Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

It's far too early to realistically make a prediction as bold as that because we don't have nearly enough information yet.

But to keep with the spirit of this thread, I'll try one: NS will pass WiiU's LTD install base before the end of 2017.



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The NS is an interesting device and I'm sure I will get one. For now I don't think it will sell as well as 3DS, so much less than 100M. The hardware seems unremarkable.  We live in a time where mobile screens are everywhere, and people are used to getting mobile software for cheap or free, so I am curious to see how well Nintendo can sell full retail price for a tablet.

However there are still so many unknown details including actual power, battery life, game library. As always I think the reason to buy Nintendo is for their software.



My 8th gen collection

I'd be surprised by that.

The Wii exploded because of the casuals. That casuals got it because of the "concept" of motion control and motion control games.

The NS "concept" doesn't pick up the casuals at all. You aren't going to go around with a really small screen and go "hey lets crowd around and play bowling".

With it being bigger than "pocket size" and mobile game picking up - I'd be surprised if it does as well as the 3ds. Specially since the price is probably going to be bigger than the 3ds.



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RolStoppable said:
You need more paragraphs. Might add mini-headlines for each point to make it clear which paragraphs belong to which point.

All three points somehow go back to first party support and I think it's premature to call that a win already. All of Nintendo's software output going to one platform is an improvement, but at the same time the effect is going to be diminished because development times and required manpower for each project will go up to different degrees.

More importantly though, all those games won't mean much if Nintendo pumps out games that don't attract a broader audience. One of the usual fallacies is in your post, "future looks bright because of 3D Mario" or something like that. 3D Mario has never brought in a broader audience, so that's not going to be the solution. But the reason we have seen that game and not something else is because the preview trailer was tailor-made for the forum population. In that sense, Nintendo has made yet another good decision, but the truly important things have yet to be announced, making the prospects of Switch major speculation.

Thanks for the feedback.My first time making a post this big, so I certainly still need to get better hang of it.

Regarding Nintendo software output, not every game needs to be at the level of a Breath of the Wild title.Nintendo could very well make smaller games like Captain Toad sprinkled here and there, to either fill the space betwenn the big titles or to try new ideas without having to waste resources and manpower in something that could potentially backfire, like Starfox Zero.Splatoon is a clear example of that.Smaller in budget, completed roughly in a year, but it maintains the quality Nintendo is known for.

And the part about the new Mario 3D, I should have explained better.Its more of an statement of that there is still great things to come outside of the launch lineup(i dont believe the Mario game will be ready for launch) to help further convince people that support will not simply drop.Of course that Mario alone is not enough to show that.Certainly nintendo will announce games,before the system is out, that will launch launching in about a 2 year window after the initial launch.Mario is simply the one game from them that Im fairly sure its not going to be in the launch window or anywhere near(Im assuming holiday 2017 is the earliest it could launch), hence the example.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

I don't see it happening.

Nintendo's portables are struggling to sell even 15 million a year now, that's just a cold hard fact. Life in the tablet/smartphone world is not so easy for Nintendo.

The other thing is NS doesn't really offer a new way to play. It's the same games but you can just play them outside the house now. That's not anything new, the Wii was something different and legitimately aimed at an audience (a huge one) that no one was making any games for.

This is basically just a better version of the Wii U ... look at those threads on this board about a Wii U redesign ... people wanted a sleeker tablet, maybe the oppurtunity to integrate the chip into the tablet ... well I mean, voila ... there's your NS. 

Also the 3DS is struggling to get to 60 million even with pricing in the $129.99 range for several years now, every Nintendo franchise just about, etc. I don't think it you added TV dock mode to the 3DS it would magically sell another 40 million units. NS will probably have to be $250 or more for a while, it's way bigger than a 3DS, and has some battery limitations. 

Barring a software breakthrough like a new IP such as Pokemon coming out of nowhere and driving hardware sales, I think NS will do OK. Better than the GameCube and certainly Wii U, but lower than 3DS. Lots of factors to play out but I'd say 40-50 million is more realistic, which isn't bad. No one would call the Super NES a failure. If it's lower than 40 million, then Nintendo screwed up or the market for tablets just cannot be stopped. Whether or not it can run Android apps will have a big impact on how it sells too, with Android apps they can sell more because it can double as a real tablet. Without that they are going to have a much more uphill climb. 



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JRPGfan said:

Holy Wall of Text....

Im not sure how you got from those points you make to 100m sold though.

My take:
1) themeparks/movies/mobile games effect wont be that big.
2) third party is looking to be much the same as the Wii U level was.
3) Yes getting strong sales early makes helps get 3rd party on board.
4) Even though the Switch trailer was good, its too early to say it will have a good 1st year.
5) Wii U failed to sell because of more than just bad 1st year and games at start.
6) Dena is a unknown factor... not sure how big a impact a better OS makes on Nintendo sales.

 

If Nintendo plays everything perfectly I could see them doing 70-80m or so.

I dont think Switch ever reaches 100m.

To your point number 5) I know there were more reasons to the Wii U failure, but if I were to list them all, the text would be bigger.And this point in particular was more revelant to the point I am trying to make.

And another thing that I should have mentioned in the text, is that if Nintendo plays their cards right, they could easily convince the combined instaoll base of the 3DS+ Vita to the Switch, since as a handheld it is very impressive and should get as much support as those devices got.I mean, Nintendo could screw up with baterry life, but Im giving them the benefit of the doubt here.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

bunchanumbers said:
It won't beat 3DS. It might crack 40m. Even that might be lucky. Trying to convince people that a 720p tablet is worth $399 (rumored) will be the hardest sell Nintendo ever does. It won't have access to ios or android. If you look at the reveal video it doesn't show any functionality outside of video games. And according to some here, it won't even have a touchscreen and you will be required to use the controller nubs to navigate the OS.

So why would the average consumer buy a 720p tablet with no touchscreen at such a high price?

First of all, I really dont believe the price of the basic model, which is the one that will really count, is going to be that expensive.I think we are seeing a 300 price tag here.And there are rumors to back this up, as Laura Kate(I think it was her and I think thats her name), the one that has been leaking stuff lately, has said that the basic model would be 300 and the "premium" model would be 400.I assume premium here comes with more acessories and maybe a game or two.

And do you really think it wont have apps or other functionalitys, like amazon, netflix youtube and stuff likfe that?I mean, if even the Wii U had them, then Switch will have them at least.As for the touchscreen, that could go either way, but again, there are rumors claiming that there is, by the same person I mentioned.

In the end, itys all a prediction, a guess.And if it wasnt a bold one, it would be exactly a prediction right?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

archbrix said:
It's far too early to realistically make a prediction as bold as that because we don't have nearly enough information yet.

But to keep with the spirit of this thread, I'll try one: NS will pass WiiU's LTD install base before the end of 2017.

Well yes, but it wouldnt be fun otherwise!



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Asedebck said:

35 million at best. Its pretty save to say that.
The Nvidia Tegra k1 and even the x1 (which isnt evend designed for mobile usage) both are already was inferior to the market leading ships made by Apple, Samsung and Snapdragon. Just check those benchmarks.

So EVEN if the Switch concept will work, Android and Apple will adopt very very soon and will deliver similar solutions (controller addons) to their smartphones and tablets. So people will be able to play skyrim on an iPhone as well (third party obviosly will also port those games to that huge install bases when they are doing a arm port for the switch anyway and its beeing succesfull).

So in the end people will just use their phones which are often as capable as the switch. In some years even WAY more capable.
Only reason to get the switch will be nintendos first party games. Only reason to get the wii u was that as well. We all know how that turned out.

 

I predict 25 mio units sold Lifetime.

The problem with the smartphone userbase is a very small percentage are willing to pay for games, let alone premium $60 games. Not every game is Minecraft, and with game budgets increasing it will be really hard to see AAA games on smartphones anytime soon.

It's also very arbitrary of you to ignore the Wii, another console with only Nintendo first party games. Heck, so many people complaining about the NS being a handheld device, we should compare it with the 3DS, which has fantastic 3rd party support, not Wii U.



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Soundwave said:

I don't see it happening.

Nintendo's portables are struggling to sell even 15 million a year now, that's just a cold hard fact. Life in the tablet/smartphone world is not so easy for Nintendo.

The other thing is NS doesn't really offer a new way to play. It's the same games but you can just play them outside the house now. That's not anything new, the Wii was something different and legitimately aimed at an audience (a huge one) that no one was making any games for.

This is basically just a better version of the Wii U ... look at those threads on this board about a Wii U redesign ... people wanted a sleeker tablet, maybe the oppurtunity to integrate the chip into the tablet ... well I mean, voila ... there's your NS. 

Also the 3DS is struggling to get to 60 million even with pricing in the $129.99 range for several years now, every Nintendo franchise just about, etc. I don't think it you added TV dock mode to the 3DS it would magically sell another 40 million units. NS will probably have to be $250 or more for a while, it's way bigger than a 3DS, and has some battery limitations. 

Barring a software breakthrough like a new IP such as Pokemon coming out of nowhere and driving hardware sales, I think NS will do OK. Better than the GameCube and certainly Wii U, but lower than 3DS. Lots of factors to play out but I'd say 40-50 million is more realistic, which isn't bad. No one would call the Super NES a failure. If it's lower than 40 million, then Nintendo screwed up or the market for tablets just cannot be stopped. Whether or not it can run Android apps will have a big impact on how it sells too, with Android apps they can sell more because it can double as a real tablet. Without that they are going to have a much more uphill climb. 

Well, as I said and many others here, there is still much to learn and I still think Nintendo is holding many interesting things about the Switch behind the curtain.But since the Wii, people grew accustomed to the idea that unless Nintendo comes up with a strange fun new way to play and its not a handheld, its going to fail(or not be as successful).I think you dont need to look no further than the PS4.For all te talk about power and all, compared to a high end PC, PS4 is nothing incredible.It plays games normally, has a normal controller, and even have a paywall for multiplayer, which I find ridiculous.But it succeded.Why?Because of a string of oportunities and right decisions.I think the same can be applied to Nintendo.Having a much more atractive lineup of games than the other two, if it makes the right decisions, and be active on getting deals, on marketing and such, i dont see why it dosent stand a chance at being very successful.



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1