We can't really know until 3DS sales take off.. I expect it to sell better than SM64 DS ltd. So it will probably outsell Galaxy 2 but not sure about Galaxy since it is getting a bundle and a new cheaper edition as well. I'm expecting SM3D Land to edge 10 million 

I'm certainly not that optimistic about sales, but then again we may all be pleasantly surprised.

I agree it won't hit the critical reception though. I'm (obviously from my sig) looking forward to it either way.

Reviews: 87-92. It is gonna get bashed only for not being like Galaxy.
Sales: 3-17 million. Yeah, I'm calling it!

Well, it depends on how successful you expect the 3DS to be, I guess. Personally, I think it's likely to see a good 80-120 million. With that base, 16 million isn't out of reach.

But if you expect the 3DS to die out at 60 million, 16 million is a long stretch. For a comparison, here's the Wii and DS.

Wii at 64 million had Mario Kart Wii (20 million), Wii Fit (22 million) at over 16 million, with NSMB Wii (10 million), Wii Sports Resorts (12 million) and Wii Fit Plus (10 million)  later reaching it.

DS at 64 million had Nintendogs (17 million), with NSMB DS (12.5 million), Brain Training (11 million), Brain Training 2 (9 million), Diamond/Pearl (13 million), Animal Crossing (9 million) and Mario Kart DS (9 million) later reaching it.

60 million is the very low-end for the 3DS, agreed? Following the Wii/DS trend, that would lead to 1-3 16 million + titles, and a good 2-4 10 million + titles.

If it makes a hundred million, it could make 6 16 million + sellers.

Of course, that's all speculative, but I definitely don't think 16 million is out of reach for it.

i see it doing like 7 mill ltd

you gotta remember the games on the original ds were $29.99

now the 3ds games are $39.99

3ds games wont sell like the ds games did

I don't think being on handheld will affect it too much. I don't think it will get the scores that Super Mario Galaxy / Super Mario Galaxy 2 got. SMG was dam near perfection and SMG2 was, imo, vastly over-rated. In sales terms I would hope that is surpasses SMG2 but I doubt it can pass SMG (although I would love to be proved wrong).

In what way do you mean surpass? I think in terms of greatness it will be as good as the Galaxy games, maybe even more fun as it owes more to 2D than 3D mario.

I had never given it that much thought, but you do make a compelling argument. 60 million is a good floor because you figure it can't do any worse than PSP's modest success.

My fear was that Nintendo's attempts to hybridize 2d and 3d would create a bastard child that would fail to find a market in between, regardless of the success or failure of the platform it's on, but all the previews seem reasonably jazzed by the approach

I doubt Mario 3D land will touch the sales of the Galaxy series, for the simple fact that the 3DS has a much smaller userbase. Over the course of several years it might inch close, but Galaxy had a much larger installed userbase when it was released, especially Galaxy 2.

I think this game will definitely sell 10 million units, as even on low-selling platforms, Mario games have performed extraordinarily well (think Mario 64 which was selling to almost every third owner of a N64)

It's a bit hard to predict, Galaxy did almost 10m and Galaxy 2 almost 7, Mario 64 was the only 3D Mario on a handheld and it did above 10m if I remember correctly, so this should do like 10m or somewhere close, if 3DS sales go as high as the DS it can surpass that as it's a new game and not a remake as Mario 64