1. The only console refresh that will happen is to make the console cheaper. A kinect less sku is pretty much a given as a hdd less console will not work this gen. I can see one without optical drive happening too down the line.
A premium 1TB SSD+HD hybrid console might happen too of course, but the cpu and gpu will not change. A refresh might happen with a glasses like peripheral if Occulus rift turns out to be a hit.
2. Nintendo will not release a new console in 2 years, no way. They'll still be first to launch again, end 2017 at the earliest, probably 2018.
3. Game parity by next year, erm no, won't happen this gen. There will be exceptions, even the shoddy port to ps4 but the difference in GPU power is too big to overcome.
Cloud compute to boost performance is still mostly a fantasy. Laggy lighting is about as far as the ideas have gone so far. More persistent world MMO like experiences will happen, but it's not going to do anything to help single player games. It's just too much effort to code 2 game engines for when the connection stutters. Of course there will be plenty to claim they can't work without the cloud, like Sim City 2013.
5. Please no. I'm sure I'm not the only one that plays games as a form of escapism from the world. Always connected online multiplayer experiences, all dirty words. I don't need to be constantly compared to everyone else in the world. Living breathing evolving worlds all fine, as long as I don't have to share them with L33tsh0t[XOX] etc. Nor do I like the idea much that they go on evolving without me, I'm the player, it's my world, save and exit.