I see a BIG problem for Kinect right now.
They showed nothing about Kinect that will support the existing owners of Xbox 360s. No Halo or Gear support for Kinect. So there isn't a big incentive for these people to get it.
If the Kinect costs say $150, that will bring the total price to $450. No way in hell are you going to get many people to buy in at that price when the Wii costs $250 less.
The games for core gamers will take longer to make. It's a little unreasonable to expect core games to be developed using a completely new control paradigm in one year or even a year and a half,
In Wii's first year and a half, Nintendo delivered...
- The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess
- Excite Truck
- Super Paper Mario
- Pokemon Battle Revolution
- Mario Strikers: Charged
- Metroid Prime 3: Corruption
- BWii: Batallion Wars II
- Donkey Kong: Barrel Blast
- Link's Crossbow Training
- Super Mario Galaxy
- Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
- Super Smash Bros. Brawl
- Mario Kart Wii
...and almost all of them were present at E3 2006. This in addition to new casual fare (Wii Sports, Wii Play, Endless Ocean, Wii Fit) and old adapted casual fare (Wario Ware: Smooth Moves, Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree, Mario Party 8).
So all those games took a year or a year and a half to make? Sony may now be using the slogan "This Changes Everything" (or Apple or whoever they copied it from) but Kinect really does change everything for games. It's much easier to tack on what amounts to a mouse in another form than it is to use something truly revolutionary like Kinect.
No, but they all came within a year and half of launch. And most of them were shown off half a year before Wii launch too, which is exactly the timeline we see for Kinect. And at the time, yes the Wiimote really did change everything for console games, and some developers still haven't come to grips with it.
Honestly, I just expected better. Outside Forza 3, Kinect felt hugely one sided towards casuals, there was literally almost nothing present for the base to care about. It's like Move's GDC flop all over again... maybe you didn't expect better from Microsoft, but I'm sad to say I did. :/