Last year Microsoft outmaneuvered Sony on Black Friday with much better bargains since Sony refused to cut price even on Black Friday of all days. This year, Sony has cut price and will be more competitive against Microsoft for the holiday season. Quite frankly, they have to be since they are bone dry on high level exclusives, so incentives need to be given to purchase the PS4 in anticipation for next year. This year Microsoft has had one hell of a showing featuring the New Xbox Exprience,Backward compatibility Halo 5 and the timed exclusivity of new Tomb Raider to Xbox platforms (having fallout mods as a timed console-exclusive to their platform doesnt hurt either). Sony might have the multiplat bundles but Microsoft has the exclusive bundles. The games Sony cannot provide. I think that when people look for either console it will be a close battle but the exclusives will seal the deal.
(one counter point)
For hardened COD fans from last gen who are making the jump, COD is going to lack single player, so being that the PS4 comes with a bundle this will help, as well as having early content. Outside of that the XBox still gets the game and the dlc shortly after. A small victory.
Prediction: Xbox One will take the November Black Friday 2015.