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None of the blockbuster 3rd party games coming to switch 2017

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Switch lifetime figures?

12-15 million 72 7.05%
 
15-20 million 58 5.68%
 
20-25 million 78 7.64%
 
25-30 million 119 11.66%
 
Way more than the above 694 67.97%
 
Total:1,021
zorg1000 said:
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

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Zod95 said:
160rmf said:

Nintendo handhelds didn't need super-original titles to sell well.

Nintendo consoles did.

SNES didn't.

Edit: nevermind. It had 3rd party support, matches with your cherry picking.



 

 

We reap what we sow

oniyide said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Thats not the point. Most of them are focused on PC or consoles

And they also make up a lot of the sales for 3rd party games, but if they are focused on PCs and consoles then it doesnt really matter what Ninty does in that case. When we talk blockbuster (GTA, Red Dead, Etc) hell even the Final Fantasys and main Kingdom Hearts isnt coming

Nitnendo is going to use the 3DS methodology....just in a console. 



Do 3rd parties still make new blockbusters? They did well in the 7th gen but don't seem to have had much success with new AAA IPs in the 8th.

The high end is overrated anyway, most of their sales are down to marketing. The Minecrafts, Overwatches and Rocket Leagues are more important than the Bioshocks, Destinys and Watch Dogs.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

S.T.A.G.E. said:
oniyide said:

And they also make up a lot of the sales for 3rd party games, but if they are focused on PCs and consoles then it doesnt really matter what Ninty does in that case. When we talk blockbuster (GTA, Red Dead, Etc) hell even the Final Fantasys and main Kingdom Hearts isnt coming

Nitnendo is going to use the 3DS methodology....just in a console. 

yeah i know, and they are better for it



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Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

Check your facts.



Gameplay > Graphics

Substance > Style

Art Direction > Realism

GoOnKid said:
Zod95 said:
As expected, more than two thirds of people here think NS will sell well above 30M. The poll could have been created in a more neutral way. I'm also pessimistic. I believe NS's lifetime sales will be between 20M and 25M. But that's just me.

Regarding the OP, it's normal that the Nintendo machine doesn't get some major 3rd party titles. Nothing new. What makes me pessimistic about NS is that it doesn't have a (or several) super-original title driving console's sales, like the Wii had Wii Sports / Play / Fit. 1-2-Switch is selling poorly and the other titles are more of the same from previous generations. Without a casual market to cater to and the hardcore base to be sticked with PlayStation and Xbox, NS is doomed to have WiiU's fate.

Check your facts.

First 10 weeks:

Wii Sports: 3.7M

Wii Play: 1.2M

Wii Fit: 1.4M

Nintendo Land: 1.6M

1-2-Switch: 0.5M

 

Lifetime:

Wii Sports: 82.5M

Wii Play: 28.9M

Wii Fit: 22.7M

Nintendo Land: 4.5M

1-2-Switch: ???

 

Do you know why Nintendo Land ended up selling just 3x more its initial 10 weeks while the others ended up selling 20x more? Because the others were a novelty and they took some time to educate the market. When Nintendo Land came the market was already educated. It turned out to be a flop, it didn't drive console's sales and Mario games ended up being the best selling WiiU games.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Not only it's selling very, very, VERY poorly (one third of Nintendo Land's horrible performance) but also it's not driving any console's sales. At least Nintendo Land was the best selling title at that time. 1-2-Switch is just another title, like Bomberman. Both will probably finish out of NS's top 10.



Prediction made in 14/01/2014 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 70M      WiiU: 25M

Prediction made in 01/04/2016 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 100M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 18M

Prediction made in 15/04/2017 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 90M      XOne: 40M      WiiU: 15M      Switch: 20M

Prediction made in 24/03/2018 for 31/12/2020:      PS4: 110M      XOne: 50M      WiiU: 14M      Switch: 65M

Zod95 said:

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?

That this percentage will keep growing throughout this year, because the video game market is momentum-based. Right now it's 47% (didn't check for myself, I trust you on this) because the timeframe for comparison is so short. If it's extended to ten months, Switch is going to be in the area of selling 200% better than Wii U (~10.5m vs. ~3.5m). If it's shortened to one month, then Switch is selling only around 25% better than Wii U (~2.5m vs. ~2m).



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Zod95 said:
GoOnKid said:

Check your facts.

First 10 weeks:

Wii Sports: 3.7M

Wii Play: 1.2M

Wii Fit: 1.4M

Nintendo Land: 1.6M

1-2-Switch: 0.5M

 

Lifetime:

Wii Sports: 82.5M

Wii Play: 28.9M

Wii Fit: 22.7M

Nintendo Land: 4.5M

1-2-Switch: ???

 

Do you know why Nintendo Land ended up selling just 3x more its initial 10 weeks while the others ended up selling 20x more? Because the others were a novelty and they took some time to educate the market. When Nintendo Land came the market was already educated. It turned out to be a flop, it didn't drive console's sales and Mario games ended up being the best selling WiiU games.

1-2-Switch is even worse. Not only it's selling very, very, VERY poorly (one third of Nintendo Land's horrible performance) but also it's not driving any console's sales. At least Nintendo Land was the best selling title at that time. 1-2-Switch is just another title, like Bomberman. Both will probably finish out of NS's top 10.

It will have great legs, and it probably cost next to nothing to develop, so it's already making money, I guess. Since it's about to reach 1m sales already. As the Switch userbase grows, so will the sales of 1-2 Switch. And also, the main hardware driver in the launch period was Zelda anyway. It's good that it wasn't 1-2 Switch, because now it is mostly ex gamers who buy the system. They have the cash, they have the interest to buy more games. The casual crowd doesn't.

Another thing is the vocabulary you use. How can sales of 1.6M in the first 10 weeks be horrible? How is even 0.5M poor when the game had low costs? We do not have the production values of either games, so calling it poor or horrible is not possible because of lacking context.



Gameplay > Graphics

Substance > Style

Art Direction > Realism

Zod95 said:
zorg1000 said:

With each passing day your prediction gets more and more unrealistic.

I don't think so. From the beginning I was expecting a strong start. NS is doing 47% better than WiiU. What does that tell you?

absolutely nothing.

Its also doing about 50% better than 3DS, 15% better than XBO & 75% as much as PS4.

What does that tell you?



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.