Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Nautilus said:
Soundwave said:

I don't see it happening.

Nintendo's portables are struggling to sell even 15 million a year now, that's just a cold hard fact. Life in the tablet/smartphone world is not so easy for Nintendo.

The other thing is NS doesn't really offer a new way to play. It's the same games but you can just play them outside the house now. That's not anything new, the Wii was something different and legitimately aimed at an audience (a huge one) that no one was making any games for.

This is basically just a better version of the Wii U ... look at those threads on this board about a Wii U redesign ... people wanted a sleeker tablet, maybe the oppurtunity to integrate the chip into the tablet ... well I mean, voila ... there's your NS. 

Also the 3DS is struggling to get to 60 million even with pricing in the $129.99 range for several years now, every Nintendo franchise just about, etc. I don't think it you added TV dock mode to the 3DS it would magically sell another 40 million units. NS will probably have to be $250 or more for a while, it's way bigger than a 3DS, and has some battery limitations. 

Barring a software breakthrough like a new IP such as Pokemon coming out of nowhere and driving hardware sales, I think NS will do OK. Better than the GameCube and certainly Wii U, but lower than 3DS. Lots of factors to play out but I'd say 40-50 million is more realistic, which isn't bad. No one would call the Super NES a failure. If it's lower than 40 million, then Nintendo screwed up or the market for tablets just cannot be stopped. Whether or not it can run Android apps will have a big impact on how it sells too, with Android apps they can sell more because it can double as a real tablet. Without that they are going to have a much more uphill climb. 

Well, as I said and many others here, there is still much to learn and I still think Nintendo is holding many interesting things about the Switch behind the curtain.But since the Wii, people grew accustomed to the idea that unless Nintendo comes up with a strange fun new way to play and its not a handheld, its going to fail(or not be as successful).I think you dont need to look no further than the PS4.For all te talk about power and all, compared to a high end PC, PS4 is nothing incredible.It plays games normally, has a normal controller, and even have a paywall for multiplayer, which I find ridiculous.But it succeded.Why?Because of a string of oportunities and right decisions.I think the same can be applied to Nintendo.Having a much more atractive lineup of games than the other two, if it makes the right decisions, and be active on getting deals, on marketing and such, i dont see why it dosent stand a chance at being very successful.

Nintendo is not Sony. Sony has a (well deserved) reputation with the "dude bros/jock gamer" crowd, Nintendo has a very poor reputation with that crowd. 

Plus Sony worked their *ass* off to make sure the Playstation 3 recovered and finished very strong. Nintendo just let the Wii U die on a whimper. 

There is still a market for a high end home game console, but for a portable? Eh. That's going to be a tougher sell in this day and age where kids have tablets from very young ages. 



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Like Ive said before, I would be disappointed if it does less than 30M. Hope it does well.



Calling numbers now it is difficult, but with a solid lineup, I belive 50 millons is not out of the question... Beyond that... It has to be a perfect storm tbh.



Menx64

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Nautilus said:

First of all, I really dont believe the price of the basic model, which is the one that will really count, is going to be that expensive.I think we are seeing a 300 price tag here.And there are rumors to back this up, as Laura Kate(I think it was her and I think thats her name), the one that has been leaking stuff lately, has said that the basic model would be 300 and the "premium" model would be 400.I assume premium here comes with more acessories and maybe a game or two.

(...)

$300 and $400 are rumored?

*shakes head in disbelief*

If that turns out to be true, then Nintendo has seriously messed up. Probably because they felt they had to make concessions to third parties, so they packed in more power than they should have. And if it's that powerful, then battery life is going to be really bad as well. Killing their own platform for a chance to get games that won't sell their hardware. So stupid. So sad.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

It really cant go above 300$. Anything more than that its going to be a very hard sell.



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Nautilus said:
JRPGfan said:

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.

Now that is a good point :)

Without Sony doing a new handheld, the intire market basically just goes to Nintendo.

That alone is probably worth 14m or so, ontop of the 60m or so 3DS sales there are.

I know the real number will probably be abit smaller than that, but thats potentially 70-75m right there alone from the handheld side of things.

I bet alot of people that own a Wii U also have either a 3DS or Vita, so its probably not going to be much higher than that.

 

Thats the stuff that makes me think maybe if Nintendo does well with the Switch it could reach upwards of those levels (70m+).

Its hard to tell though, and some people here seem really pessimistic about it, while others are very optimisic.

I hope nintendo does do well though.

 

I will say this though.... handheld market is typically more price sensitive than the home console markets.

Alot of this hinges on Nintendo selling the Switch at a reasonable price. 



KLXVER said:
It really cant go above 300$. Anything more than that its going to be a very hard sell.

If its gonna do the numbers the OP wants, it needs that 249$ price point.

Even 299$ is abit to high, that puts it in the same range as the Slim models for sony / ms.

For people that just want a home console, and dont value the handheld aspect, equal price could mean lost sales.


Not to mention a device marketed mostly as a handheld..... priced at 299$ is more than most handhelds in the past have had, and succeded.



Soundwave said:
Nautilus said:

Well, as I said and many others here, there is still much to learn and I still think Nintendo is holding many interesting things about the Switch behind the curtain.But since the Wii, people grew accustomed to the idea that unless Nintendo comes up with a strange fun new way to play and its not a handheld, its going to fail(or not be as successful).I think you dont need to look no further than the PS4.For all te talk about power and all, compared to a high end PC, PS4 is nothing incredible.It plays games normally, has a normal controller, and even have a paywall for multiplayer, which I find ridiculous.But it succeded.Why?Because of a string of oportunities and right decisions.I think the same can be applied to Nintendo.Having a much more atractive lineup of games than the other two, if it makes the right decisions, and be active on getting deals, on marketing and such, i dont see why it dosent stand a chance at being very successful.

Nintendo is not Sony. Sony has a (well deserved) reputation with the "dude bros/jock gamer" crowd, Nintendo has a very poor reputation with that crowd. 

Plus Sony worked their *ass* off to make sure the Playstation 3 recovered and finished very strong. Nintendo just let the Wii U die on a whimper. 

There is still a market for a high end home game console, but for a portable? Eh. That's going to be a tougher sell in this day and age where kids have tablets from very young ages. 

And I agree with you.To be quite honest, I think Nintendo took a lesson or two from Sony.i mean, as many people said, the trailer seemed very "Sony", and Sony knows how to sell their image.That is why their marketing on this will be so important, and why I think the mobile, films and theme parks will play a large role in making this successful.They need to work on their image.For that, they first need to make the Nintendo brand strong and more recognizable as a gaming company with normal people again(not more hardcore gamers like us) so that they get on board, getting an installed base will atract the companies to make games for Switch.getting more games and hopefully the big games, will atract gamers to it.It is kinda of a snowball effect.That is why the first year is so important.I wont say that will happen, Nintendo will have to work real hard for it, but the chance is certainly there.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

JRPGfan said:
KLXVER said:
It really cant go above 300$. Anything more than that its going to be a very hard sell.

If its gonna do the numbers the OP wants, it needs that 249$ price point.

Even 299$ is abit to high, that puts it in the same range as the Slim models for sony / ms.

For people that just want a home console, and dont value the handheld aspect, equal price could mean lost sales.


Not to mention a device marketed mostly as a handheld..... priced at 299$ is more than most handhelds in the past have had, and succeded.

Yeah, and I think thats the big reason why Nintendo says its mainly a home console. 249$ would be great, but I think Nintendo wants to make good money on each console sold. Thats why I worry it might be 300-350$.



That would surprise me. 

First, I think a lot of adamant Nintendo fans overvalue many of Nintendo's IP.  We saw with the Wii U that Mario & Company are not going to turn a home console into a hit property on their own.  Pokemon might become the exception to that but, on the other hand, casuals might have had their fill with Pokemon GO.  

Second, we have to think about the baseline of the Switch regarding dedicated Nintendo fans.  It's not handheld + home console by any means.  Many of those handhelds and home consoles belonged to the same households and I would wager that a fair number of households owned multiple handheld units.  However, we're not going to see many households with multiple Switch(es?  I'm starting to hate this name).  

That means, for Nintendo to reach those numbers, that they're going to have to win over new customers, something they've been failing at for awhile.

And what's going to win those new customers?  As a home console, the Switch probably won't have the best graphics or the best resolution.  It probably won't have the quality and quantity of third-party support enjoyed by the competitors.  It will have Pokemon coming from the handheld side but, honestly, that's about the only handheld property that will make a mass market difference in the west.

On that front, I don't see it putting much of a dent in the popularity of the PS4+XO.  I don't think it's going to drag many people away from those ecosystems.

As a handheld, things are somewhat better, mostly because there is no current gen competition.  That flip side there is that I'm not so sure people really want a large dedicated gaming tablet.  Is it going to replace the tablets people already carry around with them?  Are parents going to let kids stuff it into their backpacks and take it to school with them?  Decreased convenience compared to previous Nintendo handhelds is a layer of competition it will have to deal with.

Eh.  That's a lot of words.  I'll put it more simply:

  • Nintendo is going to have trouble winning new customers.
  • PS4/XO are going to be more popular for people primarily looking for a home console solution.
  • As a handheld the Switch is less accessible than the DS-line and that will hurt it.
  • I feel like the whole endeavor is riding on Pokemon.

Basically, I think it will do okay.  Existing Nintendo fans will buy it.  It has Pokemon and Zelda might rise to new heights as a franchise.  I just don't see this hardware design growing the customer base by a large amount.  If the Switch is going to be a "smash hit" then it's going to need several new IP that blow up big and draw in people for whom Nintendo's traditional properties don't really do much.