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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Official NPD Dec 2010 Thread (Nov 28-Jan 1, data at 6:30 PM ET)

LOL lets divert the all the  attention to GT5 because of the massive overtrack and adjustments that just happened LMAO!



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aaaand more people chiming in with the GT5 doomzed comment...few actually said it 'bombed'? Really now? -_-

I would love to see you folks congratulating it for hitting 5mil too btw...oh wait >_>  it will sell just fine, the game is about legs WW. let's see where it's at by next holiday season.



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oh and if you want to talk about genuine bombs, please look at games like lost on shadows..now THAT has the making of an epic bomb



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so udraw sold more than 500k then, awesome

DKCR and Epic Mickey's sales are awesome, I wonder what JD2 got



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I have price cuts for Wii and PS3 ($50 each) in April 2011. Both can justify it with expensive new portable hw releasing that fiscal year.

In the USA for Jan - Dec 2011 Wii / X360 should be around 6-6.5m in 2011, PS3 around 4m, DS around 6-7m. PSP 1m, PS2 irrelevant. Those figures assume price cuts for Wii / PS3. 

I don't buy that the Wii lineup is super weak for 2011 - Just Dance 2 is going to sell like crack for at least another quarter (it sold 5m in three months), pushing systems, and we know Zelda is in 2011. That's essentially two quarters covered. Then you have minor stuff to support JD2 in Q1 - De Blob, Mario Sports Mix, and the big games still selling from 2006-2010 mainly DKC, Kirby, NSMB Wii, EA Sports Active 1-2, JD1, JD Kids, Epic MIckey, Galaxy 2 and Goldeneye. THQ put alot of $$ into the Wii Tablet - that thing should get a fair amount of support, at least from THQ, in 2011.

If the weak quarter for Wii content is Q2 2011, because of the 3DS, then thats the ideal time for the Wii price cut. Once 3DS is launched, I figure Rhythm Heaven, Mario Party 9, some of Nintendo's B stuff that is mostly outsourced to smaller companies for development, and then published by Nintendo, will show up in Q3 for Wii.

There should be a ton of dance games released for both Wii and X360 throughout the year as that genre is exploding to keep pushing hw, and actually thats my main issue with Sony in 2011 - no big dance games seem likely to come. I'd also say with PSP2 coming, some of Sony's top teams are just about done with PS3, which might impact the ability of the system to get exclusives in the future as in the USA the long established pattern is main stream / casual / nintendo games do very well on Wii, violent / hardcore games do well on X360 - PS3 is in second place for both types of game here. I'm sure alot of Japanese teams will be moving to 3DS / PSP2 also, as a console hasn't been the top third party market in Japan since 2004 or so. I know personally my interest in the current machines will take a big hit when top Japanese developed games stop arriving en masse and I can't be the only one. I'm also expecting PS3 and Wii to get some ports / to give some ports to PSP2 and 3DS which will help broaden their libraries, as companies experiment more on the portables now.

For the holidays, I figure we'll get two-three EAD games for 3DS and a couple big exclusives from third parties, some major PSP2 content from Sony, Capcom and Konami but little from western developers, Zelda, Just Dance 2, and a couple random B games from Nintendo / third parties for Wii, Gears / RE / Last Guardian / and a couple major projects for PS3 / X360 - but overwhelmingly sequels that won't push hw, except on Kinect / Move which will see breakouts for dancing / fitness and core titles (for Move think Wii in 2 007 when publishers made stuff like Zack & Wiki, Bully, etc) respectively. At $150 / $250 I'd expect Wii / PS3 figures to be pretty flat in Nov - Dec despite dropping slightly overall against 2010.



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M.U.G.E.N said:

oh and if you want to talk about genuine bombs, please look at games like lost on shadows..now THAT has the making of an epic bomb

really? you are comparing GT5 with Lost in Shadow?

OT: Who would have thought VGC would overtrack GT5 but undertrack Epic Mickey? I was expecting the other way around.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.

M.U.G.E.N said:

aaaand more people chiming in with the GT5 doomzed comment...few actually said it 'bombed'? Really now? -_-

I would love to see you folks congratulating it for hitting 5mil too btw...oh wait >_>  it will sell just fine, the game is about legs WW. let's see where it's at by next holiday season.

Try harder.



CGI-Quality said:

GT5 comes from a franchise known to have lasting sales (even in the States). It appears to be overtracked by 130k here on the Chartz, but not that big of a deal. I still expect it to leg it's way to 2.5 mill in the States. It has lost a bit of it's brand power in the US & JP, but it's still over 5 million WW after 6 weeks and still a strong franchise.

As for the 360's scenario, like GT5, with holidays come adjustments. Nothing uncommon. Despite them, it had a stellar holiday, thanks to Kinect/360S!

Hmm, 2.5 for states alone is too much IMO. Isn't it just over 1 mill atm? I think past games like GOW3, LBP and U3 have done well legs wise because good word of mouth and fact they HAVN'T come from big existing franchises. I don't think GT5 is going to get amazing word of mouth, and I think apart from continental Europe, GT5's legs are going to be dissapointing to the hefty expectations some people have here.

But, I could be wrong, not the first time.



 

saicho said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

oh and if you want to talk about genuine bombs, please look at games like lost on shadows..now THAT has the making of an epic bomb

really? you are comparing GT5 with Lost in Shadow?

OT: Who would have thought VGC would overtrack GT5 but undertrack Epic Mickey? I was expecting the other way around.


not at all, don't look for things that aren't there, I don't make random comparisons like some around here to prove my point.  I said if you want an example of a bomb, look at that title, it may be a bit early to say so but a game can't get off to a worse start than that. From what I have read it's a good game too, so that's a shame.



In-Kat-We-Trust Brigade!

"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

For All News/Info related to the PlayStation Vita, Come and join us in the Official PSV Thread!

pedrron said:
M.U.G.E.N said:

aaaand more people chiming in with the GT5 doomzed comment...few actually said it 'bombed'? Really now? -_-

I would love to see you folks congratulating it for hitting 5mil too btw...oh wait >_>  it will sell just fine, the game is about legs WW. let's see where it's at by next holiday season.

Try harder.


it's effortless, to show the facts actually. maybe try harder is an advice you should take ;)



In-Kat-We-Trust Brigade!

"This world is Merciless, and it's also very beautiful"

For All News/Info related to the PlayStation Vita, Come and join us in the Official PSV Thread!