Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 3DS vs NGP prediction thread.

If you disregard Apple, I fully expect the 3DS to achieve near the point of monopoly.



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I don't know where all these phones games are going to harm the gaming portable maket come from, maybe for apple fans that want their system to have a real gaming market but I just don't think will happen that soon, when it comes nintendo will be doing a nintendo phone but now is not the time.

Lol cell phone fanboys want to destroy the gaming portable market go psp2 and 3ds

 

talking about 3ds and ps2, it will be the same as ds and psp or this time 3ds will sell even more considering the problem of the economy I don't think so but still it will outsell more as the ds did.

 

Nintendo is very smart and yes in the future there will be someking of 3ds lite ;p, I will be very happy with my 3ds I preordered



I think there are a few too many unknowns to really make an accurate prediction at this point in time ...

First off, the NGP is far enough away from launching that it is entirely possible it could see a much later release than most people are expecting today; and if the NGP launched 6 months after the 3DS it would (obviously) have a much smaller sales gap between the 3DS than if it launches 18 months after the 3DS.

Then there is the price of the NGP and its games because it is possible that the NGP will launch for $400 (or more) with $60 (or higher) games. While people may see value in the NGP if it is cost competitive, the higher the price is the more likely it is that the NGP will struggle to find a market.

On top of that we have questions about third party support. To everyone who is paying attention the 3DS is getting dramatically better third party support starting at launch, and we know little about how third party publishers are supporting the NGP. Obviously, having stronger third party support can only benefit a platform.

 

When you start adding these things together and you ask how well the following systems would compete against the 3DS, odds are pretty good that you would have dramatically different answers.

1) A $400/$450 NGP with $60/$70 games launching 18 months after the 3DS with weaker third party support

2) A $300/$350 NGP with $50/$60 games launching 6 months after the 3DS with (roughly) equal third party support



HappySqurriel said:

I think there are a few too many unknowns to really make an accurate prediction at this point in time ...

First off, the NGP is far enough away from launching that it is entirely possible it could see a much later release than most people are expecting today; and if the NGP launched 6 months after the 3DS it would (obviously) have a much smaller sales gap between the 3DS than if it launches 18 months after the 3DS.

Then there is the price of the NGP and its games because it is possible that the NGP will launch for $400 (or more) with $60 (or higher) games. While people may see value in the NGP if it is cost competitive, the higher the price is the more likely it is that the NGP will struggle to find a market.

On top of that we have questions about third party support. To everyone who is paying attention the 3DS is getting dramatically better third party support starting at launch, and we know little about how third party publishers are supporting the NGP. Obviously, having stronger third party support can only benefit a platform.

 

When you start adding these things together and you ask how well the following systems would compete against the 3DS, odds are pretty good that you would have dramatically different answers.

1) A $400/$450 NGP with $60/$70 games launching 18 months after the 3DS with weaker third party support

2) A $300/$350 NGP with $50/$60 games launching 6 months after the 3DS with (roughly) equal third party support


I still see 3DS winning with a wide margin on either scenarios.  I don't think it'll be 200 million like what other guys here think, but it'll be a significant margin. PSP launched a month or two after the DS did and look what happened there. At the end of the day what will make or brake this competition is who could make the most monies of their hardware for both NIntendo and Sony along with their third party.



I still can't see anyone wanting to pay $50-70 for a game for a handheld. The 3DS' likely $40 price point is bad enough. Granted, the NGP is supposed to be more of a "do-it-all" type of thing, with the 3G and all, but still...I don't see much third-party support for the NGP outside of the Sony-obligated ones simply because of the development costs. If the highest selling PSP game for 2010 outside of MHP3 sold 1.5 million, then that's barely enough to sustain the development costs for the game right there. Not sustainable at all.

And I think that more people would spring for the 3DS if it reached a $200 price point, or at least included a game at the $250 price point. A Wii costs less than $250. But the fact that the 3DS will likely be more affordable all around is a plus, so it will likely outsell the NGP by a 3:2 or 2:1 ratio, I'd think.

NGP: 50-60 million WW

3DS: 90-100 million WW