You've just had to cherry pick from your own post to help make your point, you use LBP as your primary example when it must have been clear I was particularly alluding to this gen. As for the other examples that you have thrown in, how did they sell on Nintendo's console? Rayman, Marvel, where do they feature in Nintendo's top selling titles? What about the PS4 games in the OP? Calling Minecraft 'kiddie' is a stretch at best and the other two were still reviewed significantly lower the the flagship Nintendo titles thus far this gen. That alone could be enough reason to explain why they haven't sold that well. It's not proof that there isn't a market for kiddie games on Sony consoles and it's certainly not proof that there's no market for Nintendo games on Sony consoles.
I picked a few titles at random from that list. The only game (afaik) on that list that got mediocre reviews is knack. Those games that did show up on Wii U/3DS (like Lego Marvel) probably didn't do so well since they have to compete against similar games. Rayman vs Mario? I think most would buy Mario. And why can't we talk about sales from last gen? An install base of 80m+ for both PS3 and X360, and not a single Nintendo like game in the Top 10 best selling lists (except Kinect Sports). The best selling none-bundled Nintendo like games sold 5-7m (LBP and Minecraft). That's pretty good numbers, and NSMB would probably sell something similar, or more, on PS4 and X1. But what about Kirby? What about Donkey Kong? ANimal Crossing? Kid Icarus?
Another significant issue with attempting to draw parallel's between these titles that have been arbitrarily designated 'kiddie' is that Nintendo's kiddie titles are first party, whereas the majority of Sony's are not. Look for the best rated and top selling games on any console and first party games are always heavily represented.
LBP is 1st party, isn't it? And top rated as well.
The most common complaint you hear about Nintendo games from non Nintendo console owners is, "I wish it was on console X, it's a great game but I'm not buying a system for 1-2 great games." Now while that's no guarantee of sales it raises the possibility that there exists an untapped market for some Nintendo games amongst the Nintendo non-faithful.
And I argue that that crowed is either just talking the talk but won't walk the walk if given the chance. And remember, they are the minority of tall the gamers. Do you think the people getting CoD would give a shit about Mario?
They would make a killing because given the install base they have always made a killing. Mario, Zelda, Animal Crossing, Smash Bros, Pokemon, Mario Kart. Increase the install base and you will increase the sales, by how much is anyone's guess. Increase the install base by 4-5 fold and what do you think will happen? It's not going to increase sales 4-5 fold but it's bound to have a big impact.
I'm arguing that the increase in sales wouldn't be that much, and I base that on previously released games. And let's remember that Nintendo have more games than those heavy hitters. What about the smaller games?
In the end it's all supposition, but I'm not quite sure why you believe yours to be so much more reliable than mine or anyone else's. We've never actually seen how well a Mario 'kiddie' game could sell on a non-Nintendo and while we can attempt to draw parallels and analogies, it's naive to think that it allows us to draw any solid conclusions on either side of the debate.
No, I don't have any solid conclusions =) Just some speculation that I've tried to base in real numbers.
Anyway, no more debating for me tonight, past bedtime :)
I'm on Twitter @DanneSandin!
Furthermore, I think VGChartz should add a "Like"-button.