I’m going to write more about this shortly but having had my iPad for about 3 weeks I have to say that the iPad and other devices like it are going to murder large sections of the Windows based market.
And as a Windows software developer, that doesn’t make me happy.
If you are producing “stuff” the Windows-centric world is still central. But for everyone else who are consumers of content, these new devices are a huge threat.
It’s not the form factor per se. Not that it’s a “tablet”. I’ll boil it down:
1. Instant on. It just works. I want to check email, look at my schedule for the day, look at Facebook, view something on YouTube, check out some news headlines, or just watch a movie, the iPad (and future devices of its class) are just much more convenient.
I love my ThinkPad T400. But when I go to it, I have to pray whether it’ll come out of sleep. If it does come out of sleep, it’ll be slow. Maybe it will be out of batteries. Who knows. What I do know is that it’s far too slow as a consumer device. Netbooks are even worse. It seems like such a little thing – instant on. But it’s the difference between a DVR and a VCR in terms of leap of effective functionality.
2. Speed. Similar to #1, I can check my email, look at my various RSS feeds and scan my schedule in less than 30 seconds. On a Windows based PC, I’d still be waiting for Outlook to get done doing its thing or dealing with some Windows update that came in during the night that rebooted my machine. (and yes, I know you can alter these settings but with Windows, Microsoft has made productivity the enemy and made all the defaults set to fight productivity). If I just want to check something out on Wikipedia or check a web page, nothing beats the speed of an iPad (or a future Android based tablet).
3. The App store. I have downloaded (and paid for) a lot of $2.00 programs that are just amazing. It’s not that you couldn’t make these on the PC, it’s just that people would scream that it should be free. And as a developer, I can tell you, I won’t spend time making stuff “for free” when I could be spending that time with my kids unless it’s a labor of love. As a result, a lot of cool little programs are being made because developers can actually get paid for making cool stuff.
Now, some of these things apply to an iPod Touch or an Android mobile device or an iPhone. But the form factor (size of the device) are key here in terms of usability.
The 3 things I mention here are so outshine the Windows PC experience that if Microsoft doesn’t get off its duff and start addressing them soon then I predict Windows will become purely a content creation device whose content is primarily consumed elsewhere. There’s really no excuse that in 2010, Windows is in the shape its in (particularly with regard to instant on).
The iPad is only the beginning. Once Android devices and WebOS devices show up, it could spell the beginning of the end of Windows dominance.
'Frogboy' is the CEO of Stardock.
