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Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

I have to admit, I was really hyped by the switch reveal.  I think it will be really successful at launch and immediately following.  However, upon review, I think sales will ultimately slow and it will fail in the long run.  All the functions and different ways of playing seem impressive, however, none of them seem great.  Here are my thoughts, let me know if anyone disagrees.

1.  Portable.  This device seems bulky for a purely moblie device.  Can't be popped in a pocket, and battery life is probably not great.  I'd rate it as a mediocre mobile gaming option.  The 3ds is much better.

2.  Portable screen with joy-con controllers.  Let's be real here, nobody is going to want to cramp around a 5-8 inch screen with a friend.  This is not a realistic way to play.  Also, either the joystick or face buttons will be centered rather on than at the edge.  This is made worse by how small the joy-cons are.  This is a non starter.

3. Home console.  This is what it was made for and my biggest concern.  The device will almost certainly be underpowered compared to Xbox or PS4.  Especially with the almost certainly lower compacity internal storage and cartridge relative to blue ray.  This despite the fact that there is nothing unique that we have seen about playing this way like the Wii or Wii U had.  So as a console it will be inferior to the competition.

For a multi function device to be successful, it has to do one thing really great.  Think the original iPhone.  It was mediocre phone, and an oversized iPod, but it was the greatest mobile internet device anyone had ever seen.  The Nintendo Switch so far does not seem to do any one thing greater than the competition.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

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I'm not inclined to fully agree with your assessments here.

I feel it doesn't the portable part better than the competition. I don't think it's too big, and I'm sure the battery life with be tolerable.

The portable screen with joy cons might not be a cool thing for you and your friends, but it's huge thing to me, the way it's shown working on the plane in the trailer.

I'll be using that shit all the time.

And regarding it's home console potential. Nobody gives a flying fuck whether it's underpowered compared to the competition. It playes Mario Kart and Splatoon, and none of the others do.
And the cartridge storage is almost a non-issue when stuff like Breath of the Wild and Skyrim are shown to be able to fit on there.

So just to be fair, I think you're raiding some interesting points, but you may be reading a little too much of your own preferences into what others would think about this.



Podings said:
I'm not inclined to fully agree with your assessments here.

I feel it doesn't the portable part better than the competition. I don't think it's too big, and I'm sure the battery life with be tolerable.

The portable screen with joy cons might not be a cool thing for you and your friends, but it's huge thing to me, the way it's shown working on the plane in the trailer.

I'll be using that shit all the time.

And regarding it's home console potential. Nobody gives a flying fuck whether it's underpowered compared to the competition. It playes Mario Kart and Splatoon, and none of the others do.
And the cartridge storage is almost a non-issue when stuff like Breath of the Wild and Skyrim are shown to be able to fit on there.

So just to be fair, I think you're raiding some interesting points, but you may be reading a little too much of your own preferences into what others would think about this.

I do to an extent.  The fact that it may be underpowerd (fingers crossed that the dock adds power) means very little 3rd party support.  Very little 3rd party supports relegates it into 'companion device' territory for the average gamer even if Nintendo decides to go for a unified library.  I think for the NS to succeed based on what we know of it and what can logically assume of it, Nintendo needs to regain its lost casual/children's audience that was stolen from them by smartphones and tablets.  They might be able to do it if they leverage their smartphone games well enough but I have my doubts on that front.



I do agree that the Switch is probably too big to be the killer mobile and home console hybrid that some seem to be expecting it to be. People like devices that fit in their pockets. This thing will be huge and unruly with the joy-cons attached, and lets face it: how many people do you see walking around with a tablet instead of using their phone for all their on-the-go needs? I may as well add on: have you guys ever pushed a mobile sized battery with actual games? Not just Candy Crush, but I mean a game that actually makes the processor and GPU work? Battery life is going to suck donkey testicles. That guy playing it while his dog ran around would probably be lucky to have enough battery power to play it until he wanted to go home.

I imagine this is why Nintendo has stated it is meant to be more of a home console than a mobile device though. It is better to try to direct away from the fact that it will fall short as a mobile device early so that they can come back and say "well we told you it was meant to be primarily a home console".

Also, am I the only one that thinks the Switch is going to get seriously hot? Mobile devices aren't generally known for their ability to manage heat well under heavy load.



 

Podings said:

And regarding it's home console potential. Nobody gives a flying fuck whether it's underpowered compared to the competition. It playes Mario Kart and Splatoon, and none of the others do.
And the cartridge storage is almost a non-issue when stuff like Breath of the Wild and Skyrim are shown to be able to fit on there.

The Wii U and GCN also had Mario Kart.  People and developers care.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

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Eh, this is pretty much exactly correct imho, and it doesn't please me at all.

For all the people saying 'power doesn't matter' and 'it's the only place to play Mario/Smash/Kart/etc', well ... yeah. You're describing the WiiU.

WiiU :

The only place to play great Nintendo 1st party gems.
Not very powerful.
Not really built for online MP, more designed for local MP.
Not very affordable considering the performance (lots of BoM$ tied to the tablet thing)

Switch seems to be the EXACT same recipe, only with something quasi-portable. It's not as portable as a cell phone, 3DS, or even a standard tablet such as an iPad, but it can work out of the house. Battery power is a question mark, but TBH I don't think it matters much one way or the other.

Price will determine its fate. $299 = dead. $249 = mediocre. $199 = possible sleeper hit.



1. A lot of people who take portable electronics around like a tablet or gaming device tend to have a backpack or something like that.

2. That's more of a feature, not an ideal way to play games.

3. Power isn't the issue. Nintendo can't win going head to head with Sony and MS. They need to appeal to audiences that want something Sony and MS aren't doing. The edge Switch may have is being the best portable gaming device and Nintendo 1st party.



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Arkaign said:
Eh, this is pretty much exactly correct imho, and it doesn't please me at all.

For all the people saying 'power doesn't matter' and 'it's the only place to play Mario/Smash/Kart/etc', well ... yeah. You're describing the WiiU.

WiiU :

The only place to play great Nintendo 1st party gems.
Not very powerful.
Not really built for online MP, more designed for local MP.
Not very affordable considering the performance (lots of BoM$ tied to the tablet thing)

Switch seems to be the EXACT same recipe, only with something quasi-portable. It's not as portable as a cell phone, 3DS, or even a standard tablet such as an iPad, but it can work out of the house. Battery power is a question mark, but TBH I don't think it matters much one way or the other.

Price will determine its fate. $299 = dead. $249 = mediocre. $199 = possible sleeper hit.

To me, the base model almost has to be $250 to have any shot if the dock doesn't add enough power to put it on-par with the base PS4/XB1.  If the dock ends up adding power, then I could raise the price to $300 for a base model without any pack-in games.



As a "home console", it's going to be popular with existing Nintendo fans and probably not much more. That is, unless they've managed to make it nearly as strong as the competition and still relatively cheap. There are plenty of people in the west, especially North America, who really don't care about handheld gaming. That's not a group that this will likely win over.

The success of the Switch hinges on the people who still want a handheld device--and don't mind that this is nothing like the 3DS physically.

Beyond that, the real saving grace for the Switch is that it will (we assume) have Nintendo handheld and home console franchises, which together will cover any drought. 3DS and Wii U owners will probably buy it for that alone, as will some who would be on the fence buying a Nintendo product for either catalog individually.

The question is, will it create a meaningful amount of new customers for Nintendo who either come from another ecosystem or are new to gaming? I'm not convinced yet. A lot is riding on their first year release schedule of games.



Tablet is not that portable, and kids use a lot nowadays.
A tablet with mario kart, minecraft, splatoon would do much better than other tablets in the market, not?
So, here is the point, i think.