I have to admit, I was really hyped by the switch reveal. I think it will be really successful at launch and immediately following. However, upon review, I think sales will ultimately slow and it will fail in the long run. All the functions and different ways of playing seem impressive, however, none of them seem great. Here are my thoughts, let me know if anyone disagrees.
1. Portable. This device seems bulky for a purely moblie device. Can't be popped in a pocket, and battery life is probably not great. I'd rate it as a mediocre mobile gaming option. The 3ds is much better.
2. Portable screen with joy-con controllers. Let's be real here, nobody is going to want to cramp around a 5-8 inch screen with a friend. This is not a realistic way to play. Also, either the joystick or face buttons will be centered rather on than at the edge. This is made worse by how small the joy-cons are. This is a non starter.
3. Home console. This is what it was made for and my biggest concern. The device will almost certainly be underpowered compared to Xbox or PS4. Especially with the almost certainly lower compacity internal storage and cartridge relative to blue ray. This despite the fact that there is nothing unique that we have seen about playing this way like the Wii or Wii U had. So as a console it will be inferior to the competition.
For a multi function device to be successful, it has to do one thing really great. Think the original iPhone. It was mediocre phone, and an oversized iPod, but it was the greatest mobile internet device anyone had ever seen. The Nintendo Switch so far does not seem to do any one thing greater than the competition.
Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million