Forums - Sony Discussion - What do yo think will be the hardware specifications of PS5 if it arrives arround 2019-2020?

Dark_Feanor said:
That is the first time I see so many people underestimate the capabilities of a next generation console.

It seems you are getting the wrong lessons from Nintendo Switch so far. The Switch is a completely different class of product. It is not a direct competition for the high end consoles an PCs. It might not even be a competitor for tablets and smartphones, because of the lack of media capability hasn't affect its sales.

There is a market for high fidelity high performance graphics. Fortunately those consoles are so close to PCs that upgrades are almost trivial.

The PS4 and the Xone were built with 2011-2012 CPU and GPU, Pro and X with 2016s. Don't let the inflated gpu prices full you. There are room for a 12-15 Tflops machine costing $500 launching in 2020.

an 11 tflop 1080ti costs over $1000 right now and the prices are going up.



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KBG29 said:
SvennoJ said:

Hmm it's 4 years later now and I lost interest in 4K lol. What does it need for VR at a decent resolution is the question now :)
16GB ram will be plenty as those 4K textures won't be necessary.

Actually for VR we will want even higher resolution textures, because you can zoom in on everything. Muddy low res textures, will be very illusion breaking when the graphical fidelity and resolution is enhanced. 32GB of RAM is the absolute minimum the next gen consoles should have. 24GB for Games, and 8GB for the OS, Multitasking, Apps, Streaming, etc. should be good enough to make TV gaming look a bit prettier, and make a signifcant leap in VR. 

Eventually yes, but I don't think anything higher than 4K headsets will be viable for ps5, and spread over 110 degrees that compares to 720p in the center at the very most. Probably less as that likely won't be 4K per eye. Besides expecting next gen to render native 4K x 2 at minimum 60fps without any hitches is still a tall order. Memory speed will need to go up a lot as well to use 24GB effectively or those high res textures will just be a bottleneck.

Yet to future proof for a ps5 pro, 32GB would be better. Or perhaps 16GB for games, 8GB for the OS. That's still over 3 times more than games get now.



Dark_Feanor said:
That is the first time I see so many people underestimate the capabilities of a next generation console.

It seems you are getting the wrong lessons from Nintendo Switch so far. The Switch is a completely different class of product. It is not a direct competition for the high end consoles an PCs. It might not even be a competitor for tablets and smartphones, because of the lack of media capability hasn't affect its sales.

There is a market for high fidelity high performance graphics. Fortunately those consoles are so close to PCs that upgrades are almost trivial.

The PS4 and the Xone were built with 2011-2012 CPU and GPU, Pro and X with 2016s. Don't let the inflated gpu prices full you. There are room for a 12-15 Tflops machine costing $500 launching in 2020.

One thing one has to consider though...Even in 2-3 years not even 50% of people will own a 4K TV or will have the possibility to get one, additionally to their shiny new 4K console.

Are 12-15 Tflops really needed for a highly detailed 4K/30 performance?! 

I still think 10-12 seems possible for PS5, but higher Tflops would be more needed for VR than for 4K imho.



Pemalite said:
Trumpstyle said:

A 4 core cpu would just not be good enough for next-gen system especially with 1 core being taken by the OS. If you wondering why exactly 7 cores instead of 8 cores it's cause it will be cheaper to produce with 1 core disabled.

Quad core CPU's have taken the role of the old dual-cores in terms of performance.
I.E. AMD's Ryzen's low-end are Quad-Cores.
Intels i3 is now Quad-Cores.

So it goes without saying... Regardless of the amount of cores that is chosen (8-Jaguar cores were roughly comparable to an Intel i3 Dual Core), having CPU performance around that level is probably something we might expect.

globalisateur said:

SMT (2 threads by core) is not ideal for a console, apparently it's kind of random. I think it would make much more sense (and be less expensive anyways) for 8 cores, 8 threads. Also BC with PS4 would be much easier like this.

The Xbox 360 had SMT, but it did bring with it some caveats that I won't get into here.

In short though, SMT would not prevent backwards compatibility, but when leveraged right can allow you to extract more performance out of each core.

globalisateur said:

AMD produce their CPU by chunk of 4. So it would be 6 cores (with 2 disabled) or 8.

Not even a factor when we start talking about monolithic semi-custom SoC's.

Intrinsic said:

STORAGE: I believe the PS5 (and next Xbox) will finally jump to solid state drives. And of the M.2 variety. While the consoles will support PCIEx4 based nvMe drives by default (~2000Mb/s + reads) the consoles will come with a 1TB sata 3 based m.2 drive instead (~500Mb/s reads). Right now you can get a 512GB M.2 sata ssd for under $150.

Thats not what it would cost for sony and those prices will come down in the next 2/3yrs. Drives will be user upgradeable of course.

They will go with whatever is cheapest. - Even the Xbox One X isn't using the biggest, fastest mechanical disks and that was a "premium" console.

SSD's/m.2 drives still command a premium and will do so even in a few years from now.
Plus the demand for NAND is increasing, so costs could actually increase, especially if NAND fabs retool to start taking advantage of higher DRAM prices.

withdreday said:

They almost have to with the PS4 Pro being so under powered compared to the Xbox One X. The One X is even out selling the Pro now, so most current owners don't even see the upgrade as being worth it. I tend to believe most of the rumors that the PS4 Pro will become the baseline PS4 and drop $299 the PS5 will be the "premium" console.

The Xbox One X outselling the Pro is an inconsequential issue as the Pro isn't the bulk of Playstation sales anyway.

withdreday said:

As far as Ram, Maybe 16 Gigs of DDR5? Remember this thing has to be able to be priced at Sony's ideal price point of $399. I can't imagine that they want another PS3...

DDR5 isn't going to happen. JEDEC has only just finished demonstrating the DRAM and hasn't even finished ratifying the standard... And is thus probably still a few years away from a market release.
It does promise to double the bandwidth and density of DDR4, which means it's not going to be enough for next gen anyway unless you implement a stupidly wide bus.

It will be GDDR6, it will be what will offer the greatest benefits, higher capacities and good enough bandwidth/latency.
GDDR6 is currently ramping up production right now, so costs will be leveled out by the time 2020 hits.
 

 

But it proves that most PS4 owners don't deem it worth it to fork over 400 bucks to upgrade. New owners are still going with the base model. The Pro, unless it sees a price drop to $349 or even $299, sales will stay stagnant compared to the more powerful One X.

And didn't even know about GDDR6. In that case, I can't wait. As I stated though, don't expect to even hear about a PS5 until the PS4 hits 100 million which is easily doable at the end of this holiday season.

Remember when people said the no console would ever sell 100m again because of stupid mobile phones and tablets (which turned out to just be just a huge fad btw)? Aah, those were the days...



konnichiwa said:
BraLoD said:

PS4 is 4 years and 3 months old.

PS3 to PS4 took 7 years.

No it's not.

Well people were talking about PS4 in 2011 and day by day it is basically only 2 years from now that they announce ps5 if it is a similar generation.

Maybe late 2012 because of the Wii U, but 2011? I honestly don't remember it.



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withdreday said:
Pemalite said:

Quad core CPU's have taken the role of the old dual-cores in terms of performance.
I.E. AMD's Ryzen's low-end are Quad-Cores.
Intels i3 is now Quad-Cores.

So it goes without saying... Regardless of the amount of cores that is chosen (8-Jaguar cores were roughly comparable to an Intel i3 Dual Core), having CPU performance around that level is probably something we might expect.

The Xbox 360 had SMT, but it did bring with it some caveats that I won't get into here.

In short though, SMT would not prevent backwards compatibility, but when leveraged right can allow you to extract more performance out of each core.

Not even a factor when we start talking about monolithic semi-custom SoC's.

They will go with whatever is cheapest. - Even the Xbox One X isn't using the biggest, fastest mechanical disks and that was a "premium" console.

SSD's/m.2 drives still command a premium and will do so even in a few years from now.
Plus the demand for NAND is increasing, so costs could actually increase, especially if NAND fabs retool to start taking advantage of higher DRAM prices.

The Xbox One X outselling the Pro is an inconsequential issue as the Pro isn't the bulk of Playstation sales anyway.

DDR5 isn't going to happen. JEDEC has only just finished demonstrating the DRAM and hasn't even finished ratifying the standard... And is thus probably still a few years away from a market release.
It does promise to double the bandwidth and density of DDR4, which means it's not going to be enough for next gen anyway unless you implement a stupidly wide bus.

It will be GDDR6, it will be what will offer the greatest benefits, higher capacities and good enough bandwidth/latency.
GDDR6 is currently ramping up production right now, so costs will be leveled out by the time 2020 hits.
 

 

But it proves that most PS4 owners don't deem it worth it to fork over 400 bucks to upgrade. New owners are still going with the base model. The Pro, unless it sees a price drop to $349 or even $299, sales will stay stagnant compared to the more powerful One X.

 

The Pro has been selling for 349,- for months now. And looking at Amazon it is indeed outselling the X1X at the moment. I can assure you during 2018 the amount of PS4Pros will rise far above the 5:1 ratio it had last year. 



Bofferbrauer2 said:

While the DDR5 standard is supposed to be published this year, don't count on it for the next console. DDR5 is late, it was supposed to get finalised in 2016 already, with market release in 2020. In other words, they are 2 years late on that plan already, and from final specs to the released product there are always a couple of years ( due to how lithography works, that can't be shortened by more than a few months if they're lucky). Plus, any new standard is much more expensive than the established one, making them more unsuitable for consoles.

Finally, GDDR gets developed from DDR, and a GDDR standard deriving from DRR5 will not come before DDR5 is released because GDDR is basically DDR modified for high bandwith. Just have a look how long it took for GDDR6 to be developed from DDR4. While there can be an improved GDDR7 in the next years, that one would still be derived from DDR4, not 5 (just as GDDR2 and 3 are derived from DDR2 and GDDR4 and 5 are derived from DDR3)

In short, don't count on DDR5 before 2021 earliest and any GDDR derived from it for about 2023, and pricely viable for a console not before 2025.

Actually GDDR6 is going to release with hardware before DDR5 does ... (JEDEC also never intended for the final spec to release in 2016 either so there was no delay and we don't know if future GDDRX technologies will be derived from DDR again as JEDEC never mentioned similarities between GDDR6/DDR4) 

If a memory standard becomes available then you can bet you'll see it in products next year after that ... 



fatslob-:O said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

While the DDR5 standard is supposed to be published this year, don't count on it for the next console. DDR5 is late, it was supposed to get finalised in 2016 already, with market release in 2020. In other words, they are 2 years late on that plan already, and from final specs to the released product there are always a couple of years ( due to how lithography works, that can't be shortened by more than a few months if they're lucky). Plus, any new standard is much more expensive than the established one, making them more unsuitable for consoles.

Finally, GDDR gets developed from DDR, and a GDDR standard deriving from DRR5 will not come before DDR5 is released because GDDR is basically DDR modified for high bandwith. Just have a look how long it took for GDDR6 to be developed from DDR4. While there can be an improved GDDR7 in the next years, that one would still be derived from DDR4, not 5 (just as GDDR2 and 3 are derived from DDR2 and GDDR4 and 5 are derived from DDR3)

In short, don't count on DDR5 before 2021 earliest and any GDDR derived from it for about 2023, and pricely viable for a console not before 2025.

Actually GDDR6 is going to release with hardware before DDR5 does ... (JEDEC also never intended for the final spec to release in 2016 either so there was no delay and we don't know if future GDDRX technologies will be derived from DDR again as JEDEC never mentioned similarities between GDDR6/DDR4) 

If a memory standard becomes available then you can bet you'll see it in products next year after that ... 

I don't know if you understand german, but hey: https://www.golem.de/news/arbeitsspeicher-ddr5-naehert-sich-langsam-der-marktreife-1608-122737.html In the last paragraph they are talking about that JEDEC supposed to finalize DDR5 before the end of that year, so yes there is a 2 year delay. Availability was only expected for 2020, so if the same delay applies then commercial availability would not be before 2022.

Of course GDDR6 releases before DDR5. After all, GDDR6 is based upon DDR4, not DDR5. Any GDDR version that would be derived from DDR5 will not come out before 2023.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

I don't know if you understand german, but hey: https://www.golem.de/news/arbeitsspeicher-ddr5-naehert-sich-langsam-der-marktreife-1608-122737.html In the last paragraph they are talking about that JEDEC supposed to finalize DDR5 before the end of that year, so yes there is a 2 year delay. Availability was only expected for 2020, so if the same delay applies then commercial availability would not be before 2022.

Of course GDDR6 releases before DDR5. After all, GDDR6 is based upon DDR4, not DDR5. Any GDDR version that would be derived from DDR5 will not come out before 2023.

Are there any other sites reporting this ? Just because they would "like" to doesn't mean that they have "confirmed" or "anoounced" the finalization of the spec by the end of 2016 ... 



BraLoD said:
konnichiwa said:

Well people were talking about PS4 in 2011 and day by day it is basically only 2 years from now that they announce ps5 if it is a similar generation.

Maybe late 2012 because of the Wii U, but 2011? I honestly don't remember it.

I am so lazy to sum it all up.

Anyway 2011 had some articles popping up, the most credible one was about a potential PS4 plan that got leaked and that sony was looking into the possibility of a 2012 Q4 releases + having discussions about Potential PS4 production Facilities.

In 2012 the floodgates went open, and is btw a popular game trivia question. What was the project name for PS4?...dum dum dum.....Orbis!!!  That project name got leaked early 2012.