Regarding the Kinectless SKU, that's fine with me as long as Microsoft rewards early adopters in SOME way. I don't even have my Kinect hooked up still. That being said, it seems unlikely that Microsoft will remove Kinect. I think there is a better chance they will just bite the bullet and either lower the cost of the system or start bundling something with it.
The thing about lowering the cost of the system is that in terms of normal reduction of production cost, Sony will also be doing that.
And unfortunately, I seriously doubt that Kinect hardware can be similarly reduced in production cost: it's a bunch of lenses and such, not just chips.
So any reduction beyond what Sony can trivially achieve really means MS losing money by subsidizing it further.
That might make sense if they thought they could make more out of it by selling lots of games, but all signs are that Sony is dominating this gen,
and I don't really think that even a majorly price subsidized Kinect XBone will really be able to change that over-all picture.
It's clear that BOTH MS and Sony wanted this gen to not be losing money out of the gate, to be a more sure-thing money maker, so subsidies seem unlikely.
They knew that Sony would be cheaper for some time now, and they knew that would likely affect sale popularity, if they were going to change, they would have.
Removing Kinect, or offering a Kinect-less SKU, is a quick way to achieve that price reduction without any subsidy whatsoever.
Since Kinect is a major focus of XBone (otherwise it's just a weaker console), I think it would make sense to throw in free Kinect games with the Kinect bundle. That at least helps it look valuable compared to PS4's Eye Camera, which is the relevant point of comparison.
MS is subsidizing (or owning) the devs creating Kinect games at this point anyways, so including some for free in Kinect bundles seems a reasonable promo.
(ideally offering several Kinect games, and including the choice of any one for free with Kinect2 purchase)
Heck, make all those Kinect games download-only, and they don't lose any on physical distribution or retailer margin, just plug in your Kinect and get your free game.
That can even be extended to original Kinect-XBone SKU purchasers, to reward their dedication... Although I wouldn't bet on that one