Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

RolStoppable said:
Nautilus said:

First of all, I really dont believe the price of the basic model, which is the one that will really count, is going to be that expensive.I think we are seeing a 300 price tag here.And there are rumors to back this up, as Laura Kate(I think it was her and I think thats her name), the one that has been leaking stuff lately, has said that the basic model would be 300 and the "premium" model would be 400.I assume premium here comes with more acessories and maybe a game or two.

(...)

$300 and $400 are rumored?

*shakes head in disbelief*

If that turns out to be true, then Nintendo has seriously messed up. Probably because they felt they had to make concessions to third parties, so they packed in more power than they should have. And if it's that powerful, then battery life is going to be really bad as well. Killing their own platform for a chance to get games that won't sell their hardware. So stupid. So sad.

Here found it.They speak about price at around 6:30(was wrong about being Kate that said it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsKf2XlbRXI

It should be noted that the news is "old" and might be more innacurate than rumours normally is.I also find this article that says it could be 300 dollars, but its more of a speculation than a rumor:

http://www.techradar.com/news/nintendo-nx-price

There is still alo9t to be revealed about the Switch.If they give enough things to warrant that price, I cant see why it couldnt sell.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

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it probably will.

The 3DS, which wasn't that impressive in itself (although I like mine) may end up crossing the 70 million mark. It wouldn't be THAT impressive for the next partially handheld Nintendo device to retain the 3DS fanbase and then when you add in those interested in the home console aspect....

 

I think the strongest reason it may end up with quite a large userbase is going to be the game library. People in the past at times who aren't big Nintendo fans seem to be torn- do they buy the handheld OR the home console? in some cases it was literally a decision of buying one seperate game library vs another. And the confusion and decision making I think would cause people to go with neither. It can be daunting, the idea of having to buy two systems to get access to a lot of great big N games

with a unified consistent game release schedule one should expect this system to sell well.

Also price point wise 300$ (or even over) would be perfectly fine, this is a 2-1 device. People spend 700$ on new phones. Be realistic here folks. Adjusted speaking a lot of the older consoles would be like 500$.



archbrix said:
It's far too early to realistically make a prediction as bold as that because we don't have nearly enough information yet.

But to keep with the spirit of this thread, I'll try one: NS will pass WiiU's LTD install base before the end of 2017.

Kiiiya!



I agree with this post and it's karate.



Chinese food for breakfast

 

I think it will be closer to 100M than 50M with the potential to smash 100M.

-Nintendo still has something up their sleeve.
-I think the NES Mini will have a similar effect as Pokemon Go/Mario Run
-If the dock is just a fan and HDMI cable, then that's +$20 to have a console available in each room/friend's house/grandma's house
-Forcing/encouraging the use of local multiplayer on 3rd parties
-DS @ $150, Wii @ $200 (exc Wii Sports). $350 for NS sounds reasonable and doable.
-The DS acted as an advertisement for Wii software. Nintendo understands how important it is to get people to try their games. The NS is a walking advertisement and 'demo station' like the DS with the bonus that instead of taking turns, it's instant multiplayer which leads on to...
-Download play. You get to play the multiplayer part of a game you don't own (yet). There's no reason why you couldn't have access to a 'local' friend's game library while connected, no different than passing a cartridge over. Go one step further and allow people to trade, permanently or on a temp basis.
-I don't see siblings sharing the console for long. Like the DS, I think they'll demand one each. After a few price cuts, if the right software is there then Mum and Dad will want one too.
-It has the 'party' console thing going for it. It might collect dust most of the year but again, with the right software it will always be out at X-mas/birthdays.
-The potential of the 'fitness/exercise' genre is still untapped and ignored, the NS is the console most suited to tap into it.
edit -Game price. Possibly half in some cases of what a new release costs elsewhere.

The NS reveal and reception doesn't seem or feel anything like the 'wow' reaction the Wii got.
It has a similar 'hmmm?' reaction/feel as the DS.

How does a system with the third party support of the DS alongside doubled first party output not beat 3DS at a minimum?



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

JRPGfan said:
Nautilus said:

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.

Now that is a good point :)

Without Sony doing a new handheld, the intire market basically just goes to Nintendo.

That alone is probably worth 14m or so, ontop of the 60m or so 3DS sales there are.

I know the real number will probably be abit smaller than that, but thats potentially 70-75m right there alone from the handheld side of things.

I bet alot of people that own a Wii U also have either a 3DS or Vita, so its probably not going to be much higher than that.

 

Thats the stuff that makes me think maybe if Nintendo does well with the Switch it could reach upwards of those levels (70m+).

Its hard to tell though, and some people here seem really pessimistic about it, while others are very optimisic.

I hope nintendo does do well though.

 

I will say this though.... handheld market is typically more price sensitive than the home console markets.

Alot of this hinges on Nintendo selling the Switch at a reasonable price. 

I have over 40 games for my Vita and PS TV. As uncomfortable as it might be, the Vita still fits in my coat pocket. There's no chance the NS fits in anything smaller than my backpack. I have absolutely no interest in the Switch.

You probably shouldn't make assumptions about Vita owners. If we wanted a Nintendo handheld, we would have alos bought a 3DS wouldn't we?



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Tagging for future bumps. I don't think it will cross 30 million mark. It will be fun in two years to visit.



bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

THANK YOU!!!!

Some people on the internet seem to think that soccer mums, aunties, grandparents etc will be begging Nintendo to be able to buy the Switch like what happened with the Wii. But the Wii was extremely affordable as it was essentially an up-clocked Gamecube with no expensive large LCD/OLED portable 720P screen. Just because a reveal has X million views in Y amount of days does not correlate to day one or even lifetime sales.

It might be a mega success, it might be an utter failure. You can never really tell. The Dreamcast broke US launch records at the time and that console barely broke the 10 million unit barrier AND it had great third party support.



archbrix said:
It's far too early to realistically make a prediction as bold as that because we don't have nearly enough information yet.

But to keep with the spirit of this thread, I'll try one: NS will pass WiiU's LTD install base before the end of 2017.

You never change.  ; )

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4671116



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

This.  I think it would be suicide for Nintendo to not put in a touchscreen, but that hasn't stopped them from making some bad decisions before.  I still think it will end up having one, cause even Nintendo has to know they can kiss casuals goodbye if it doesn't have one.  The biggest thing that will hurt them is they are trying to break into the tablet market, one that already has a clear winner.  And people who prefer to game on tablets also like them for their myriad of non-gaming uses, something the NS won't have.  And with the weaker HW, core gamers won't be interested in it. 

Of course, one of the largest factors is 3rd party support.  I think a lot of devs are going to be taking a wait and see approach to the NS.  If NS sells well, they will probably start supporting it.  However, if it doesn't, it'll be dropped rather quickly.  It doesn't help things that the NS is probably ~1/3 the power of a PS4, meaning devs are going to have to figure out how much they have to trim things back to get their games to run at least decently on the thing.

Nintendo HAS to price this thing for $249, with $199 being the sweet spot.  If they think they can price it at $299-$399, they got some heartache coming their way.



Guitarguy said:
bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

THANK YOU!!!!

Some people on the internet seem to think that soccer mums, aunties, grandparents etc will be begging Nintendo to be able to buy the Switch like what happened with the Wii. But the Wii was extremely affordable as it was essentially an up-clocked Gamecube with no expensive large LCD/OLED portable 720P screen. Just because a reveal has X million views in Y amount of days does not correlate to day one or even lifetime sales.

It might be a mega success, it might be an utter failure. You can never really tell. The Dreamcast broke US launch records at the time and that console barely broke the 10 million unit barrier AND it had great third party support.

F*ck the Wii

The 'casuals' loved this too and it smashed Wii's sales



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!