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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bloomberg: Nintendo Traders Signal Switch Could Be Bigger Hit Than the Wii

Traders are sending signals that Nintendo Co.’s newest console Switch may be on its way to becoming a bigger hit than the Wii, the company’s best-selling home console of all-time.

Since the Switch went on sale on March 3, the Kyoto-based game maker outperformed the broader Japanese stock market by 20 percentage points through Thursday. That’s more than double the 8.9 percentage point outperformance during an equal time period that followed the Wii launch in 2006. It’s also far ahead of the nearly 30 point lag shares suffered in 2012 after the disastrous launch of the Wii U, which went on to become Nintendo’s s worst-selling home console in history.

 

The strong performance has come despite criticism of the Switch’s small software lineup and reports of hardware issues, such as the console physically bending after continued use and poor reception with its controllers. Others have bemoaned the difficulty in finding a unit even a month after launch.

The company’s long-history of conservative production targets has some analysts worried. Jefferies Group analyst Atul Goyal estimated that 2.5 to 3 million Switch units were sold in March, ahead of Nintendo’s target of 2 million. But he warned the company could disappoint on April 27 when it announces sales forecasts for the fiscal year through March 2018.

“Nintendo’s guidance of Switch volumes and OP (operating profit) numbers could very well underwhelm the market,” Goyal wrote in a report to clients this week.

Limited supply has driven up prices on some auction sites. On eBay, the Switch goes for an average price of $450 per unit, a 50 percent markup to the retail price. In Japan, premiums range from from 15 to 40 percent on Yahoo Japan Corp., operator of the country’s main auction site. 

Here’s a quick look at Switch sales estimates for the fiscal year through March 2018:

5 million Jefferies (April 5)
6.5 million Bank of America (March 23)
7.5 million SMBC Nikko (April 6)
10 million Mizuho (March 21)
13 to 16 million Ace Institute Research (March 21)

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-07/nintendo-traders-signal-switch-could-be-bigger-hit-than-the-wii



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I don't really see it, but hey good for Nintendo if it is. We would know by June/July if it was crushing like 400k/month in NPD even in non-holiday months and selling 60k-80k a week in Japan regularly in its first year and dominating the PAL/Euro charts. The Wii did all that and it was evident within months of release. 

The difference is 1,2 Switch is no Wii Sports. Not even in the same ball park.

Zelda is great and all but Switch is mainly selling to 20-35 year old men likely at this point. 

If Switch can sell over time about as well as the 3DS or a bit better, that would be satisfactory. That's a more realistic target. 



It has a real chance



Soundwave said:

I don't really see it, but hey good for Nintendo if it is. We would know by June/July if it was crushing like 400k/month in NPD even in non-holiday months and selling 60k-80k a week in Japan regularly in its first year and dominating the PAL/Euro charts. The Wii did all that and it was evident within months of release. 

The difference is 1,2 Switch is no Wii Sports. Not even in the same ball park. 

Zelda is great and all but Switch is mainly selling to 20-35 year old men likely at this point.  

If Switch can sell over time about as well as the 3DS or a bit better, that would be satisfactory. That's a more realistic target. 

Well Wii start dying quite fast around 2010. and was completely dead buy 2012, while Switch could have long life like 3DS has.

Zelda BotW is huge system seller.

You dont know that.

For the record, I don't say it will outperform Wii or come near to it, but of course it has some chanches.



Traders know very little. They don't have access to that much information right now, and will largely be betting based on what has been a strong launch, albeit with limited stock. The current quarter (April to June) is the major test for the system.

I don't see Switch selling as quickly as Wii did, but I think it could potentially have a long life-span, especially if we see revisions coming along. I'd guess 10-12 million sales in the first fiscal year will be the highest sales range we see. That would be a very good start, it'd put Switch at the 12-14 million mark after 13 months on the market.



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75 mil life time will be a great achievement I am thinking.



Switch!!!

if u guys have some money to invest. put some in to Nintendo stock



Amazing.



That's hilarious. It could do very well, but not 100m+ well.



So we're supposed to judge how well a console will perform by how the stock market values the company? Yeah, sure.



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