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PlayStation 4 Has Slight Sales Advantage in US Following Holiday Supply Issues

Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation 4 Has Slight Sales Advantage in US Following Holiday Supply Issues

This is off-topic but while ioi is here I'd like to ask him if it were possible to delete polls?!

Such as in this thread:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=159902&page=1

Thank you!



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ethomaz said:

I will try to read more later but it is not about what suit me or anything like... it is more about how accurate the data is... I think big difference bettween NPD and VGC bad for example while a difference around 50k is fine.

And I always try to use the data we have from others tracks see how the VGC is doing... maybe I'm wrong doing that but I think the data needs to be close to reach some accuracy.

An example? The VGC number for Xbone are inline with the MS shared numbers (2 million in 18 days) but all the others tracker we have sales shows the console didn't sold these units in these 18 days unless they did some crazy numbers in America Latina like 500k units and I really can't believe Brazil buying 200-300k units... so if the maths didn't match I think there are some erros in the data... where? I don't know but the maths needs to match or at least be close to match... over 100k difference for me is a big deal for a consoles tha sold less than 3 million units.

No seriously, you need to read the thread because you are making the same basic mistakes.

One of the main ones is your idea that other "trackers" like NPD, GFK, Media Create etc are presenting data that is 100% accurate - it isn't. They are just estimates and will carry margins of error just like our data does and just like internal estimates from manufacturers. They collect data from a sample of stores and extrapolate that data to represent the whole market - they are not tracking each and every sale directly. Also, when data gets leaked through random sources on Twitter or whatever, it is normally wrong.



ioi said:
Troll_Whisperer said:

ioi, may suggest something?

I think the main problem with VGC numbers is that you provide very precise numbers, for instance PS4 appears to have sold 429,446 units. This makes people put too much emphasis on small differences and gives the impression of perfect accuracy. Perhaps you should start presenting data as margins (say, 390,000-470,000) or round them all to the nearest 10,000  (430,000) so it doesn't give the impression that the numbers are 100% accurate.

You could still add these precise numbers (429,446) to the totals, etc. so that people can figure them out if they want, but at least I think looking at the main page numbers would have a psychological effect where people realise more easily that these are estimates and not 100% accurate 100% of the time.

We discuss this in the other thread, I've yet to come up with a way of physically presenting the numbers as you suggest without it looking horribly messy. Also, how do you decide what order to put things in? The convention of presenting the midpoint of the range of estimates is one that is used by everyone else so I've always been happy following the it.

In all honesty, I think most people understand that it isn't meant to be a precisely measured number but maybe it does need to be made more explicitly clear for those few who don't.

So could you put any tech guy to work to also activate other network ids back in our profiles? ( instead of just the psn id )



 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League http://www.vgchartz.com/predictions

Carl2291 said:
ioi said:

Its gonna be fun watching things unfold.

Grats on the Xbox One tracking btw. Spot on.

I agree. Thanks to ioi and others for all the hard work. It pays off when the numbers are so accurate leading to the site becoming highly interesting and relevant. That's obviously the biggest reason for many of us to visit.

A little Knacking and nitpicking question. Nothing important but just something I've thought of. Since it's a new year and all couldn't we have some kind of friendly fight between Nintendo and PlayStation for that beautiful blue color in the "Global Hardware Totals" chart? I love both companies' offerings but the PlayStation color has been blue for many years and this has become even clearer with PS4. Also the PSVITA looks even more doomed with that red color. xD

 

 

"I have a PS and it is so blue."

 

 

Maybe Nintendo would take the red color voluntarily??



wooooohoooooo



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pezus said:
selnor1983 said:
kowenicki said:
selnor1983 said:
Us will be Mcrosofts very soon.

When Titanfall releases, Sony may as well kiss goodbye to US.


Titanfall plus Halo is a bit of a killer combo for the US isnt it.  It certainly seems that way to me.

 

With Supply completely sorted by Titanfall release. I wouldnt be surprised to see Xbox One regularly outsell PS4 in US by over 120,000/week. ESPECIALLY after the glowing reviews the game gets. And the Xbox One version being loads better.

X1 hasn't been supply constrained in the US for a long time... (online shops: http://www.zoolert.com/videoconsoles/xbox-one-console/trackers/)

Want to bet on that (bold)? 

Xbox One version being loads better than what? 

Its only an opinion. Ill be wrong or right.

Titanfall on Xbox One will be alot better than 360. An a great time an reason to make the jump if not done so already.  I havent  preordered Titanfall yet. Will do this week I think. Watchdogs will have to wait. But then it will be cheaper down the line. Also sorry Destiny, you can  wait to. Titanfall looks to good. 



selnor1983 said:
pezus said:
selnor1983 said:
kowenicki said:
selnor1983 said:
Us will be Mcrosofts very soon.

When Titanfall releases, Sony may as well kiss goodbye to US.


Titanfall plus Halo is a bit of a killer combo for the US isnt it.  It certainly seems that way to me.

 

With Supply completely sorted by Titanfall release. I wouldnt be surprised to see Xbox One regularly outsell PS4 in US by over 120,000/week. ESPECIALLY after the glowing reviews the game gets. And the Xbox One version being loads better.

X1 hasn't been supply constrained in the US for a long time... (online shops: http://www.zoolert.com/videoconsoles/xbox-one-console/trackers/)

Want to bet on that (bold)? 

Xbox One version being loads better than what? 

Its only an opinion. Ill be wrong or right.

Titanfall on Xbox One will be alot better than 360. An a great time an reason to make the jump if not done so already.  I havent  preordered Titanfall yet. Will do this week I think. Watchdogs will have to wait. But then it will be cheaper down the line. Also sorry Destiny, you can  wait to. Titanfall looks to good. 

What game thus far that is muitiplat  has sold similar numbers on PS4 and X1 than on PS3 and 360?  Assuming the March release date holds true it is hard to believe the game will change that trend so soon.



ethomaz said:

ioi said:

Read the entire thread, there's lots in there about how the data is estimated which should hopefully give you (and others) a much better understanding.

A comment like "for me an error less than 50k is acceptable but over 100k not... it is a big error and needs to be fixed asap" is so pointless and demonstrates your ignorance of the situation - frankly, it doesn't matter what you feel is acceptable or not, it is a case of what is realistic and achievable with the data we have. As a user of the data, you need to understand its limitations and how best to use it. The data is what it is, you have to bend to suit it, it won't bend to suit you I'm afraid.

I will try to read more later but it is not about what suit me or anything like... it is more about how accurate the data is... I think big difference bettween NPD and VGC bad for example while a difference around 50k is fine.

And I always try to use the data we have from others tracks see how the VGC is doing... maybe I'm wrong doing that but I think the data needs to be close to reach some accuracy.

An example? The VGC number for Xbone are inline with the MS shared numbers (2 million in 18 days) but all the others tracker we have sales shows the console didn't sold these units in these 18 days unless they did some crazy numbers in America Latina like 500k units and I really can't believe Brazil buying 200-300k units... so if the maths didn't match I think there are some erros in the data... where? I don't know but the maths needs to match or at least be close to match... over 100k difference for me is a big deal for a consoles tha sold less than 3 million units.

I dont think you understand.

Its mathematics. The percentages dont change regardless of the amount estimated. Hence why 10 million will provide bigger ( figure ) margin. The larger the amount the greater the apparant difference may be. Even though the same method and % is used. VGC has never claimed to be an exact science. Nor is NPD for that matter. Only Sony, Microsoft and NIntendo have exact figures. and they rarely say outside sold to retail.



Be great for Sony to stay competitive in North America, assures global victory. This year will be fascinating to watch.



Don't see why some feel so confident that Xbox One will take the US so easily. Xbox isn't really supply constrained at the moment. PS4 is. So, what's going to happen when the PS4 actually has enough supply in the US to stay on shelves? Well, sales will go up, while Xbox One sales will stay around the same. And why is Titanfall going to make it win? The exclusivity is obviously only for the first game, as EA wants to make it one of the shooters it puts in rotation, with the first most likely being a timed exclusive. When has a timed exclusive, of most likely 6 months to a year, won any region?

Whoever wins the US, the difference will remain very small, most likely 1.2:1. Even if that is the One, it won't help its situation WW.