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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Wii U, 3DS Lifetime Sales Predictions

 

Will Nintendo 3DS outsell its predecessor?

Yes 121 35.28%
 
No 220 64.14%
 
Total:341

wii U = 30 mil. probably cos its sucessor will came early, in 2017.
3DS = 100 mil.



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tbone51 said:
Its stilltoo early to say for WiiU

Minimum 18mil Maximum 40mil

3DS easy

100mil+ (between 90mil-110mil) depends how long they support it honestly


How did you come up with those 100M+ numbers?



Mummelmann said:

Hard to say, but I'll make a guess.

Wii U: 18-25 million

3DS: 80-90 million

I'll take the average and say somewhere around 21.5 million Wii U's and 85 million 3DS.

The Wii U was poorly designed and hasted out the gate to counter the incredible and sudden decline of the Wii, it lacks basic appeal, at least that's my theory. Seeing the tiny effects of software and price cut, and the short time window of effect on both accounts, this is looking more and more likely, Q1 and Q2 2014 will be conclusive though, even if it manages a decent holiday, that doesn't mean much, it had a very good holiday season last year and we saw what difference that made for the remainder of the year. Squeezed between the 7th and the 8th gen, it will probably be slaughtered on all points, from profitability, software sales, support and hardware sales from one competitor or another and it will likely be replaced a lot sooner than the Wii was.

The 3DS will fall victim to a collapse in the dedicated handheld market due to tablets/phones devouring marketshare and stealing the entire casual base (this has all but happened already) and the more core gamer will get their fill with home consoles, mirroring on smart devices and more core games arriving for the tablets and phones as the market expands and attracts more serious customers. We're already seeing this development in Europe and Japan, digital distribution will also contribute to this in the long run.
The DS had three consecutive years of over or around 30 million (!!!) consoles sold, the 3DS will never get anywhere near this and has a probable peak around PS3/360 levels right now and is set to track about 12 million below the DS after three years on the market now in february despite initially tracking above, launches aligned, this is is very similar to Wii behavior, only a lot sooner and in spite of reduced price and good support.


How is 3DS peaking around PS3 and 360 levels? So which do you think will have higher lifetime sells PS3 or 3DS?



3DS- over 100 million.
WiiU- I honestly don't know. It could go either way at this point.



Shadow1980 said:
Wii U: 40 million
3DS: 120 million


I agree with this



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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At the start of the gen I said Wii U will sell 16m and I'll stick with that.

I thought 3DS would be 40m but bar the end of the world I got that one wrong. I don't think Nintendo has much left for it though and third parties aren't biting so I'll say 60m when all is said and done.



phenom08 said:

How is 3DS peaking around PS3 and 360 levels? So which do you think will have higher lifetime sells PS3 or 3DS?


Actually, that's lower than what the PS3 and 360 will end up with. And I think the answer is pretty simple - the 3DS's peak is about the same as the PS3 peak with the difference that the 3DS peaked earlier (this year) in its lifecycle.



The 3DS hasnt peaked lol.



No because the 3DS has practically peaked already.



Mummelmann said:

Hard to say, but I'll make a guess.

Wii U: 18-25 million

3DS: 80-90 million

I'll take the average and say somewhere around 21.5 million Wii U's and 85 million 3DS.

The Wii U was poorly designed and hasted out the gate to counter the incredible and sudden decline of the Wii, it lacks basic appeal, at least that's my theory. Seeing the tiny effects of software and price cut, and the short time window of effect on both accounts, this is looking more and more likely, Q1 and Q2 2014 will be conclusive though, even if it manages a decent holiday, that doesn't mean much, it had a very good holiday season last year and we saw what difference that made for the remainder of the year. Squeezed between the 7th and the 8th gen, it will probably be slaughtered on all points, from profitability, software sales, support and hardware sales from one competitor or another and it will likely be replaced a lot sooner than the Wii was.

The 3DS will fall victim to a collapse in the dedicated handheld market due to tablets/phones devouring marketshare and stealing the entire casual base (this has all but happened already) and the more core gamer will get their fill with home consoles, mirroring on smart devices and more core games arriving for the tablets and phones as the market expands and attracts more serious customers. We're already seeing this development in Europe and Japan, digital distribution will also contribute to this in the long run.
The DS had three consecutive years of over or around 30 million (!!!) consoles sold, the 3DS will never get anywhere near this and has a probable peak around PS3/360 levels right now and is set to track about 12 million below the DS after three years on the market now in february despite initially tracking above, launches aligned, this is is very similar to Wii behavior, only a lot sooner and in spite of reduced price and good support.

Wii U could go either way. If 3D World, Mario Kart, and other exclusives don't help sales much, then Wii U should do about 10 million. If they revive the Wii U, it could get to 50-60 millon if the games come out at a decent speed. 

3DS should get to 100 million. Think about it, phones and tablets are already taking over, yet 3DS has sold 36 million in almost 3 years. If the handheld market is going to die because of smartphones, then It's going to happen when they're powerful enough to play full blown AAA games.

By the way, Wii wasn't replaced early. It was replaced after 6 years. That's pretty normal. PS3 and 360 just had longer lives.