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The NFL Thread 2014: New England Patriots Win Super Bowl XLIX

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Who will win the Super Bowl?

Who cares? 41 36.61%
 
That AFC team. 29 25.89%
 
That NFC team. 5 4.46%
 
Hahaha, not the Packers! 25 22.32%
 
See Results. 9 8.04%
 
Total:109

ANNOUNCEMENT - Bracket Predictions Update

This year a new contest was added, the bracket predictions. Players had to predict the rankings of each division and the teams that would be present in each playoff round as well as the Super Bowl winner. The total of 59 entries for each of the 30 participants (five of them have incomplete brackets) was recorded here, so let's review how the season has played out so far.

AFC East: NE, BUF, MIA, NYJ
Who got it right: impertinence, MTZehvor, WiiStation360
Comment: A very predictable winner, but a lot of uncertainty surrounding the other three teams because all of them seemed mediocre at best. In the end Buffalo surprised most people, so only three people got the order right.

AFC North: PIT, CIN, BAL, CLE
Who got it right: BlowoverKing, Carl2291, Chris Hu, CityOfNoobs, Farsala, gergroy, ljigga, MTZehvor, NinjaBlade360, WiiStation360
Comment: A very predictable loser, but a lot of uncertainty surrounding the other three teams because all of them had the potential to reach the playoffs and win the division title. That ten people got this one right is quite a feat.

AFC South: IND, HOU, JAC, TEN
Who got it right: burninmylight, Carl2291, CityOfNoobs, NinjaBlade360, noname2200, RolStoppable, WiiStation360
Comment: A very predictable winner, but a lot of uncertainty surrounding the other three teams because they all were expected to suck. Seven people being correct is a decent number.

AFC West: DEN, KC, SD, OAK
Who got it right: arcane_chaos, Arkaign, BlowoverKing, CityOfNoobs, DolPhanTendo, impertinence, ljigga, LudicrousSpeed, VancelX, WiiStation360
Comment: A very, very, very predictable winner and loser, only the two teams in the middle were a toss-up. Ten people got it right, but this is less impressive than the AFC North. WiiStation360 got the entire AFC right and that makes him the only one who has been flawless for either conference.

NFC East: DAL, PHI, NYG, WAS
Who got it right: LudicrousSpeed, VancelX
Comment: Deemed as the hardest-to-predict division and rightly so. Not only did only two people get it right, but ten players were wrong across the board.

NFC North: GB, DET, MIN, CHI
Who got it right: CityOfNoobs
Comment: A predictable winner, but the rest of the order failed most people because Chicago's spectacular collapse on offense was unforeseen. This allowed Minnesota to finish in third, something that hardly anyone expected.

NFC South: CAR, NO, ATL, TB
Who got it right: N/A
Comment: It was a rollercoaster ride because of rampant suckiness in the division. In the end Carolina reigned supreme because they finished with a convincing streak of four wins that included embarrassing their rivals on their own turf. At least Tampa Bay lived up to expectations.

NFC West: SEA, ARI, SF, STL
Who got it right: BlowoverKing, Burek, CityOfNoobs, DolPhanTendo, gergroy, ljigga, noname2200, Zelhawks37
Comment: Similar to the AFC West, for most people the only question was who would be second and third. It was without a doubt the easiest NFC division to predict which is why eight people got this one right, compared to only three for the other three divisions combined.

Now let's take a look at the rankings. Each correct entry is worth one point. CityOfNoobs posts an impressive score (.750), especially when you consider that only ten people got over half of the entries right. However, the vast majority of players still has chances to move into the top 10, provided they made good playoff predictions.

RANKINGS
Regular Season
# Name Score
1 CityOfNoobs 24
2 WiiStation360 21
3 VancelX 19
4 ljigga 18
4 NinjaBlade360 18
6 BlowoverKing 17
6 Carl2291 17
6 LudicrousSpeed 17
6 MTZehvor 17
6 noname2200 17
11 impertinence 16
12 arcane_chaos 15
12 Burek 15
12 gergroy 15
12 NobleTeam360 15
12 RolStoppable 15
17 Blacksaber 14
17 burninmylight 14
17 IamAwsome 14
17 Zelhawks37 14
21 Arkaign 13
21 chocoloco 13
21 DolPhanTendo 13
24 Chris Hu 12
24 Farsala 12
24 Level1Death 12
27 amp316 10
28 VisionarySine 9
29 FatedReality 7
30 lolz2222222222222222 1

On to the postseason. We already know the 12 playoff teams, so let's see who got that right.

AFC Playoffs: NE, DEN, PIT, IND, CIN, BAL
Who got it right: N/A
Five out of six: Blacksaber, BlowoverKing, Burek, Carl2291, chocoloco, Chris Hu, CityOfNoobs, Farsala, FatedReality, gergroy, Level1Death, ljigga, LudicrousSpeed, MTZehvor, noname2200, RolStoppable, VancelX, WiiStation360, Zelhawks37
Comment: While nobody was perfect, 19 people getting five out of six right is still a very good number. This is a reflection of the AFC being much easier to predict in general.

NFC Playoffs: SEA, GB, DAL, CAR, ARI, DET
Who got it right: N/A
Five out of six: N/A
Four out of six: BlowoverKing, ljigga, noname2200, WiiStation360
Comment: The results speak for themselves. Everyone got burned by the NFC South. Thank God that at least Seattle delivered.

The updated rankings show only minor shifts in positions. If two players were tied in points, the one who got more playoff teams right is listed in a higher rank. 44 of 59 entries have been completed, so there are only 15 points left to hand out. BlowoverKing, burninmylight, IamAwsome, lolz2222222222222222 and VisionarySine are already out of steam because they didn't predict beyond the wild-card weekend. CityOfNoobs will likely lose his lead due to misguided NFC East fanboyism.

RANKINGS
Wild-Card Weekend
# Name Score
1 CityOfNoobs 32
2 WiiStation360 30
3 ljigga 27
4 VancelX 27
5 BlowoverKing 26
5 noname2200 26
7 Carl2291 25
7 LudicrousSpeed 25
9 NinjaBlade360 25
10 MTZehvor 24
11 gergroy 23
12 Zelhawks37 22
13 Burek 22
13 NobleTeam360 22
13 RolStoppable 22
16 impertinence 22
17 chocoloco 21
18 Blacksaber 21
19 arcane_chaos 21
20 Farsala 20
21 DolPhanTendo 20
22 burninmylight 20
22 IamAwsome 20
24 Chris Hu 19
24 Level1Death 19
26 Arkaign 19
27 amp316 15
28 FatedReality 14
28 VisionarySine 14
30 lolz2222222222222222 1

This was the last announcement post of this week. Thanks for reading.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

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I know I'm doomed in this competition, as I have Eagles going all the way.



chocoloco said:

Just heard about Suh stepping on Rodgers. That must of hurt pretty bad having a 300 pound man step on an already  injured leg twice.

Unfortunate coincidence, no doubt. Suh's been a class act with a history of making good decisions.



noname2200 said:
chocoloco said:

Just heard about Suh stepping on Rodgers. That must of hurt pretty bad having a 300 pound man step on an already  injured leg twice.

Unfortunate coincidence, no doubt. Suh's been a class act with a history of making good decisions.


I just watched the full clip of that.  Incredibly dirty play by Suh.  Clearly intentional.  It should have been longer than a one game suspension.



Miguel_Zorro said:


I just watched the full clip of that.  Incredibly dirty play by Suh.  Clearly intentional.  It should have been longer than a one game suspension.

Pleasantly surprised it was more than just a fine, but then I guess his leash ended a while ago. It's a bit mind boggling, since it's universally agreed that he's an excellent person off the field.



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So…what exactly do the different numbers for homefield advantage mean, exactly? Is having a HFA of 20 more useful than an HFA of 10, for instance?



MTZehvor said:

So…what exactly do the different numbers for homefield advantage mean, exactly? Is having a HFA of 20 more useful than an HFA of 10, for instance?

I might be wrong about this, but I think last year's winner, Zelhawks, won some playoff rounds because of home field advantage.


5.8 Tie-Breaker: If both players predicted the same amount of winners correctly, then the points differentials (meaning how far the players have been off with their predictions) for all four games will be added up. For the player who holds the home field advantage, the number of his HFA will be substracted from his points differential total. In other words, this player has more room for error in his predictions. After the HFA is applied, the player who is closer to the number 0 is the winner. - If there's still a tie, then the player who holds the HFA (in other words, the higher seed) goes to the next round.



I just missed the playoffs at #17 just like my Texans. Oh well, there's always next year.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   

MTZehvor said:

So…what exactly do the different numbers for homefield advantage mean, exactly? Is having a HFA of 20 more useful than an HFA of 10, for instance?

Yes, a higher number is more useful. I'll show you how it works.

The results of last year's wild-card games were IND by 1, NO by 2, SD by 17 and SF by 3. Here's what ljigga and Zelhawks37 had predicted:

#15
ljigga
#2, HFA: 20
Zelhawks37
IND by 3 2 IND by 4 3
PHI by 4 6 NO by 1 1
SD by 3 14 CIN by 10 27
SF by 3 0 SF by 3 0
3-1 22 3-1 11 (31)

*EDIT: VGC doesn't display the top row of the table correctly. The two columns on the right are Zelhawks37's. Hit the quote button on my post to view the table in its proper form, it also has colors.*

The left column of each player shows their predictions, the right column shows by how many points they were off. Since SD beat CIN by 17 points, Zelhawks was off by 27 points on a single game. SF by 3 was spot on for both players, hence a 0 in their right columns.

The bottom row shows the record in the left column. Both players went 3-1, so the tie-breaker was necessary. ljigga was off by 22 points across the four games, Zelhawks was off by 31 points. However, here is where the HFA comes into play. At the top of Zelhawks' half of the table, you see a 20 for his HFA. That was substracted from his 31 points, so he was left with only 11; and that gave him the win because it's about being as close as possible to the number 0.

Without looking deeper into it, I'd say about 50% of the matchups are decided on record alone, about 30% of the time either the higher seed already wins the tie-breaker before the HFA is applied or the lower seed wins despite the HFA for the higher seed, and only in about 20% of the matchups it's the HFA that tips the scale in favor of the higher seed. So while it's good to have HFA, most of the time it won't matter.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Gamers Club

Miguel_Zorro said:
I get to go against last year's regular season leader in the first round! That should be fun.

Anyways, thanks to Rolstoppable for tracking the league all season thus far.


Well as you can see from my fantastic fall from grace, that means absolutely nothing. I'm a lot more scared of you than you are of me!

 

Also, Rol sux.