Forums - Sales Discussion - Xbox one will catch up soon with PS4 and then outsell it in the USA

TheDrill said:
Nicklesbe said:
TheDrill said:


http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/approximatively

I said 10 % because at the time I  made this thread it was 10 %, of course I said approximatively because it was close to 10.14..... so I just approximated it.


Really?! You had to use a wiki? It is not recognized in any official dictionary as a word. it only appears as a word in user editable places. Approximative is a word but not Approximiatively http://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/approximative Until it is recognized by official dictionaries it is not a word. No matter how much you wish it is. At the time it wasn't 10% at the time you were still horrendously wrong because at the time it was over 20%.


Using the official numbers from VGchartz, it was at 10 % and now it is at 11 %.

Either way, even admitting NPD numbers at true, the units are extremely close, and the price cut will only diminish such difference.

The price cut won't do anything because retailers initiated a much deeper price cut and there was no change. If retailers changing the price to $330 wasn't enough then the manufacturer changing it to $399 isn't going to do anything either. Once again the VGchartz numbers over tracked Xb1 and undertracked Ps4, they've admitted they do this time and time again that is why it is their policy to go back and change the numbers to reflect NPD's much more accurate figures after NPD is released. http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=18919 They even admit they change their "methods" when it doesn't match up http://www.vgchartz.com/article/629/where-do-vg-chartz-north-american-numbers-come-from/ they also admit they are often off by 10-20% which they were in this case and you can bet they will go back to adjust those numbers. 



http://www.youtube.com/v/AoOOpLpcF28 http://www.youtube.com/v/CphFZGH5030

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TheDrill said:
Nicklesbe said:
TheDrill said:


http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/approximatively

I said 10 % because at the time I  made this thread it was 10 %, of course I said approximatively because it was close to 10.14..... so I just approximated it.


Really?! You had to use a wiki? It is not recognized in any official dictionary as a word. it only appears as a word in user editable places. Approximative is a word but not Approximiatively http://www.merriam-webster.com/thesaurus/approximative Until it is recognized by official dictionaries it is not a word. No matter how much you wish it is. At the time it wasn't 10% at the time you were still horrendously wrong because at the time it was over 20%.


Using the official numbers from VGchartz, it was at 10 % and now it is at 11 %.

Either way, even admitting NPD numbers at true, the units are extremely close, and the price cut will only diminish such difference.

Hate to say it but VGC numbers are just a joke,
they do the estimation based on last couple months of data,and even based on their own expectation,
and guess what??They'll simply adjust it down and up when the official number is out,
monthly NPD report did showed us how funny VGC numbers are.




This is what's happening in the US.



TheDrill said:
stevechan said:
So you're basically telling us that,
XBOX One is gonna outsold PS4 in USA because of this pricecut?? (if this debundle did consider as pricecut),
and the main reason is,XBOX360 was dominated USA in Gen 7,
well,just my 2 cents,PS2 dominated the whole world including USA in Gen 6,
and guess what happened to PS3?


The main reason is that X1 only sold 10 % less than PS4, and that X360 is very strong in USA.

X1 also sold more software in US than PS4.

You can keep saying that the X1 only sold 10% less a billion times, but the fact is that the X1 has been outsold by 20% (3 million PS4 vs 2.5 million X1). To continuously use VGC numbers when they have been shown to be widely inaccurate shows your huge reluctance to accept the cold hard facts. A $399 Kinect-less SKU isn't going to save the X1. It's a ripoff deal in comparison to the Titanfall bundle and it will be stigmatized with the fact that it's significantly less powerful than the PS4 at the same price.



Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
stevechan said:
So you're basically telling us that,
XBOX One is gonna outsold PS4 in USA because of this pricecut?? (if this debundle did consider as pricecut),
and the main reason is,XBOX360 was dominated USA in Gen 7,
well,just my 2 cents,PS2 dominated the whole world including USA in Gen 6,
and guess what happened to PS3?


The main reason is that X1 only sold 10 % less than PS4, and that X360 is very strong in USA.

X1 also sold more software in US than PS4.

You can keep saying that the X1 only sold 10% less a billion times, but the fact is that the X1 has been outsold by 20% (3 million PS4 vs 2.5 million X1). To continuously use VGC numbers when they have been shown to be widely inaccurate shows your huge reluctance to accept the cold hard facts. A $399 Kinect-less SKU isn't going to save the X1. It's a ripoff deal in comparison to the Titanfall bundle and it will be stigmatized with the fact that it's significantly less powerful than the PS4 at the same price.

To be fair, he's been quoting how much less of PS4 it is... which is a slightly different figure. In the case of 3m vs 2.5m, it is 16.6% lower than PS4 sales. However, this is a convenience tactic because you should be looking at the % required by X1 to improve.

The reason for this is simple; theoretically, if PS4 continues it's trend of sales and (on average) continues the gap, X1 have to increase their own sales by 20% before they even match PS4. To start to even catch that 0.5m lead - which may extend to 0.75m by June - they need to improve their own sales by over 20%. To catch and outsell PS4 by the end of 2014, they're going to have to improve their own sales figures by over 40%.

I don't believe it. I really don't.



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I think quoting 10% or 11% is a waste of time as been said many times before, Even if MS match sales that is a 15 million loss... not sure what percentage that would work out as (can't be bothered to work it out)... but i'm sure that figure will be much more impressive than... Sony only has a 10% gap so far.



Making an indie game : Dead of Day!

TheDrill is now without a doubt one of my favorite users on this site. He has been put up there with Ethomaz and Selnor(even though I like the two of them for different reasons and they are way more level headed). But this thread is GOLD!

I will say though I would not have minded all his arguments if he would have just accepted his wrongs. But he never acknowledged them and made it seem like everyone else was wrong. Not cool at all. I personally believe that the US is not lost for the XB1 and that it will make a comeback. But it will NOT dominate the US compared to the PS4. Like the 360 did with the PS3. I feel that by the end of this gen they will be basically tied in the US.



The absence of evidence is NOT the evidence of absence...

PSN: StlUzumaki23

By VGC numbers X1 have sold in USA this year 984k: and PS4 950k.
By NPD numbers X1 have sold in USA this year 825k+44k (100k just from April) and PS4 1126k+45k (76k under from small points cumulated).

So for VGChartz innacurate numbers X1 have been in front of PS4 by 3,5%. And by NPD more precise numbers PS4 is in front by 36,5%.

Do you really think VGC have been right in saying X1 were winning all weeks the last 4 months and NPD have been screwing up, but since VGC is so compassive with NPD they correct their numbers so they don't humiliate it... Or VGC knows they are wrong and them they correct... why have you been conveniently ignoring this part in all posts?



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Aura7541 said:
TheDrill said:
stevechan said:
So you're basically telling us that,
XBOX One is gonna outsold PS4 in USA because of this pricecut?? (if this debundle did consider as pricecut),
and the main reason is,XBOX360 was dominated USA in Gen 7,
well,just my 2 cents,PS2 dominated the whole world including USA in Gen 6,
and guess what happened to PS3?


The main reason is that X1 only sold 10 % less than PS4, and that X360 is very strong in USA.

X1 also sold more software in US than PS4.

You can keep saying that the X1 only sold 10% less a billion times, but the fact is that the X1 has been outsold by 20% (3 million PS4 vs 2.5 million X1). To continuously use VGC numbers when they have been shown to be widely inaccurate shows your huge reluctance to accept the cold hard facts. A $399 Kinect-less SKU isn't going to save the X1. It's a ripoff deal in comparison to the Titanfall bundle and it will be stigmatized with the fact that it's significantly less powerful than the PS4 at the same price.


Try the YEAR-TO-DATE numbers... from NPD X1 is 825k and PS4 is 1126k, meaning PS4 is 36,5% over or in the wiseness of this guy X1 is 26,7% under PS4.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

everything will depend of June.

If X1 doenst win june by at least 100k, it cant win in the Usa ( remember they have to catch a difference of 500k(and soon +600k) with the PS4) and they have nothing bigger than Titanfall (that didnt beat PS4)except a remake of Halo 2, so if the price cut itself doesnt make it win, nothing will (it will be too late in December 2015 )



Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m