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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - NX 2017 Lineup Predictions

Wyrdness said:

Such a weak argument, it can't be a system seller because it doesn't sell like MK8? We'll pretend you didn't even type this, a system seller doesn't have to sell more then a userbase seller to have more impact.

Are you new to gaming? Early adoters have been around for decades and yes they do buy consoles based off hype or their preference for the company it's laughable you're trying to suggest it isn't possible especially when on this very site the have been people pissed off because NX is coming and they bought the platform years back for the new Zelda. The arguments going on right now because some people still believe the's much more on the way for Wii U.

According to the global data on this site the end of January is whe the platform dropped to a baseline of 20k and stayed there falling in line with my stance, NSMBU wasn't even in the charting either so the bulk of sales had already happened and it's not hard to explain NSMBU's sales it was the only notable game for early adopters to really buy. NSMB2 also launched the period when the 3DS had its price cut which was a catalyst in spiking sales, the baseline returned to normal shortly afterward and increased heavily when 3DL and MK7 arrived.

A number of shovelware games did it on the Wii.

 

Of course you'd want to to pretend I didn't say that since it proves you completely wrong. Sales are directly correlated with a game's appeal, obviously since why would 5 million people buy a game they don't like, so 3D World clearly does not have significantly more appeal than NSMBU, nor SM3DL over NSMB2, the numbers prove this, should be the end of this argument right there really.

People buy games along with the console at launch, and they specifically bought NSMBU more than anything, a fact that holds a lot more weight than some petty anecdotal forum go-er complaints.

 "it was the only notable game for early adopters to really buy." So it's undeniably a system seller in the literal sense just like every other major Wii U game, glad we're finally clear on that.

"NSMB2 also launched the period when the 3DS had its price cut which was a catalyst in spiking sales, the baseline returned to normal shortly afterward and increased heavily when 3DL and MK7 arrived." lol now I know you have no idea what you're talking about. Check their release dates. 

What recent shovelware has done this?



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As expected this thread went downhill pretty quick.


My guesses/hopes for the release-window (March-June)

Legend of Zelda - as a safe bet there is
Pikmin 4 - Very likely
Smash port - Believe it will happen
3d Mario or Retro studios game - one of these will come, the other is a holiday release
Luigis Mansion - yup
Third party AAA multiplat - This is a hope more than anything.
F-zero - I actually think this will happen.




Splatoon 1.5 or Splatoon 2 will be there for NX in 2017 ... that I would bet on.

Splatoon is the only franchise I've seen in Japan that's been able to increase Nintendo's *console* sales for an extended period of time since Wii Sports/Fit, which are now going on 8-10 years ago.

There's no way Nintendo is not going to make Splatoon on NX a huge, huge priority specifically for the Japanese market.

All the Mario/Zelda in the world doesn't impress Japan anymore for consoles. Splatoon is on the verge of breaking out there like Monster Hunter on the PSP.

Because the Wii U got its legs cut off and Japanese people can't even buy Splatoon anymore in large quantities due to Wii U inventory being bled dry, they have to give people a way to enjoy Splatoon on NX. Remake, sequel, semi-sequel, whatever. It will be on NX and probably very early in the life cycle. Bet on it.



Einsam_Delphin said:

 

Of course you'd want to to pretend I didn't say that since it proves you completely wrong. Sales are directly correlated with a game's appeal, obviously since why would 5 million people buy a game they don't like, so 3D World clearly does not have significantly more appeal than NSMBU, nor SM3DL over NSMB2, the numbers prove this, should be the end of this argument right there really.

People buy games along with the console at launch, and they specifically bought NSMBU more than anything, a fact that holds a lot more weight than some petty anecdotal forum go-er complaints.

 "it was the only notable game for early adopters to really buy." So it's undeniably a system seller in the literal sense just like every other major Wii U game, glad we're finally clear on that.

"NSMB2 also launched the period when the 3DS had its price cut which was a catalyst in spiking sales, the baseline returned to normal shortly afterward and increased heavily when 3DL and MK7 arrived." lol now I know you have no idea what you're talking about. Check their release dates. 

What recent shovelware has done this?

We'll pretend you didn't say it because it's a weak response that is not only null and void to the whole argument it makes no sense in any context. A games appeal doesn't equate to it being a system seller, it's been explained to you already previously already in NSMBU being a decarative title that sells to the userbase the's no need to even repeat myself. As for the period 3DL and MK7 I misread the dates and got mixed up my mistake, 3DS began selling at 400k upon 3DL's release, when MK7 release a few weeks after it spiked to 700k on the game's release and 1m a week with MH's release before coming to the baseline of 300k, the price cut had raised the baseline to 150k after the spike in sales it caused prior to this. In comparison the week NSMB2 released (28th July) 3DS the 3DS had a spike of 100k units above the then baseline for one week before returning to the baseline of 300k. Funny enough both 3DL and MK7 have outsold NSMB2 by a margin that is bigger than what NSMBU is over 3DW which under the logic you're trying to push backs those games as system sellers.

Yeah people buy games at launch early adopters would have bought the Wii U with NL alone or even nothing because that group were always planning to purchase the platform right at the start anticipating their first party favourites, a game being their only choice doesn't make the game a system seller.



zorg1000 said:

What baseline are you talking about? NPD & Media Create had Wii U down YOY in January 2014 while Vgchartz has a statistical tie globally, so what baseline are you referring to?

You are wrong, the debate started with someone stating that 3D Mario was a bigger system seller than 2D Mario. The burden of proof is on the 3D Mario side which have yet to provide any data to support the theory.

WiiU baseline after January 2013 according to VGC was 20kish as March arrives, baseline after January 2014 was 40kish by the end of February according to VGC. Because you keep harping on about 3D Mario the's another example in my previous post on the 3DS where the platform spiked higher than on NSMB2's release and outsold the latter game, now move on.



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Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

What baseline are you talking about? NPD & Media Create had Wii U down YOY in January 2014 while Vgchartz has a statistical tie globally, so what baseline are you referring to?

You are wrong, the debate started with someone stating that 3D Mario was a bigger system seller than 2D Mario. The burden of proof is on the 3D Mario side which have yet to provide any data to support the theory.

WiiU baseline after January 2013 according to VGC was 20kish as March arrives, baseline after January 2014 was 40kish by the end of February according to VGC. Because you keep harping on about 3D Mario the's another example in my previous post on the 3DS where the platform spiked higher than on NSMB2's release and outsold the latter game, now move on.

lol the baseline in late February was higher in 2014 than 2013, you dont say????? Maybe, just maybe that is due to Tropical Freeze which released in late February 2014.

Yes, 3D Land spiked 3DS sales higher, there is this special time of the year called the holidays where people buy gifts for one another, 3D Land released during this time of the year while NSMB2 released in the middle of summer, the time of year where video game sales are the lowest.

here are the official sales from Nintendo

NSMBU-5.19 million, 3D World-4.82 million

NSMB2-10.25 million, 3D Land-10.73 million

2D total-15.44 million, 3D Total-15.55 million

The series are identical, and this is what i said earlier, the 2 series are interchangeable, Wii U could have launched with 3D World and had NSMBU release the following year and there would be basically no difference. Same with the 3DS releases.

Einsam_Delphin & I have never said that 2D Mario is bigger, we are just saying that 3D Mario is not this huge system seller comparitively that Miyamotoo was saying earlier in this thread.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

lol the baseline in late February was higher in 2014 than 2013, you dont say????? Maybe, just maybe that is due to Tropical Freeze which released in late February 2014.

Yes, 3D Land spiked 3DS sales higher, there is this special time of the year called the holidays where people buy gifts for one another, 3D Land released during this time of the year while NSMB2 released in the middle of summer, the time of year where video game sales are the lowest.

here are the official sales from Nintendo

NSMBU-5.19 million, 3D World-4.82 million

NSMB2-10.25 million, 3D Land-10.73 million

2D total-15.44 million, 3D Total-15.55 million

The series are identical, and this is what i said earlier, the 2 series are interchangeable, Wii U could have launched with 3D World and had NSMBU release the following year and there would be basically no difference. Same with the 3DS releases.

Einsam_Delphin & I have never said that 2D Mario is bigger, we are just saying that 3D Mario is not this huge system seller comparitively that Miyamotoo was saying earlier in this thread.

That makes a lot more sense as an argument although the post I responded was suggesting sales numbers to highlight one as bigger than the other although I agree with Miyamotoo with the view that 2D Mario is more a seller to the userbase than the a seller of a system. One reason I say this is if you look at the NSMB games released on systems that were already flying in the middle of their life like the DS and Wii it would hit near 30m, when Nintendo actually tried them as system sellers they would sell well but not really change the fortune of the platforms they're on, that was done more by other games.



Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

lol the baseline in late February was higher in 2014 than 2013, you dont say????? Maybe, just maybe that is due to Tropical Freeze which released in late February 2014.

Yes, 3D Land spiked 3DS sales higher, there is this special time of the year called the holidays where people buy gifts for one another, 3D Land released during this time of the year while NSMB2 released in the middle of summer, the time of year where video game sales are the lowest.

here are the official sales from Nintendo

NSMBU-5.19 million, 3D World-4.82 million

NSMB2-10.25 million, 3D Land-10.73 million

2D total-15.44 million, 3D Total-15.55 million

The series are identical, and this is what i said earlier, the 2 series are interchangeable, Wii U could have launched with 3D World and had NSMBU release the following year and there would be basically no difference. Same with the 3DS releases.

Einsam_Delphin & I have never said that 2D Mario is bigger, we are just saying that 3D Mario is not this huge system seller comparitively that Miyamotoo was saying earlier in this thread.

That makes a lot more sense as an argument although the post I responded was suggesting sales numbers to highlight one as bigger than the other although I agree with Miyamotoo with the view that 2D Mario is more a seller to the userbase than the a seller of a system. One reason I say this is if you look at the NSMB games released on systems that were already flying in the middle of their life like the DS and Wii it would hit near 30m, when Nintendo actually tried them as system sellers they would sell well but not really change the fortune of the platforms they're on, that was done more by other games.

Well no game has changed Wii U fortunes, like I pointed out earlier every fiscal year has been right around 3 million give or take a few 100k. 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Zelda remasters, Hyrule Warriors, etc. The only thing these games were able to do was keep Wii U at its 3m/year baseline. You cant blame 2D Mario for something no other game has been able to do either.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

Well no game has changed Wii U fortunes, like I pointed out earlier every fiscal year has been right around 3 million give or take a few 100k. 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Zelda remasters, Hyrule Warriors, etc. The only thing these games were able to do was keep Wii U at its 3m/year baseline. You cant blame 2D Mario for something no other game has been able to do either.

I don't blame NSMBU per say as the are other factors I just see it as more of a userbase seller then a system seller which is why I question its performance had the not been early adopters. Imo one of the other games should have been present for launch and NSMBU should have come out mid gen instead of launching it, I also class 2D Donkey Kong as the same along with other 2D platfomers.

People may like them but I don't think people buy platforms for them in todays market.



Wyrdness said:
zorg1000 said:

Well no game has changed Wii U fortunes, like I pointed out earlier every fiscal year has been right around 3 million give or take a few 100k. 3D Mario, Donkey Kong, Mario Kart, Smash Bros, Splatoon, Mario Maker, Zelda remasters, Hyrule Warriors, etc. The only thing these games were able to do was keep Wii U at its 3m/year baseline. You cant blame 2D Mario for something no other game has been able to do either.

I don't blame NSMBU per say as the are other factors I just see it as more of a userbase seller then a system seller which is why I question its performance had the not been early adopters. Imo one of the other games should have been present for launch and NSMBU should have come out mid gen instead of launching it, I also class 2D Donkey Kong as the same along with other 2D platfomers.

People may like them but I don't think people buy platforms for them in todays market.

its fine to have that opinion, Einsam and I were just asking for data to back up the statement.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.