Funny then that grandmas and soccer moms bought so many copies of Zelda TP that just after a year from launch it'll pass Wind Waker's sales (has already done so in NA).  Funny also that MP3 is after 5 or so months closing in on MP2.  All those grandmas and soccer moms must have jumped at the chance to finish off Dark Samus.  They also seem to be snatching up Madden at a similar pace (though a higher rate) than on the Gamecube.  Those EA commercials with the old woman playing Madden 08 must have really worked.  There's also RE4 which will soon equal the GCN version's sales.  Grandmas and soccer moms obviously love to take down hordes or not-zombies to destroy a Spanish cult bent on world domination.

So yeah, thats 4 games that appeal to traditional gamers that have done better on a system with a smaller install base than their predecessors did (RE4 is a small exception, it's doing about the same but it's the same game).  Nevertheless though, SSBB can't with far more hype and a bigger install base.  No wonder you won't take Rol's bet.

EDIT: Legend has taken the bet apparently,  well everything but the last sentence still holds.

lifetime or first week?

first week : gta
lifetime : brawl

Gta4 BIG MORE AND BETTER :P

As much as im looking forward to SSBB i think GTA4 will do better in sales although it is on 2 consoles so it does have a major advantage, however when you think deeper SSBB isnt the type of game which you would want to sell on ebay or exchange, whereas people get bored of going on rampages through the city pretty fast so i think that may hold back sales...

 eBay or exchanging/buying used would not count towards its total sales anyway...

I'm looking forward to both titles ( i might even buy a Wii just for SSBB) but I think that it's incredibly unrealistic to think that brawl will come any where near GTA in sales, on the PS2 alone GTA : SA sold 6x the times that Super Smash Bros melee on the GC did .

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+Melee+-+GC&reg2=All&game2=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2&reg3=All&game3=&weeks=100

In my mind I can't comprehend a world where SSBB would outsell GTA. GTA is multiplatform for one , with XBOX 360 have the highest attach rate of the 3 and GTA traditionaly being a Playsation title we're guaranteed more sales of this particular GTA than any other in the series possibly 8-13 million in sales ?

 GTA isn't the kind of title that has to be delayed because of competiton , infact i'd go as far as to say they could release GTA the day after Final Fantasy and still outsell the SSBB if you compared their sales over a 3 month period.

SSBB will do good but won't selll ike GTA , your forget that the Wii userbase isn't the type to rush into stores and buy the latest exclusive , after Wii sports and Wii Fit much of the Wii userbase is satisfied .

I think the one random factor some people are forgetting about though, is that the Wii is like the new PS2, and the 360 and PS3 have never had a GTA title, so it's not a guaranteed seller, at least in the degree of the PS2 GTAs.

The 360 does have a big attach rate, and GTA is going to sell a lot, but as much as its PS2 predecessors? I don't think that's guaranteed...we don't even know what the end product looks like yet...it might disappoint technically and with reviews, who knows. I think we're going to have to wait til much closer to GTA's release to really know.

oh right.

Edit : Looked at Wikipedia ( wether you regard that to be a reliable source or not is a whole other issue)  and it claims SSBM sold 6 million units.

The ps2 version alone sold  1.2 million , take into consideration the XBOX and PC versions GTA must have managed to outsell SSBB by at least 2.3 million.

What do I prefer? ... Brawl (one of the top 3 games I am looking for in 2008).

What do I think will sell more? ... GTA4. It has the advantage of higher installed user base - at this point - and plenty of rabid fans. Of coarse, I am including sales of BOTH X360 and PS3.

I do like GTA, though I feel I am the only one in the universe who though San Andreas a let down after Vice City. That's another topic though.

GTA4.

Soccer moms and grandparents are content with wii sports, wii fit, maybe another golf game and/or fishing game.

The hardcore wii owners account for ~ 10% of the wii install base. I really think that SSBB may be just the next game you wonder why the majority wii install base just isn't buying these types of games. I'm not trolling, I'm sure it will be fun for you. I am interested to hear about the injuries from this game now that people have a reason to be in close quarters and lunge around.