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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 3DS vs NGP prediction thread.

Seeing how the DS as a whole outsold the PSP by a margin of 80M this generation (and growing); does anyone want to predict how badly 3DS will destroy the NGP this coming generation.  Or will NGP outsell (highly unlikely) the 3DS this time around.  I'm looking at each of their killer app the 3DS being 3D and NGP having a touch input at the back of their system (kinda' gimmicky IMHO); and I'm giving the 3DS the win.  I'm predicting a 20M sales gap before the NGP arrives and probably 100M by the end of their lifetime. So what do you guys think is it possible or am having too much of Miyamoto's mushrooms again?



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I think the range will be 15 million gap by launch, and eventually 50 million (plus)   gap at the end. 



 

The 3DS will outsell it by 100 million units. 

But the twist is that the NGP will move 1.4 billion units. 



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Yeah well it really is a range of possibilities. I wouldn't actually be surprised however if Nintendo releases a new form factor handheld which isn't of the DS line in about four years.

GB -> GBC -> GBA

DS -> DSi -> 3DS

???

Yeah I know I missed a few changes but I counted what I thought were the major revisions. If the GBA was the last of the GB line then the 3DS may be the last of the DS line with the 3D value being incorporated into an entirely new handheld form factor with the 3DS holding the fort for backwards compatibility to the DS.



Tease.

Acevil said:

I think the range will be 15 million gap by launch, and eventually 50 million (plus)   gap at the end. 


I think you're being a little conservative with 15M gap by launch.  The 3DS will launch at least 6-7months before the NGP and casual techies will love to show off this portable glasses-free portable.  Plus, the 3DS will/should have the price advantage over the NGP during both their first Christmas holiday.  IF and that's a big IF Nintendo can keep up with demand and really follow-up with a steady flow of software I could see the 3DS selling around 25-30M by the end of 2011 with NGP selling between 4-6 million from oct11-dec11.



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Squilliam said:

Yeah well it really is a range of possibilities. I wouldn't actually be surprised however if Nintendo releases a new form factor handheld which isn't of the DS line in about four years.

GB -> GBC -> GBA

DS -> DSi -> 3DS

???

Yeah I know I missed a few changes but I counted what I thought were the major revisions. If the GBA was the last of the GB line then the 3DS may be the last of the DS line with the 3D value being incorporated into an entirely new handheld form factor with the 3DS holding the fort for backwards compatibility to the DS.

It's possible...but I really think Nintendo's on fire at the moment.  With the upcoming 3DS, Nintendo potentially could have their three pillar strategy.  The regular DS is not going anywhere for quite a while, the Wii is still a player in the console wars, and the 3DS is the next big thing.  The DS could cater to kids and casuals who prefer cheap and value conscious content, the Wii continues to be the premiere entry level motion gaming console, and 3DS is the mercedes of the the handheld and will MoSDef pick up both hardcore and casual gamers alike.



Squilliam said:

Yeah well it really is a range of possibilities. I wouldn't actually be surprised however if Nintendo releases a new form factor handheld which isn't of the DS line in about four years.

GB -> GBC -> GBA

DS -> DSi -> 3DS

???

Yeah I know I missed a few changes but I counted what I thought were the major revisions. If the GBA was the last of the GB line then the 3DS may be the last of the DS line with the 3D value being incorporated into an entirely new handheld form factor with the 3DS holding the fort for backwards compatibility to the DS.


Actually DSi is more like the GBA SP, it wasn't a full revision.

Heres how I'd put it

GB -> GBC -> GBA/GBA SP

DS/DSi -> 3Ds -> ???



TheNoobHolocaust said:
Squilliam said:

Yeah well it really is a range of possibilities. I wouldn't actually be surprised however if Nintendo releases a new form factor handheld which isn't of the DS line in about four years.

GB -> GBC -> GBA

DS -> DSi -> 3DS

???

Yeah I know I missed a few changes but I counted what I thought were the major revisions. If the GBA was the last of the GB line then the 3DS may be the last of the DS line with the 3D value being incorporated into an entirely new handheld form factor with the 3DS holding the fort for backwards compatibility to the DS.


Actually DSi is more like the GBA SP, it wasn't a full revision.

Heres how I'd put it

GB -> GBC -> GBA/GBA SP

DS/DSi -> 3Ds -> ???

This is interesting but I don't see Nintendo improving the 3DS screen anymore drastically as the gbc to gba sp.  maybe make it amoled also and make it larger but is that considered a new ds version?  I also agree with the 20 mil or more gap with ngp; though 100 mil gap would be a step back for sony.



Still too early to tell... We don't know the price of the NGP, it's still more than 9 months (at least) away, etc.

But if I had to make a prediction the only one I would do now is that both probably won't reach the sales of their predecessors.



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oni-link said:
Squilliam said:

Yeah well it really is a range of possibilities. I wouldn't actually be surprised however if Nintendo releases a new form factor handheld which isn't of the DS line in about four years.

GB -> GBC -> GBA

DS -> DSi -> 3DS

???

Yeah I know I missed a few changes but I counted what I thought were the major revisions. If the GBA was the last of the GB line then the 3DS may be the last of the DS line with the 3D value being incorporated into an entirely new handheld form factor with the 3DS holding the fort for backwards compatibility to the DS.

It's possible...but I really think Nintendo's on fire at the moment.  With the upcoming 3DS, Nintendo potentially could have their three pillar strategy.  The regular DS is not going anywhere for quite a while, the Wii is still a player in the console wars, and the 3DS is the next big thing.  The DS could cater to kids and casuals who prefer cheap and value conscious content, the Wii continues to be the premiere entry level motion gaming console, and 3DS is the mercedes of the the handheld and will MoSDef pick up both hardcore and casual gamers alike.

@ Noobburner: I see your point, that lineage works too.

I sort of see their developing a handheld which completely drops the old Gameboy lineage given the shape of the bottom of the DS/3DS in order to incorporate new values. Sony was able to incorporate new controls and gameplay akin to smartphones because they were more flexible in that regard. Nintendo on the other hand are limited so long as they retain the old Gameboy control scheme.



Tease.