By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - I just realized that Nintendo will stay in first place for a long time

After Nintendo has the next generation of handhelds pretty much locked with the 3DS, it got me thinking about how things will play out on the home console side and it looks like Nintendo is going to stay on top for a long time there too.

Ever since Nintendo entered this business with the NES and re-established the video game market, there has been some sort of counter culture. For example, "Genesis does what Nintendon't". The competition defines itself as being "not Nintendo" while Nintendo obviously is "Nintendo" (at least most of the time). While Sega got eventually pushed out of the market by Sony, Microsoft reached parity with Sony due to their much deeper pockets.

As long as both Sony and Microsoft stay in the market, neither one of them will be able to beat Nintendo, because the counter culture remains to be split up between them. This counter culture traditionally consists for the most part of male people aged 13-25. It's this age group that makes it necessary for Sony and Microsoft to continue to make more and more "mature" games with the most imaginative and violent ways to kill things.

Many of the biggest third party hits in today's market are also targeted at the same demographic, so Sony and Microsoft will take care to not lose any of those games to the other company. Which means that their next consoles will again be very similar, because neither one of them would want to run into the risk of ending up with a Wii, a console that most third parties pass on because it requires a different approach to make successful games.

Third parties basically want to do things the same way, they are against change. And since Sony and Microsoft want to have third parties on board, they won't want change either. Neither do most of Sony's and Microsoft's main demographic, other consoles becoming like Nintendo is the last thing they would want to see.

All that leaves the ball in Nintendo's court. If they continue to be "Nintendo" they should be fine. However, if they try to become "not Nintendo", like in the Nintendo 64 and Gamecube eras, they will be facing trouble. During those two generations Nintendo tried to sell to the 13-25 year old demographic and we know they failed. But by doing so they also lost their previous fans, because they ceased to be "Nintendo". No 2D Mario, the mother of all killer applications, for two entire generations. This among other things made Nintendo almost slide into complete irrelevance.

But now with two giants fighting over the counter culture and Nintendo being "Nintendo" again, it's unlikely that either Sony or Microsoft will take the crown in the foreseeable future. Both are stuck in their box and trying to break out of it could mean ending up being left with nothing. A risk that probably neither one of them is going to take as gaming is their gateway to get the center of the living rooms in the world in order to sell more than just video games.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Around the Network

Good read, but Sony and Microst are both trying to break out of their boxes too, Sony with the Move and MS with the Kinect.

With the Kinect at least MS should have some success since it's something different and not just the Wii , but I see the Move as another forgotten peripheral and will keep Sony in their box.  That said, I don't see the Kinect being the thing that makes MS take Nintendo's lead.



As long as Nintendo controls the family and child game market, of course they will be ahead.

Call that trolling, or whatever, that's the bare truth.

Nintendo are currently an astounding success because they appeal to those two big markets, and the others, although trying, don't.



I really hope that Nintendo never stops being "Nintendo" and that Microsoft and Sony continue to be "not Nintendo."  I think I'd die if I see a GC-esque or N64-esque scenario where Nintendo tries to be 'hardcore' and pander to the 13 to 25 year old demographic only to fall under the heel of Playstation and Xbox.  I love that the DS/Wii generation has allowed for a renaissance of sorts at Nintendo's philosophy of what gaming as a whole can be to different people.  At the very least, I hope that there's a New Super Mario Bros. (Insert Nintendo 6's name here) in the forseeable future.  I'd love to see that over "Alien Shooter #8123 now with Jetpacks, Time and Gravity manipulation, and EXTREME space marines."

My thoughts of course.



Pixel Art can be fun.

If the next generation home console from Nintendo is anything like the 3DS was to the DS, I suspect Nintendo has this one wrapped up for another generation at least. Since the generation is going to be longer and the next generation likely to be as long, that means its Nintendo all the way for the better part of this current decade at least. If Nintendo is unstoppable with no wide spectrum 3rd party support, then they will be rolstoppable if they get that as well.



Around the Network

As twesterm said, Sony and Microsoft are trying to break out of their box. Time will tell if they'll be successful, but I think the control schemes they've come up with are something we're going to see more of in the coming generations.

I don't think they'll be locked down like you're predicting. They're certainly not suddenly going to jump to Nintendo levels of popularity in the expanded audience out of the blue, but I think they will expand into it eventually, whether it starts with games or other offerings.

EDIT: I forgot my actual point. I think Nintendo will remain in the lead, but both Microsoft and Sony will see satisfactory success as well, probably more so than right now.



The future of home consoles regarding sales is very unclear IMO. The reason for that is mainly because we have a much bigger casual audience because of the Wii (and DS, of course, but I'm talking about home consoles now). Previous consoles that have sold more than the competition did that because of exclusives (mainly), but that changed with the Wii. As long as Nintendo keeps the casuals mainly on their side by doing innovative things before the competition does and also by having the cheapest console from the beginning, they will keep the lead in the console war.

Sony and MS definitly try to get in the casual market, but they are actually improving on already done things (EyeToy and Wiimote). As I see it the places in this gen are alread set. Next gen everything could happen.



2012 - Top 3 [so far]

                                                                             #1                                       #2                                      #3

      

BBH said:

As long as Nintendo controls the family and child game market, of course they will be ahead.

Call that trolling, or whatever, that's the bare truth.

Nintendo are currently an astounding success because they appeal to those two big markets, and the others, although trying, don't.

I don't think it's bad that Nintendo has control of those markets and I don't see how what you're saying is trolling.  I just hate the mentality that this market is everything that ails gaming and will change it to something the 13-25 year old demographic don't want it to be.  There will be the titles you want to see, just speak with your money.  The day the 13-25 year old demographic stop buying games will the day MS, Sony, and their third party partners shift accordingly.



Pixel Art can be fun.

SmokedHostage said:
BBH said:

As long as Nintendo controls the family and child game market, of course they will be ahead.

Call that trolling, or whatever, that's the bare truth.

Nintendo are currently an astounding success because they appeal to those two big markets, and the others, although trying, don't.

I don't think it's bad that Nintendo has control of those markets and I don't see how what you're saying is trolling.  I just hate the mentality that this market is everything that ails gaming and will change it to something the 13-25 year old demographic don't want it to be.  There will be the titles you want to see, just speak with your money.  The day the 13-25 year old demographic stop buying games will the day MS, Sony, and their third party partners shift accordingly.

It's not, but every time I even mention children and Nintendo in the same sentence on this site I usually get called out for it.

You're right - it's no bad thing at all, Nintendo provide something different to different people and at the minute they are business gold dust.



BBH said:

It's not, but every time I even mention children and Nintendo in the same sentence on this site I usually get called out for it.

You're right - it's no bad thing at all, Nintendo provide something different to different people and at the minute they are business gold dust.


It's E for Everyone.