that off the rumor from inside sources from Financial Times?

Do you mean the Wall Street Journal?

Hardly known for making shit up for no reason.



Massimus - "Trump already has democrat support."

SpokenTruth said:
Blood_Tears said:

Have they confirmed that though?  Or are you just basing that off the rumor from inside sources from Financial Times?

Do you mean the Wall Street Journal?

Hardly known for making shit up for no reason.

Got it, so it's not confirmed then nor did Nintendo state this. That's all I needed to know.



The thread is old, but more 2017-Blockbuster ala The Evil Within 2 ect do not appear on switch. The E3 has shown it. Do not understand why this is so bad for Nintendo fans to be honest. Actually, the thread would have to get an update.



My Game of the Year 2019: Death Stranding https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NFHK9zXyXsw&feature=emb_logo

Cant wait of FF7 Remake/Last of Us 2/Ghost of Tsushima

SpokenTruth said:

"I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M"
Clearly.

More than 20M then. We're on the same boat.

 

SpokenTruth said:

I'm not incapable.  I just don't owe you one.  But let me tell you what predictions that are really easy criticize...those that ignore data, facts and reality.

Any prediction is easy to criticize when we don't make our own.

You owe me nothing, zero. Zero is also my consideration for critics to my predictions from people that don't make their own.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M