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No, I don't think it will.

As always, a basic premise is the combined PS+Xbox market which has slightly declined with each passing generation. It's the result of the growth in developing markets being unable to offset the declines in mature markets. It doesn't look like that's going to change this generation, so the ceiling is around 165m. It's not going to help matters that now both Sony and Microsoft put their games on the PC. Microsoft all of them on day 1, Sony still testing the waters.

Of these 165m, the majority will go to Sony due to their better global presence. That's capping the Xbox Series X|S at 82m, so it's not going to be enough to top  the Xbox 360 even in the theoretical best case scenario. More realistically, the best case scenario for Microsoft is 65-70m which would put Sony in the range of 95-100m.

Microsoft is too dependent on the USA and the UK as their sales drivers, so their global reach is too limited to pass 85m lifetime. They'd need something extraordinary to get there, such as a generation that lasts 9-10 years before replacement.

While both PS and Xbox had higher initial demand and sales than ever before - before the chip shortages hit - the same thing was the case during the PS4 and Xbox One generation which ultimately fell short of matching their predecessors despite the introduction of mid-gen upgrades that worked as incentive for more double-dipping on console purchases. That's why there shouldn't be too much stock put into year 1 and year 2 sales when it comes to figuring out lifetime sales. The important question is if either Sony or Microsoft are doing anything significant to bring in customers they didn't have before, and neither of them isn't showing any signs of that, except for their games by putting them on the PC. But that's only expanding the reach of their software at the expense of their hardware, and hardware is what this topic is about.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments