Forums - Sony Discussion - What do yo think will be the hardware specifications of PS5 if it arrives arround 2019-2020?

Intrinsic said:

The OG XB1 APU had a chip size (with all of its 1.2TF GPU) of 368mm sq. The 16nm XB1X (with a 6TF GPU) has a chip size of 360mm sq. Its not only smaller than the OG XB1 but its drawing less power and generating less heat. The reason MS went with a more expensive cooling solution is cause they wanted to go for that super slim form factor. Hence its even smaller than the OG XB1 and the PS4pro.

Although I agree with you. I disagree with this particular statement.



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Intrinsic said:

 Not all TFs are the same. Basically, 6TF in whatever GPU architecture used in 2020 will be better than the 6TF found in the polaris architecture today. And this is something else a lot of posters here aren't taking into consideration.

And it annoys me to no end.

Intrinsic said:

Lol no..... consoles wouldn't channel their investment more towards an SSD when making a premium console. The bulk of whatever is spent would be on a better GPU and a very slightly better CPU and more Ram.

You are starting to sound more like me as time goes on. - When did that happen?

CrazyGPU said:

I will add that also, in doing what you are explaining, they can perfectly run 1/4 th of the cores and mantain compatibility with PS4 if the hardware is close enough. As they did with PS4 pro. I think this time it will be a brand new architecture.

Or. They could simply not and use some extra performance to... I dunno. Let games run better? Xbox does it.

If the GPU ISA has deviated significantly from the GCN chip in the Playstation 4, they can use the power of abstraction to negate any compatibility issues.



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Pemalite said:

Although I agree with you. I disagree with this particular statement.




Intrinsic said:

Lol no..... consoles wouldn't channel their investment more towards an SSD when making a premium console. The bulk of whatever is spent would be on a better GPU and a very slightly better CPU and more Ram.

You are starting to sound more like me as time goes on. - When did that happen?


Ooops, yes you are right. Didn't feel right when i typed it either..... I think what i was thinking is that its more efficient, and not that it draws less power.

Lol@sounding like you..... maybe we always sounded alike but this is just the first time we are on the same side of a discussion.



Errorist76 said:
withdreday said:

 

But it proves that most PS4 owners don't deem it worth it to fork over 400 bucks to upgrade. New owners are still going with the base model. The Pro, unless it sees a price drop to $349 or even $299, sales will stay stagnant compared to the more powerful One X.

 

The Pro has been selling for 349,- for months now. And looking at Amazon it is indeed outselling the X1X at the moment. I can assure you during 2018 the amount of PS4Pros will rise far above the 5:1 ratio it had last year. 

The base price is still $400 and that's the price that it is in most stores right now, including Amazon. The only reason the sales ticked up was because of the price drop for the holidays. 

If it's a chose between $400 console and the $299 1 TB version, most new buyers will go for the latter every time.

Pemalite said:
fatslob-:O said:

That may have used to be true in the past but now I'm not so sure anymore since there's nothing stopping their recent momentum. (industry on the verge of transitioning to EUV, Rambus reuniting with JEDEC(!) and higher demand than ever for higher performance DRAM) Before memory standards used to have a much lower turnover rate but currently their bringing out new memory standards faster than they did in the past. GDDR3 standard wasn't developed by JEDEC since they adopted it from ATi Technologies at the time, the specifications for the GDDR4 standard was released in 2006 by JEDEC, GDDR5 standard was released in 2007, GDDR5X standard was released in 2016 and the GDDR6 standard released a year after that. Consequently the original HBM standard was adopted in 2013, HBM 2 standard was finalized in 2016 but HBM 3 standard could get finalized by as early as the end of this year ... 

The final DDR5 standard is about to be published this year too ... 

Well. GDDR5X protocol and interface training sequence are similar to those of the GDDR5, but adopts the 16n prefetch that GDDR6 is adopting.
We could say it is an extension of GDDR5 rather than something new, the name of the DRAM backs that up.

It mostly existed because GDDR6 was so late to the table, we needed an interim solution.

I'm just going to take a wait-and-see approach on GDDR7, if we get it before 2020 then great.

Errorist76 said:

That’s highly unrealistic to assume, just for the fact the new CPU will be much faster for sure. GPU will also be at least Vega based. The X1X doesn’t even use Vega features - the Pro does though.

It will use AMD's next gen GPU architecture and not Vega which is a GPU architecture that released in 2017.

And I highly doubt they will even choose Navi, but it really depends how long AMD flogs that horse.

withdreday said:

 

But it proves that most PS4 owners don't deem it worth it to fork over 400 bucks to upgrade. New owners are still going with the base model. The Pro, unless it sees a price drop to $349 or even $299, sales will stay stagnant compared to the more powerful One X.

The Pro isn't really offering a new experience.

withdreday said:

And didn't even know about GDDR6. In that case, I can't wait. As I stated though, don't expect to even hear about a PS5 until the PS4 hits 100 million which is easily doable at the end of this holiday season.

Once the Playstation 4 hits market saturation and sales rate declines... Then Sony's incentive to release it's next-gen platform increases.
Microsoft and Nintendo also apply some additional competitive pressure.

Throwing out arbitrary numbers/claims like: "New PS5 when PS4 hits 100 mill sold" isn't really something I can adhere to.

withdreday said:

Remember when people said the no console would ever sell 100m again because of stupid mobile phones and tablets (which turned out to just be just a huge fad btw)? Aah, those were the days...

I wasn't one of those people.

fatslob-:O said:

In terms of memory bandwidth, it's absolutely top notch and I don't wish for 4K, I wish for physically based dynamic global illumination ... (BW might become a severe bottleneck when doing ray traversal in ray tracing so I want this mitigated as soon as possible for next generation) 

Also the difference is much larger than 50 GB/s. The fastest HBM 2 memory module can let us achieve rates as high as 1.25 TB/s on a 4096-bit bus width while the maximum a GDDR6 standard memory module can achieve on a 512-bit bus width will net 1 TB/s. GDDR6 has a massive 20% BW deficit compared to the fastest HBM 2 memory module ... 

GDDR6 is cheaper though for it's given capacity, which is why it will be leveraged for next-gen.
Unless GDDR7 is ramped up before then, but I have my doubts.

With that in mind... If AMD drives home the memory controller, I am sure they could push the bandwidth, AMD and nVidia pushed GDDR5 to it's absolute limits, power consumption be damned even.

I'm not saying they'll launch right then. I'm just saying there's zero chance for it to be announced before the PS4 hits 100 million. It's sales suicide and it's pointless with the console at least being a year or 2 away.

And never said you were one of the silly ones saying that, but man was it hilarious watching them grasp for straws once the PS4 started selling like hotcakes. The most common excuse was "well, this is just the early adopters!" 74 million consoles later and they're nowhere to be found.

Classic.



Pemalite said: 
Intrinsic said:

 Not all TFs are the same. Basically, 6TF in whatever GPU architecture used in 2020 will be better than the 6TF found in the polaris architecture today. And this is something else a lot of posters here aren't taking into consideration.

And it annoys me to no end.

 

CrazyGPU said:

I will add that also, in doing what you are explaining, they can perfectly run 1/4 th of the cores and mantain compatibility with PS4 if the hardware is close enough. As they did with PS4 pro. I think this time it will be a brand new architecture.

Or. They could simply not and use some extra performance to... I dunno. Let games run better? Xbox does it.

If the GPU ISA has deviated significantly from the GCN chip in the Playstation 4, they can use the power of abstraction to negate any compatibility issues.

Just for clarifying with Intrinsic.

 In gaming when most people speaks about flops comparing gaming gpus, a flop is a 32 bit single precision floating point operation. And that´s now, 10 years ago and in the future, heheh. Teraflops doesn´t change, they are a measure, like meters, or grams. Hehehe yes, it´s annoying to think about changing Tf. Like Pemalite says. A teraflop is 1000 billons of flops operations. If you have to do 3,2 x 2,2. It is a flop operation. If you you have to do 3 x 2 is an integer operation. 

Most companies use Tf for marketing. Switch was marketed as a 1 Teraflops machine, but that was misguided, cause they were using 16 bit precision numbers for calculating the number of operations. While it is correct mathematically, if everybody compares 32 bit numbers, speaking about 16 bit performance without saying that they are using other bit chain is kind of cheating. 

When comparing Scientific computing or high performance computing (HPC). Computers consisting in hundred of thousands of cores, or even millons they usually talk about performance with double precision 64 bit operations.

 

Now on the other subject. Of course they can. Actually in the beggining they dissabled half ps4 GPU to mantain compatibility, but then they add ps4 pro mode, and recently supersampling for running games better in 1080p screens on the pro. So yes, they have plenty of choises if they have enough Tf. 



Intrinsic said:

Ooops, yes you are right. Didn't feel right when i typed it either..... I think what i was thinking is that its more efficient, and not that it draws less power.

Indeed it is more efficient.
Hence why the Xbox One X actually does consume less power than the base Xbox One in a multitude of scenarios. (I.E. Blu-ray playback, instant on, energy saving etc'.)

A large chunk of that is attributed to the much more efficient power supply, which means less energy is wasted.

withdreday said:

I'm not saying they'll launch right then. I'm just saying there's zero chance for it to be announced before the PS4 hits 100 million. It's sales suicide and it's pointless with the console at least being a year or 2 away.

Well. Let's wait and see.

withdreday said:

And never said you were one of the silly ones saying that, but man was it hilarious watching them grasp for straws once the PS4 started selling like hotcakes. The most common excuse was "well, this is just the early adopters!" 74 million consoles later and they're nowhere to be found.

Classic.


For me, I don't really care if a console sells 10 units of 10 million or 100 million. As long as it meets my needs/wants/desires. - Which thankfully usually often lines up with fairly healthy sales. (I.E. More consoles sold, more financial incentive for more games/features.)

I'm one of the "rare" few who isn't aligned with any particular console brand though.

CrazyGPU said:

 In gaming when most people speaks about flops comparing gaming gpus, a flop is a 32 bit single precision floating point operation. And that´s now, 10 years ago and in the future, heheh. Teraflops doesn´t change, they are a measure, like meters, or grams. Hehehe yes, it´s annoying to think about changing Tf. Like Pemalite says. A teraflop is 1000 billons of flops operations. If you have to do 3,2 x 2,2. It is a flop operation. If you you have to do 3 x 2 is an integer operation. 

For christ sake.

Teraflops is a theoretical number. It's calculated by clockrate * instructions per clock * pipes/cores.
It's often an un-achievable ceiling in the real world.

People need to stop abusing the flops. It's NOT the be-all, end-all.

CrazyGPU said:

Now on the other subject. Of course they can. Actually in the beggining they dissabled half ps4 GPU to mantain compatibility, but then they add ps4 pro mode, and recently supersampling for running games better in 1080p screens on the pro. So yes, they have plenty of choises if they have enough Tf. 

That sounds like allot of work for something so pointless. Just provide all the power all time, no need for silly modes if they abstract the hardware sufficiently.

CrazyGPU said:

Most companies use Tf for marketing. Switch was marketed as a 1 Teraflops machine, but that was misguided, cause they were using 16 bit precision numbers for calculating the number of operations. While it is correct mathematically, if everybody compares 32 bit numbers, speaking about 16 bit performance without saying that they are using other bit chain is kind of cheating.

It's because it is an ARM mobile part. Most non-x86 mobile devices emphasis 16-bit precision for performance and battery life reasons. Switch capitalizes on that.

People should always take the claims that any company makes about their hardware or their competitors hardware with a grain of salt, go to an unbiased source that has no financial incentive to stretch the truth instead.
Anandtech is a good outlet for that.



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12tf minimum, 2021, and there will be a slim, and maybe faster PS4 pro before then .



se7en7thre3 said:
12tf minimum, 2021, and there will be a slim, and maybe faster PS4 pro before then .

Slim for sure. More powerful?! Never.



PS will focus more on CPU this time around. Even with XB1X, they did everything they could to push Jaguar as much as possible, considering it may have to last 8 years or more due to their no more gens plan going forward. I would assume more money will be dedicated to the CPU, RAM, HDD/SSD, with less towards the GPU for PS5.

This makes me think PS5 will stick with 8, x86 cores, most likely Ryzen based, and also because PS4 has 8 cores, so dropping to 4 or 6 would seem like going backwards. 8 cores around 2020 won't seem like a big deal anyway.

I would assume the GPU ends up around 10TF. The XB1X can run some AAA at full 4k with 6TF, so 10TF would be more than enough for a base model, assuming PS5 Pro shows up at some point, and checkerboarding is still an option.

XB1X having 12GB of RAM leads me to believe PS5 will have a min of 16GB. This would probably require 4GB of dedicated separate OS RAM for future proofing, so 20GB total. A 20-24GB pool wouldn't be out of the question either.

As for storage they can't just stick with HDD due to load times, but how much solid state they can squeeze in the budget is really hard to say at this point in time, along with all the new storage tech that keeps popping up and the supply/pricing variations. With the system being fully 4k capable, 2TB of storage should be an absolute min.

If I were PS, I would guess XB "Two" wouldn't show up until 2021, so launching PS5 late 2020 would make sense. Make the system for around $500, and sell it for $499 late 2020. Then drop the price to $399 late 2021. This way if XB "Two" launches at $499, PS5 has a $100 price advantage just like Pro has. If XB tries to hit the magic $399 price point, it ends up the same price as PS5, so more than likely it's specs aren't much better either, so PS has little to worry about other than games.

PS5 using the success of the PS4 and getting an entire year lead makes the most sense to me. The only downside to this I could see, would be if XB decides to create a $500-$600 console, and sells it for around $399. PS really has no other option than to fight that with games or it's own subsidy at that point though, or launch a Pro model sooner than later.

While a traditional single console is the likely outcome, I also think it's possible to see a $399 PS5 and $599 Pro at launch. This way, XB "Two" at best could only end up on the cheaper end of the scale at $399 as well. Launching at $499 would not be good as PS5 would have a cheaper and more capable system surrounding it. Launching at $599 would make it much more niche like the XB1X is now, and would direct many XB customers towards the much cheaper XB1X at $299 at that time. A $299 XB1X isn't exactly good news for a $399 PS5 either, but if XB gamers prefer higher specs, PS5 would have that covered on both fronts.

The reason I can see this happening, is because I don't see PS4 Pro being able to play PS5 games, yet if the XB1X can play XB"Two" games, then PS would only have one console choice at $399, while XB would have two choices at $299 and $499. I could see this scenario being a bit of a problem for PS5 until the Pro released 2 or 3 years down the road. PS may have learned their PS3 lesson, but I think this would work considering they would have their affordable $399 version, so the $599 Pro model would be their 1/5th or possibly 2/5th sales over the gen again.

The other option is to launch the PS5 late 2019 with a two year head start, and follow up XB"Two" in 2021 with a stronger PS5 Pro in 2022.



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Errorist76 said:
se7en7thre3 said:
12tf minimum, 2021, and there will be a slim, and maybe faster PS4 pro before then .

Slim for sure. More powerful?! Never.

in the same vein as XB1s, so Im suggesting a pro slim would flirt with 5 tf.



se7en7thre3 said:
Errorist76 said:

Slim for sure. More powerful?! Never.

in the same vein as XB1s, so Im suggesting a pro slim would flirt with 5 tf.

Never really thought about that. With all of the scalability being implemented into the PSOS and development tools, they could definitly upclock the CPU and GPU in the Super Slim and the Pro Slim. Another new possibility enters the mix.



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