That bastard!

I suppose it is certainly possible for the Switch to reach shipments close to or over 5 million this quarter, but I just can't help but feel that it will miss that mark. Maybe 4 million is how much it can sell in the first quarter. I do hope for over 5, but I also thought 80m by the end of the year was a sure-fire thing and they just narrowly missed that mark.

The Switch is getting big exclusives like 3D World & Monster Hunter this quarter, as well as new hardware designs based on those games, so it's a possibility.

He's agreeing that you were right, and he was wrong.

Based on the Hardware Sales Data from Nintendo's Shipments, we have the following figures with the 3 quarter numbers in parentheses, and the percentage of that 3 quarter number towards the final yearly total being underlined:

FY 03/18 - 15.05 million units (12.12); 80.53156146%
FY 03/19 - 16.95 million units (14.48); 85.42772861%
FY 03/20 - 21.03 million units (17.75); 84.40323348%

So we're basically in a range between 80.5-85.4%.

If we applied each of those percentages to this Fiscal Year, with the number currently at 24.10 million units, then these would be the 3 projected final totals, with the projected Q4 sales in parentheses.

~80.5% - 29.93 million units (5.83)
~85.4% - 28.21 million units (4.11)
~84.4% - 28.55 million units (4.45)

So, we'd be looking at a final total somewhere between the range of 28.21 - 29.93 million units for the Fiscal Year.

This would place it just short of that coveted 30 million mark that, to my knowledge, only the DS has been able to crack. But there's one thing that makes me doubt these numbers and makes me think the range will be higher. Two of the three projected figures listed here would mean that the Q4 shipments would be lower than the Q1 shipments, which have not been the case up to this point. And the one projected figure where the Q4 shipment would be higher is so miniscule that it would essentially be flat.

Q4 shipments for each of the Switch's Fiscal Years have been consistently higher than Q1 shipments and I don't see how this Fiscal Year will be any different, especially when this quarter is loaded with software from Bowser's Fury to Bravely Default 2 to Persona 5 Strikers in the U.S., all capped off with Monster Hunter Rise to close out that quarter in late March.

It could go either way, but I'm leaning more towards pro-30 million, than anti-30 million.

There are other possibilities.

They project 26.5m, usually too low so we can give it leeway of 1m so 27.5m. It could be that sell- through isn't too close to shipments either.

I made some notes about Switch rising up the ranks on the platform totals chart on vgchartz.
As of February 13th.

Switch recently outsold GBA (16.96) then SNES (17.17) in Japan.
Switch recently outsold PS1 (9.04), Xbox 360 (9.16), and Wii (9.48) in rest of world.
Switch recently outsold 3DS (75.92) globally.

Switch needs 100,000 sales to outsell PS3 in North America [Achieved on vgchartz as of 20th February, 2021].

Switch needs 420,000 sales to outsell 3DS in Europe.
Switch needs 660,000 sales to outsell GBA in Europe.

Switch needs 1.08 million sales to outsell NES in Japan.

Switch needs 2.46 million sales to outsell PSP globally.
Switch needs 2.88 million sales to outsell GBA globally.

I made some other notes about consoles Switch is likely to overtake during the next year or so,
but for now I’ll stick to what’s happened in the past few months and what will happen during the next few months.

Switch to overtake on vgchartz notes:
First written as of February 13th.
Heavily updated April 10th.

Switch recently outsold GBA (16.96) then SNES (17.17) in Japan.

Switch recently outsold PS1 (9.04), Xbox 360 (9.16), and Wii (9.48) in rest of world.

Switch recently outsold 3DS (75.92) globally.

Switch needs 100,000 sales to outsell PS3 in North America.
(achieved 20th of February)

Switch needs 420,000 sales to outsell 3DS in Europe.
(on track to overtake during 20th of March). Achieved.
Switch needs 660,000 sales to outsell GBA in Europe. (on track for April 3rd).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 1.08 million sales to outsell NES in Japan. (1st May?)
Accelerated April 24th.

Switch needs 2.46 million sales to outsell PSP globally. (17 April?)
(accelerated to April 3rd).
Achieved during week before April 3rd/Easter.

Switch needs 2.88 million sales to outsell GBA globally. (1st May?)
(accelerated to April 17).
Achieved April 3rd/Easter.

Other consoles the Switch is expected to overtake this next year or so.

During 2021 in North America: Xbox One (31.95*) and NES (33.49).
At 30.82 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in North America: PS4 (37.93*) and GBA (40.39).
Possibly even PS1 (40.78).

During 2021 in Europe: PSP (24.41) and Xbox 360 (25.87).

During H1 2022 in Europe: approaching, but not reaching PS1 (31.09).

During 2021 in Japan: PSP (20.01), PS1 (21.59), PS2 (23.18), 3DS (24.64*).
19.22 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in Japan: continuing to sell well.

During 2021 in rest of world: DS (12.43), PS3 (12.53). 10.96 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 in rest of world: PSP (15.26).

During 2021 globally: Xbox 360 (85.80), PS4 87.41). 82.43 million as of April 10th.

During H1 2022 globally: Wii (101.64), PS1 (102.50).

So you can see that Switch sold well through that period with my Easter estimates being very conservative and Monster Hunter taking over well there. Mid April through until August there were shortages of Switch last year so I’d expect Switch to beat those hardware numbers.

Hype for Pokemon Snap is strong for the end of April.
There was an expected slow May and early June and that’s fine. We need to switch off for a bit.
However Rune Factory 5 steps into that gap alongside Miitopia.

Mario Golf in late June after post-E3 hype settles.
Monster Hunter Stories 2 in July.
Zelda: Skyward Sword in July.

Possibly a slower August and September focused on indies as people start to hold out for new hardware or buy older titles for birthdays and Christmas, and that’s ok. Supply would be tight with old hardware so they can slow burn through that inventory and then discount after new model releases.

October new model. 15% better performance over better battery model for same battery life.
Helps loading times and hitting 30FPS spec slightly. Slight resolution bump for games with adaptive resolution.
Possible OLED screen with higher brightness, better blacks and more colour/lighting accuracy.

4K 60FPS compatible dock so Switch to solve the 4K TV issue.

All similar to the Xbox One vs Xbox One S upgrade.

Things look bright for Nintendo and they shouldn’t crash too far from the peak during 2022.

2023 will be a quiet year, but they can then launch the Nvidia Ampere 8nm model during late 2023 or early 2024 (probably March 2024) as a new system that supports new games. Or supports 60FPS, higher resolutions and Nvidia DLSS low latency AI upscaling for 4K with old games.
The DLSS will take major patches and effort and only work with bigger games using certain engines, but the rest should be easier updates.

So there’s good potential roadmaps and the Switch brand should stay strong for a long time.

when are Nintendo's annual updated numbers supposed to release?

@heavenmercenary01 May 6.

Out of general curiosity, why do you use the date that the numbers are published rather than when they are through? What I mean is you say April 10, which is when the numbers for the week ending March 27 came out. Just Wondering