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I was wrong: Wii U will sell < GC

Forums - Sales Discussion - I was wrong: Wii U will sell < GC

phaedruss said:
ohmylanta1003 said:
phaedruss said:
The launch of the wii u was so misleading. I think it will sell less than the Gamecube as well. Maybe 15 million.


Wow. Go ahead and say that it will sell less than the Gamecube, that's fine. But don't make my eyes bleed because I had to read that ludicrous prediction of 15 million.


Ludicrous eh? It's selling what maybe 1-2 million a year at this rate? Let's assume 2 million, hell even 3 million. It has 3 more years on the market or so, so yea 15-16 million maybe.


Well for one thing, it will certainly be on the market for more than 3 more years. That's a guarentee. And sales are on the up and up and will continue to be with big new releases coming late 2014 and 2015.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

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Dunban67 said:

What brings about this change of heart and/or change of thinking? Personally I agree w you -  I only have a Wii u home console so I want them to do well but I think it is better for console owners and fans to keep Nintendo accountable. 

I sold my Wii U with the intent to buy a PS4. I didn't like where Nintendo seemed to be going. I just think the Wii U isn't all that great. With this, I realized I didn't have to always defend Nintendo. So now, I'm calling it how I see it.



Jay70sgamer said:
binary solo said:

Really? Appealing to whom? And more appealing than what's already come out for Wii U. We already have the 2D Mario, and the 3D Mario, and the Mario Kart, and the Donkey Kong, and the Luigi. That suite of games should have already pushed Wii U well past 10 million units, what makes you think all the appealing Nintendo games coming out in the next 18 months will have any greater effect than the games that came out in Wii U's first 18 months? Software sells hardware no doubt, but Nintendo's software does not appeal to a big enough audience, and this is amply demonstrated by the fact that Nintendo released many brilliant games on GC but it still sold poorly. And Nintendo is more or less repeating the suite of games that were the top sellers on GC, and yet people are expecting a different result? The old skool Nintendo franchises were not what sold Wii, it was the Wii Fits, and the Wii Sports, and the Wii Plays that sold the Wii. The old Nintendo franchises merely benefitted immensly from that hugely expanded install base. SMG launched when Wii was already at 14 million. SSBB launched when Wii was over 20 million. MK Wii launched when Wii was over 24 million. NSMB Wii launched when Wii was over 56 million.

For all that you wrote ...I have a simple answer mario kart 8..... fastest selling mario kart game ever on any nintendo console .......2 million in less than a month on a user base of 6.17 million and the wii u mario kart bundle is sold out in all the major cities and stores on the east coast look it up (gamestop,target,best buy) so your notion that appealing software doesn't move hardware or that it won't move hardware or hasn't is very flawed lol and also wii u didn't appeal  to most people was because there was not much software and no advertising  the first 9 months to 12 months now that issue is resolved it's now a lot of software available and a lot of people were waiting for mario kart 8 ...now the system is more appealing and will continue to be more appealing in which software sells hardware ....

You did read what I wrote yes? Where did I say software does not move hardware? I said exactly the opposite. However I did say that the size of the audience for Nintendo's long-standing franchises is not very big. Yes, MK8 sold 2 million in a month, and yes it moved hardware, but Gamecube also experienced fast selling games and hardware spikes. These things are not evidence that a console will sell at a substantially higher baseline. What truly sells consoles is the total library of games and the anticipation and expecation of more great games down the line. There are far more weeks in a console's lifecycle where no big selling franchise launches, which means for a console to sell well the library of games and the promise of future games must appeal to the market. Every mutli-generation console owner, even including people like me who has never owned Nintendo home consoles, knows about the great and venerable Nintendo franchises. The promise and expectation, and in a number of cases the result, of these franchises is the LTD for Wii U to date. The promise and expectation of games on PS4 has given PS4 an install base almost 2 million larger than Wii U in less than half the time on the market, with quite literally no big franchises yet launched. 

I don't know where you get the notion that Wii U had not much software in the first 18 months. Perhaps not much really apealing 3rd party software, but the 1st party library has been very impressive, as shown in the list of games in my previous post, which is not exhaustive. Nintendo has pumped out several of its top franchises in the first 18 months, first year in fact, and to little effect. The Wii U library is quite impressive for an 18 month old console. I simply disagree that lack of games has held Wii U back. Lack of games certainly hasn't held back PS4. I would say Wii U's game library in the first 18 months has been fairly normal.

@ bold. Not according to VG Chartz. According to VG Chartz numbers MK Wii was at 2 million in 3 weeks. As impressive as MK8 is, especially on that much smaller install base, it is not quite the fastest selling MK of all time. Even if VGC adjusts MK8 up (which it should given the announcement) MK Wii will still be the fastest selling. It is of course very telling that MK8 sold almost as fast as MK Wii, from a console sales perspective being the 2nd fastest selling MK title of all time on possibly the lowest install base of all time is not necessrily the good news you think it is. 



“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell

"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."

Jimi Hendrix

 

*Sound Of Rain said:
Dunban67 said:

What brings about this change of heart and/or change of thinking? Personally I agree w you -  I only have a Wii u home console so I want them to do well but I think it is better for console owners and fans to keep Nintendo accountable. 

I sold my Wii U with the intent to buy a PS4. I didn't like where Nintendo seemed to be going. I just think the Wii U isn't all that great. With this, I realized I didn't have to always defend Nintendo. So now, I'm calling it how I see it.


Once you have had a PS4 for a while, come back and let us know your view on the pro s and com s of each -   If the Wii u does not get Minecradt by Christmas ( or announced a release date for it by then), I'll prob be looking at one of the new consoles or the PS3/XB so my Son can play it



Dunban67 said:

Once you have had a PS4 for a while, come back and let us know your view on the pro s and com s of each -   If the Wii u does not get Minecradt by Christmas ( or announced a release date for it by then), I'll prob be looking at one of the new consoles or the PS3/XB so my Son can play it

Will do



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*Sound Of Rain said:
Dunban67 said:

Once you have had a PS4 for a while, come back and let us know your view on the pro s and com s of each -   If the Wii u does not get Minecradt by Christmas ( or announced a release date for it by then), I'll prob be looking at one of the new consoles or the PS3/XB so my Son can play it

Will do


Thank you



Wii U will sell more because
A. Gaming industry has laregly grown
B. Nintendo's recognition has largely grown
C. It would take more than an 80% drop off from the Wii for it to sell less than GameCube, which has NEVER happened in the gaming industry (Other than maybe a few atari's)



XBOX ONE/Wii U/3DS/PC

RIP Iwata 12/6/1959-7/11/2015

Thanks for all the great memories!

Max King of the Wild said:
Aerys said:
Yes and no.

Wii U will sell less than GC in the same time, but since Wii U could have a longer life, it could sell more


Why would nintendo stick with a product longer then they stuck with a product that was selling better? Wii U won't make it past 2017.


http://www.joystiq.com/2014/06/21/nintendo-of-america-president-wii-u-has-a-very-long-life-ahea/



 

WiiU will sell around 20m. Probably a bit shy of 20m. it will have its Nintendo 5 year lifespan it will sell 3.5m a year average.
Around 18m lifetime.
It will be a massive fail with great SW that will burn in hell.but from its ashes the new Nintendo machine will emerge in time to kick some serious ass.



Smear-Gel said:
Max King of the Wild said:
Aerys said:
Yes and no.

Wii U will sell less than GC in the same time, but since Wii U could have a longer life, it could sell more


Why would nintendo stick with a product longer then they stuck with a product that was selling better? Wii U won't make it past 2017.


http://www.joystiq.com/2014/06/21/nintendo-of-america-president-wii-u-has-a-very-long-life-ahea/

How long is a "very long life"?

 

To Ohmylanta: I meant 3 more years and that's being optimistic because I think they'll have a new console out by the end of 2016.