Forums - Sales Discussion - When will PS4 reach 10 million sold? - ioi comments on undertracking

ioi said:

On the subject of Sony's 10m announcement and adjustments and in an attempt to be fully transparent - until we can figure out where the "missing" 600k units have been sold then we obviously can't adjust the figures since they certainly aren't in the USA, Canada, Mexico and South America, UK, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Benelux, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, Russia, Australia, New Zealand or Japan in which our data is very accurate and lines up well with other data providers. Our estimates for the other regions (Middle East, Africa, Asia) are rough estimates based on trends seen with PS2 / PS3.

Our data for the regions we track as listed above for PS4 adds up to around 9.0m which should be accurate to +/- 100k. We estimate a further 140k in the Middle East and Africa and 290k in the remainder of Asia taking us to the 9.4m you can see on the homepage.

How many PS4 consoles do you think SCEE sold in Scandinavia?

And why don't you add numbers for all these countries if you have  "very accurate" numbers.



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You know, I have to say that I'm a little embarrassed by some users in this thread. VGC has never claimed to be 100% accurate, ioi has stated on multiple occasions that his methods are based on extrapolation and identifying trends, and now he comes into this thread to try and reason and be transparent (something he didn't need to do, but he's making us aware that he knows the problem and is working towards fixing it), with reasoning which makes sense, and all you guys can do are attack him for that? That's a little shameful. If you can't appreciate the way the site works or the site owner, in my opinion perhaps you need to find a new site to visit.


This is the way VGC has always done it. We know it isn't 100% accurate, but it gives us a vague idea. Also, for the regions which people actually seem to care about (Japan, US and Europe), we know that two of those three are almost perfect, so where's the issue here? I just appreciate getting the numbers, knowing they aren't completely accurate, rather than getting nothing at all. Maybe that's just me.



 

Here lies the dearly departed Nintendomination Thread.

Conegamer said:

You know, I have to say that I'm a little embarrassed by some users in this thread. VGC has never claimed to be 100% accurate, ioi has stated on multiple occasions that his methods are based on extrapolation and identifying trends, and now he comes into this thread to try and reason and be transparent (something he didn't need to do, but he's making us aware that he knows the problem and is working towards fixing it), with reasoning which makes sense, and all you guys can do are attack him for that? That's a little shameful. If you can't appreciate the way the site works or the site owner, in my opinion perhaps you need to find a new site to visit.


This is the way VGC has always done it. We know it isn't 100% accurate, but it gives us a vague idea. Also, for the regions which people actually seem to care about (Japan, US and Europe), we know that two of those three are almost perfect, so where's the issue here? I just appreciate getting the numbers, knowing they aren't completely accurate, rather than getting nothing at all. Maybe that's just me.


well said.

 

on a side note. AUS ebay.com.au has had a 20% off sale mid/late last month.  This probably resulted in about 10K PS4 sold.

There is another sale for dick smith  ebay store aus. Same deal PS4 @ $399 AUD with a coucher code.  ATM since the sale started about 4000 units sold:

http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/NEW-Sony-Playstation-4-Console-PS4-500GB-YG10068-/251564949960?pt=AU_Consoles&hash=item3a927081c8&_uhb=1

 

I know it is not much, but I am sure there are sales like that around the world in smaller regions like this, which would not fit a formula and it is easy to see why the ESTIMATES on this site can be out.



 

 

Conegamer said:

You know, I have to say that I'm a little embarrassed by some users in this thread. VGC has never claimed to be 100% accurate, ioi has stated on multiple occasions that his methods are based on extrapolation and identifying trends, and now he comes into this thread to try and reason and be transparent (something he didn't need to do, but he's making us aware that he knows the problem and is working towards fixing it), with reasoning which makes sense, and all you guys can do are attack him for that? That's a little shameful. If you can't appreciate the way the site works or the site owner, in my opinion perhaps you need to find a new site to visit.


This is the way VGC has always done it. We know it isn't 100% accurate, but it gives us a vague idea. Also, for the regions which people actually seem to care about (Japan, US and Europe), we know that two of those three are almost perfect, so where's the issue here? I just appreciate getting the numbers, knowing they aren't completely accurate, rather than getting nothing at all. Maybe that's just me.

Well, those two regions are only almost perfect because VGC uses other companies' data to report sales or to adjust them afterwards. Europe is the problem because VGC doesn't have any official numbers at steady intervals to make timely adjustments.

I honestly have nothing against ioi or the site, I find the forums excellent and enjoy being here, but without the forums and good, quality members, I would not be using this website at all. I appreciate an effort put into data collecting, but it seems to lack in reliability.

But, I was hugely disappointed to learn today than one of the metrics for sales extrapolation was the number of PSN/XBL accounts created across regions. That must be one of the leading causes of severe mistakes and miscalculations, as I already wrote earlier in this thread.



binary solo said:
Rab said:
Blood_Tears said:
It already sold 10 million "to consumers"....


I think Sony in the past has called stores their "consumers" if it suits them 

Evidence?


 I just remember them using that line in the PS3 days, and it was revealed later to be retailers , maybe that's why that tried to make it so "clear" what they ment this time



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overman1 said:
Rab said:
Blood_Tears said:
It already sold 10 million "to consumers"....


I think Sony in the past has called stores their "consumers" if it suits them 

Maybe you should pay attention to what he said. he clearly stated  that the Sony PS4 has sold 10 million consoles through to consumers. The he paused and continued "let me be clear, this isnt shipped or sold to retailers." " the Playstation 4 has 10 million units now sitting in peoples homes"

I really dont know how much clearer one can be with that statement. There is even a written statement on their site about this. 

Has Sony every lied about sales before? Hell no so why start now when they are very much in the lead and could have easy hit 10 million by september with Denstiny.  Why lie now?

Thanks for the clarification, I just remember them having this same line back with the PS3 when it wasn't doing too good, maybe that's why they are being so clear with what they ment 



loy310 said:
I agree with ioi, and if anyone takes this site seriously they should also. VGC need to find where to plug the hole so they can not only adjust the official numbers but so they can also adjust how they calculate sales for that part of the world.

Makes no sense for them to adjust the numbers while at the same time not adjust their formula for whichever region they are coming up short simply because they don't know where they are coming up short. They would just end up being off every week if they took such a blind approach.


Also makes no sense to have the numbers wrong on the chart on the front page, when its widley publisised at being 10M on every other gaming site. 

At least the total should be right for people visiting even if the break down is off for now till they can figure it out. 

Else any new people to the site will take one look and think, poor tracking and move on. 



Why not have 2 colors on the chart in a single bar? Have a background color that's much darker that reads official numbers and then have a lighter color in front that says numbers tracked so far.



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I'm sure PS4 is selling a lot better in India than VGC numbers make it seem, I mean I live in India and I know there is quite some PS4 momentum here despite its retail price of $667 and its individual games costing $67.



Conegamer said:

You know, I have to say that I'm a little embarrassed by some users in this thread. VGC has never claimed to be 100% accurate, ioi has stated on multiple occasions that his methods are based on extrapolation and identifying trends.
This is the way VGC has always done it. We know it isn't 100% accurate, but it gives us a vague idea. Also, for the regions which people actually seem to care about (Japan, US and Europe), we know that two of those three are almost perfect, so where's the issue here? I just appreciate getting the numbers, knowing they aren't completely accurate, rather than getting nothing at all. Maybe that's just me.

That's how I look at the vgcharts. Trends that show xbox is currently falling and PS4 staying high.



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