Predict the opening weekend for The Lion King (3D).

My prediction is : $14.1M

Lion King: $18m

Forecast: 'Lion King' to Roar Again

One of the all-time box-office greats, The Lion King, returns to 2,330 nearly single-screen locations (mostly in 3D) this weekend and has an excellent shot at recapturing the top spot. Drive, though, has revved the loudest in pre-release polling and has snared the broadest release (close to 3,100 screens at 2,886 locations), while Straw Dogs (around 2,650 screens at 2,408 locations) and I Don't Know How She Does It (2,476 nearly single-screen locations) have shown little promise.

The Lion King is the wildest card of the weekend, because it's still incredibly popular yet there's little to compare it to as far as re-issues go. Disney re-issues were consistently popular prior to the DVD era, but, since then, the best comp is Toy Story / Toy Story 2 (3D). As a double feature, that's not exactly apples-to-apples, but it earned $12.5 million its first weekend at 1,745 locations. With a lifetime haul of $328.5 million, Lion King still stands as the top-grossing traditionally-animated movie ever, and, in terms of estimated attendance, it's easily the biggest animated movie of the past 50 years. This 3D re-issue will only extend its lead.

Drive has been pushed as a slick and hip crime action picture starring Ryan Gosling (who hasn't carried a hit since The Notebook). It comes off as an artsier version of a Jason Statham movie. The action may resonate, but the hipster factor may alienate, as it did with Shoot 'Em Up, Eastern Promises, Domino and, going back to Sept. 1993, True Romance, among others.

I Don't Know How She Does It seems like a botched affair. We get it, Sarah Jessica Parker does so much that she's overwhelmed, but what's the plot? People are busy enough in their own lives, so what's the point of seeing another overwhelmed person on the big screen? Apparently, Parker's also so overwhelmed that she or the camera can't sit still long enough for her to register in the ads. The supporting players seemingly get more actual face time. The marketing has also sent mixed messages: on the one hand, the poster and some ads center on Parker, but other ads make the movie out to be an ensemble.

Unlike I Don't Know How She Does It, Straw Dogs comes off as a professional production and has a clear premise in its ads. But it also seems both unpleasant and unrelatable. Those two aspects may prove insurmountable, especially without the comfort of a famous character actor to chew scenery (such as Samuel L. Jackson in Lakeview Terrace from Sept. 2008).

In Box Office Mojo's "when will you see it" reader polling, Drive was in pole position, boasting nearly 24 percent for opening weekend, which was close to The Town but other similar September movies have fallen far short of high poll results, including Eastern Promises and Shoot 'Em Up.

The Lion King scored a solid 17.9 percent for opening weekend, compared to 22.9 percent for the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 double feature. Straw Dogs evoked little interest, nabbing eight percent for opening weekend, which was behind The Last House on the Left remake's 11 percent but was better than Lakeview Terrace's 7.3 percent. I Don't Know How She Does It, though, brought up the rear with just 2.2 percent for opening weekend. Now, this movie isn't exactly our readers' cup of tea, but it was still far behind comparable titles, including The Women (2008) (4 percent) and The Back-Up Plan (5.1 percent).

The Forecast, Sept. 16-18
1. The Lion King - $15 million
2. Drive - $11.5 million
3. Contagion - $11 million
4. The Help - $6.5 million
5. I Don't Know How She Does It - $6 million
6. Straw Dogs - $5.9 million

Bar for Success
It's practically all gravy for The Lion King at this point, but a relaunched event of its stature should at least match the Toy Story re-issue. Low teen millions would be fine for the other releases.

That's not happening .Sounds way too high.

$16M is the ceiling imo.

FRIDAY ESTIMATES

Wow. It will be more than $18m!

I greatly underestimated it =(

Friday Report: 'Lion King' Pounces on Weak Field

Exceeding even the most generous prognostications, the 3D re-release of The Lion King ascended to first place on Friday with an estimated $8.8 million. Among the other openers, Drive had a solid start that couldn't quite live up to Internet buzz, while Straw Dogs and I Don't Know How She Does It didn't know how to draw audiences.

The Lion King (in 3D) earned its $8.8 million from 2,330 locations, nearly all of which were playing the movie in 3D. That's more than twice as much as the Toy Story/Toy Story 2 (3D) double-feature re-release grossed on its first day two years ago ($3.3 million), and it's also slightly better than September 2009's animated hit Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs ($8.1 million). Typically family fare sees a huge jump on Saturday, and based on historical antecedents The Lion King should be headed for somewhere between $31 and $35 million for the three-day frame.

Last weekend's winner Contagion had to settle for second place on Friday, dipping 42 percent to $4.6 million. That's a tad steeper than last September's The Town (40 percent), though it's still a decent hold. Through eight days in theaters, the Steven Soderbergh epidemic thriller has earned $34.3 million.

Drive debuted to just over $4 million from 2,886 locations, which is much better than Shoot 'Em Up and Eastern Promises ($1.9 million), though the latter was playing at less than half the number of theaters. Also, as hard as it is to believe this is the third-best opening day for star Ryan Gosling, behind Crazy, Stupid, Love. and The Notebook. Still, the movie should only wind up at $11 or $12 million for the weekend, which makes it the latest example of how endless Internet hype is rarely a strong indicator of mainstream appeal.

Straw Dogs disappointed with a paltry estimated $1.99 million from 2,408 theaters. That's way off from similar titles The Last House on the Left ($5.6 million) and Lakeview Terrace ($5.1 million), and it will be lucky to crack $6 million for the three-day period.

It appears women opted to catch up on The Help (or see it for a second time) on Friday instead of checking out the latest comedy from Sarah Jessica Parker. The late Summer hit eased just 28 percent to $1.93 million for a total of $142.9 million, while I Don't Know How She Does It debuted to just $1.56 million from 2,476 locations. That's lower than underperforming Fall movies You Again ($2.7 million) and Morning Glory ($3.1 million), and is also off from Parker's Did You Hear About the Morgans? ($2.34 million). It's in line to finish the weekend with under $5 million.

Neither of last weekend's lesser newcomers saved much face in their second frame. Warrior tapped out with an estimated $897,000 (off 49 percent) and has earned a paltry $8 million so far. That's an impressive performance, though, compared to Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star, which plummeted 76 percent to just $130,000 (a per theater average of $87). The Adam Sandler-produced comedy has made $2.1 million through eight days in theaters.

The think "Lion King" Can make more than $30m!!