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Sorry I haven't updated in a while.

Well, we're three months (13 weeks) in, and No Way Home is still making decent money. It has had surprisingly strong legs. Looks like I was wrong about it falling just short of $800M. As of Thursday night, it was sitting at $794,343,553, making another $6.1M in Week 13, about flat from Week 12. It should pass the $800M mark some time during Week 15. Right now, it's entirely possible that it could get to $810-815M, maybe even $820M. It depends on how much its release to home video affects its box office returns in the coming weeks.

With $116.42M grossed from Week 5 through Week 13, it now has the third-highest post-Week 4 gross of any major 21st century blockbuster, just slightly ahead of previous #3-ranked The Force Awakens and just a few million behind the current #2 Black Panther.

The #1 spot will probably forever be held by Avatar, which had an adjusted post-Week 4 gross of over $336M. Since sequels are almost always more front-loaded than their original, Avatar 2, etc., even if they do extremely well, likely won't have the legs of the original. Back to Spider-Man, its only a matter of days before it surpasses Black Panther's post-Week 4 gross. Assuming it gets to at least $810M, its gross from Week 5 to the end of its run should be at least $132M.

However, it is worth pointing out that No Way Home made less money in both January and February than Jumanji did in Jan. & Feb. 2018, this despite having the second-largest gross for the month of December of any film ever. Based on remarks made several years back by one of our board's more astute box office analysts, Jumanji's legs, both in nominal and relative terms, are the bar all other December blockbusters must be measured against. So, by those standards, that means No Way Home was actually a bit of a disappointment. :p

Moving along...

In terms of percentage of lifetime gross from Week 5 onward, No Way Home is not especially impressive, being well within the norm for a major blockbuster. That percentage does continue to creep upward with each passing week, but once it's all said and done its post-Week 4 gross should represent a share of its lifetime gross comparable to Black Panther, The Dark Knight, The Avengers, and Spider-Man '02, which in turn had their post-Week 4 shares not be drastically higher than most other big blockbusters. The normal share for post-Week 4 grosses is about 10-15% of the lifetime share, though exceptions exist (e.g., Avatar, Endgame). What put No Way Home's post-Week 4 gross ahead of everything except Avatar was its absolutely monster opening month. After that, all it needed were relatively normal legs to ensure strong numbers past its first month in theaters.

I will update the woefully out of date charts in the OP soon. If not today, then maybe tomorrow evening.

EDIT: Charts in OP updated through Week 8. I'll add some more charts once the film is done running in theaters.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 19 March 2022


In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").