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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 to be down YOY in 2015

Ryng on 16 February 2015
bananaking21 said:
i can see it being down in the first half, maybe up until august. but i think when the price cut hits, then uncharted and all the next gen only games, it will rise. this year there are a lot of must have games.

So, you think that in September PS4 will sell more than in 2014?

FUCK NO!!! Even if we don't know how will happen this September, i seriusly don't see PS4 to sell 538,000 in the NPD and some like 1,500,000 globally...



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GTAexpert on 16 February 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
bananaking21 said:
i can see it being down in the first half, maybe up until august. but i think when the price cut hits, then uncharted and all the next gen only games, it will rise. this year there are a lot of must have games.

So, you think that in September PS4 will sell more than in 2014?

FUCK NO!!! Even if we don't know how will happen this September, i seriusly don't see PS4 to sell 538,000 in the NPD and some like 1,500,000 globally...

If it gets a big price cut it can sell more than that globally.



small44 on 16 February 2015

Xb1 is not massively up yoy so i don't see how xbox1 has effect on ps4 this year.
It's true some people use Netflix, Amazon instant video on their console but it's not the main reason why people buy a console.

Ps4 can be down yoy but not because of the reason you mentionned



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

Ryng on 16 February 2015
GTAexpert said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
bananaking21 said:
i can see it being down in the first half, maybe up until august. but i think when the price cut hits, then uncharted and all the next gen only games, it will rise. this year there are a lot of must have games.

So, you think that in September PS4 will sell more than in 2014?

FUCK NO!!! Even if we don't know how will happen this September, i seriusly don't see PS4 to sell 538,000 in the NPD and some like 1,500,000 globally...

If it gets a big price cut it can sell more than that globally.

Honestly, even in the Price drop month, +500K are seriusly bold to predict.

PS4 sell less than 50,000 a week in the US, for a total of <200,000 in a NPD, and it sell less than 150,000 globally, for a total of <600,000.

Now, with a pricedrop i see possible 400K in a NPD, and +1M globally, but the last PS4 september was just crazy... i seriusly doubt that will happen again.



GTAexpert on 16 February 2015
Ryng_Tolu said:
GTAexpert said:
Ryng_Tolu said:
bananaking21 said:
i can see it being down in the first half, maybe up until august. but i think when the price cut hits, then uncharted and all the next gen only games, it will rise. this year there are a lot of must have games.

So, you think that in September PS4 will sell more than in 2014?

FUCK NO!!! Even if we don't know how will happen this September, i seriusly don't see PS4 to sell 538,000 in the NPD and some like 1,500,000 globally...

If it gets a big price cut it can sell more than that globally.

Honestly, even in the Price drop month, +500K are seriusly bold to predict.

PS4 sell less than 50,000 a week in the US, for a total of <200,000 in a NPD, and it sell less than 150,000 globally, for a total of <600,000.

Now, with a pricedrop i see possible 400K in a NPD, and +1M globally, but the last PS4 september was just crazy... i seriusly doubt that will happen again.

I was talking about global sales. PS4 is very expensive in many of its biggest markets and when it gets a price cut there it will sell more than 1.5 million.



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teigaga on 16 February 2015

Are we not gonna wait for the games arrive?

I feel like a lot of people only look at things from a very short sighted perspective, people have seen January's sales and suddenly its all doom.

I'd be very surprised if PS4 was down YOY. Certain months (jan/Feb/Sept) sure, but overall. Nah! the loss in sales from North America due to X1 competition will easily be compensated by the rest of world.



Intrinsic on 16 February 2015
POE said:
Can Sony afford a price cut? If they can then it will be up yoy if not then theres no chance.

Yes they can. As of March last year it was. revealed that sony were making a profit on selling the PS4. That means they could have been making each one for as little as $380. With GDDR5 and processor prices coming down the PS4 can have a BOM of under $350 by now. And with whatever revisions they make it could be down to $300 by august. Its going to be easy to drop the price of the PS4 to $299 if they want to.

What I see hapoenning is a price drop to $299 around E3 or GDC in august and then $299 bundles with uncharted 4 in November and December.

Funny thing is, if they wait till august to drop the price, it would be the longest time a PlayStation console has been on the market without a price drop. 



SWORDF1SH on 16 February 2015

Pricecut - No

No pricecut - Yes



Intrinsic on 16 February 2015
kitler53 said:
xbox is still a performing poor world wide, us =/= world no matter how much you want it to. comparing against jan when there was a post launch run on ps4s is a silly comparison. saying there is no interest in consoles on the heals of a record breaking first year also just silly.

ps4 will be down in winter/spring due to last year being soo high. games like the order and bloodborne will ensure the YoY comparison isn't too bad. when the price drop comes you'll see any deficit quickly wiped away over the holidays.

context people. how are people so blind to situational context??

I honestly find this shocking myself. its almost as if people have just thrown away all logic just to make for an interesting what if scenario. There are so many obvious reasons and evidence as to why the sales of the PS4 are where they are now. 



Materia-Blade on 16 February 2015

so far, it's down 20% and when late february numbers come, the huge difference in japan will increase the gap a lot. people saying a pricecut is all it takes to keep flat aren't considering the variables. If the pricecut is late in the year, it will have to make up for many months of lower than 2014 sales and the cut itself won't necessarily make sales increase a lot.